The Great Recession

[dex]

I'm hoping this and similar Depression type threads are a sign of a bottom in the stock market.

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

I'm hoping this and similar Depression type threads are a sign of a bottom in the stock market.

Me too.

 

[haha]

I'm hoping this and similar Depression type threads are a sign of a bottom in the stock market.

Don't hold your breath. May think that when there is pessimism around, the bottom must be near. Often his is far from true. Not everybody is stupid, so some will always be pointing in the right direction.

Japan is 21 years and counting into their slump. For much of this time, especially over the last 10 years, the consensus opinion has been very negative. Their market is still bumping along at about 25% of its 1989 peak.

Ha

 

[Leonidas]

I like the chart. My first thought was to wonder what a chart for the Great Depression would look like. What percentage went without food today? etc.

 

[REWahoo]

Interesting that 49% reported loaning money to someone while only 24% reported borrowing from friends/family. Are we to surmise half the folks who loaned money did so to strangers? Or maybe twice as many folks borrowed money but won't admit it?

 

[ziggy29]

Interesting that 49% reported loaning money to someone while only 24% reported borrowing from friends/family. Are we to surmise half the folks who loaned money did so to strangers? Or maybe twice as many folks borrowed money but won't admit it?

Or maybe the people who borrowed did so repeatedly? If I borrow from two different people, that's two lenders and one borrower...

 

[kyounge1956]

Interesting that 49% reported loaning money to someone while only 24% reported borrowing from friends/family. Are we to surmise half the folks who loaned money did so to strangers? Or maybe twice as many folks borrowed money but won't admit it?

Maybe 24% borrowed from two friends/relatives apiece.

 

[Zathras]

Or they loaned money to someone not in the age range of the survey.

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

Another chart. Long term unemployment was/is really bad this time.

 

[ziggy29]

Another chart. Long term unemployment was/is really bad this time.

And let's not forget how much the official numbers understate actual unemployment and underemployment. 9.5%? I'll bet the real number is north of 15% if you include *everyone* currently hoping for full-time work and can't find it.

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

And let's not forget how much the official numbers understate actual unemployment and underemployment. 9.5%? I'll bet the real number is north of 15% if you include *everyone* currently hoping for full-time work and can't find it.

No argument from me on that one!

Still another chart.
all from Calculated Risk

 

[dex]

And let's not forget how much the official numbers understate actual unemployment and underemployment. 9.5%? I'll bet the real number is north of 15% if you include *everyone* currently hoping for full-time work and can't find it.

Also, I think the government change the primary number from U6 to U3 so you have to be careful when comparing numbers. I think the change was made in '94.

 

[ziggy29]

Also, I think the government change the primary number from U6 to U3 so you have to be careful when comparing numbers. I think the change was made in '94.

Yep. U6 is what, something like 16-17% last time I checked?

 

[Gumby]

As of June 2010 -- 16.5% seasonally adjusted, 16.7% unadjusted

From the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Table A-15. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

 

[dex]

Yep. U6 is what, something like 16-17% last time I checked?

Interesting how no one in the media brings that up. Then again they probaly don't understand it.

just from a quick search

Bear Market Comparison; U6 Unemployment

U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression | The Economic Populist

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

Here is another chart from the same site
Calculated Risk: Weekly Summary and a Look Ahead

and here is the accompanying text

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) was at 8.63 million in June. This was a slight decline from May - and was a little bit of good news.

The all time record of 9.24 million was set in October.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that was at 16.5% in June.

 

[FUEGO]

I know a lot of people in the engineering community that are technically part time right now (at 32 to 36 hours per week). Basically a 10-20% pay cut with a cut in hours. So technically part time. Sometimes the cut in hours is ephemeral, as they are still expected to get the same amount of work done, and complete the same level of marketing, networking, professional development etc. 10-20% cut in pay isn't the end of the world for many, although it will undoubtedly affect their spending decisions.

Then again, our firm has had a quarter of our employees leave voluntarily in the last 8 months to go to better jobs for more money. It is fairly easy to replace employees since the pool of applicants is bigger. During the boom times, it was nearly impossible to find qualified people and hiring managers are loving getting lots of resumes and having a choice among a number of good candidates.

 

[IndependentlyPoor]

These folks put 20% down and still walked away. Yikes!
Video: Mission Crest - latimes.com

 

[tryan]

Amazing to me that a lost of less than 200k has people saying "screw-it ... I am all done". Tossing in the towel at or at least near the bottom.

Drive thru that neighbor in 10-12 years it'll be everything they had hoped for. But everyone wants it all now, now, now.

 

[dex]

These folks put 20% down and still walked away. Yikes!
Video: Mission Crest - latimes.com

When this recession hits bottom we all will be saying, what were we thinking, how didn't we see this coming and 'off with their heads'.

 

[Lazarus]

Not sure what their problem is. Can they not make the payments? Sounds like it since they had their loan readjusted. Not all the story here. Bet there is second mortgage and the house is not worth what they owe. "We are the responsible ones". Well, not any more.