Global Warming Poll

Global Warming is

  • Real, it is caused by humans, and we should try to do something about it

    Votes: 58 50.0%
  • Real, it is not caused by humans, and we should try to do something about it

    Votes: 7 6.0%
  • Real, it is caused by humans, and we should not try to do anything about it

    Votes: 6 5.2%
  • Real, it is not caused by humans, and we should not try to do anything about it

    Votes: 24 20.7%
  • Not real, and we should try to do something about it just in case

    Votes: 5 4.3%
  • Not real, and we should not try to do anything about it

    Votes: 16 13.8%

  • Total voters
    116
Erd50, just a friendly observation. IMO, you need to find another hobby. There's another thread about famous movie posts. Here's one, from "White Men Can't Jump."

"sometimes when you win you lose. And sometimes when you lose, you win."

just my $.02 (take it for what it's worth--I'm no technical expert in global warming, but I can recognize an obsession when I see one).
 
I know we are debating about whether GW is caused by man or whether or not we can do something but I worry much more about the potential side effects of GW -- none of which to my knowledge we are prepared for. So debate away, it will solve very little in terms of what we can do to prepare for the impact of GW. Oh wait, our govt's style is to wait for catastrophic things to happen and then react. Nevermind...
 
Erd50, just a friendly observation. IMO, you need to find another hobby.

equally friendly, bosco - the overall subject of energy conservation, alternate energy sources, pollution, and now Global Warming *is* one of my hobbies. I find it a fascinating blend of technology, finance, science, and is a lesson in public perception and politics. Oh, and since the decisions we make today may very well impact our kids and grandkids (financially if not environmentally), well, maybe it's a better hobby than stamp collecting, or whatever. But, to each their own.

Unless by 'hobby' you meant trying to make sense of CFB's posts. Yeah, you got a point there. ;)

.... am a National Beer judge, ...

If it makes you feel better, I'm bottling a 'clone' I brewed of a Boont Amber Ale later today. Three week primary, no secondary. Lots of people at this brewing forum ( The Northern Brewer Homebrew Forum :: Index) say that works great for an Ale. First time I tried a 'clone' recipe ( from 'Beer Captured'), I usually just look at recipes and adjust to something I think I'll like.

just my $.02 (take it for what it's worth--I'm no technical expert in global warming, but I can recognize an obsession when I see one).
Hobby, obsession - what's the difference? ;)

Yeah, but the media and our politicians seem pretty obsessed about it. Just trying to stay informed on the subject and try to inform others. Our politicians are good at giving us 'solutions' (satire) like ethanol, hydrogen, etc. I think it's good citizenship and stewardship to try to stay informed of the real impacts of the proposed solutions.

And I only started *one* (IIRC) of the threads on the topic, so it seems others are interested too.

But, I still get your point. ;)

Well, off to sanitize some bottles.... -ERD50
 
If it makes you feel better, I'm bottling a 'clone' I brewed of a Boont Amber Ale later today. Three week primary, no secondary. Lots of people at this brewing forum ( The Northern Brewer Homebrew Forum :: Index) say that works great for an Ale. First time I tried a 'clone' recipe ( from 'Beer Captured'), I usually just look at recipes and adjust to something I think I'll like.

Hobby, obsession - what's the difference? ;)

point taken

cheers!! :cool:
 
...Oh wait, our govt's style is to wait for catastrophic things to happen and then react. Nevermind...

These are the same people that many want to run our healthcare system. The horror, The horror...
 
ERD:

I’m back and less prone to babbling today. I hope.

You said this the other day:

That is not to say we don't have serious problems today, but let's not view the past in rosy-colored revisionist-history glasses. Things are *so much* better today!

And yes, I do think that we need to look at Global Warming and pollution as separate (but often inter-twined) issues. I'll throw this one out again: We can sequester the CO2 from coal plants, but... the coal plant will use 30% more coal. Hmmm, we aren't quite sure how much that reduction of CO2 will mitigate global warming, but we do know that 30% more coal mining means more destruction of forests, more run-off, more loss of habitat, etc. I think it's important to understand which of those is the 'right' thing to do. That is not the same as doing nothing.


My pre-argument:

A few months back while staring at Fidel Castro on the wall, the DW and I were discussing the state of health care in this country. We both know the real solution to the problem: just do more of what the doctors (experts?) tell you and less of what the advertisers tell you. A very simple solution. For example, if the doctor says eat less meat and after a few months you probably can get off that Lipitor stuff, you should do it; or if he says lose a bit of weight and eat less salt and you probably can get off that high blood pressure medication, you should try to do that too. If one just did these little things, life could be much better, more vibrant, freer (less burdensome and costly). And over time folks would start having much better life endings also, with fewer complications arising as one aged, fewer mad dashes by the kids to bedsides, etc, etc, etc. Life would improve enormously and would probably cost far less. And after 10-20 years, my guess is that health care expenses may drop by up to 50%--but maybe not exactly that much. This to me, anyway, is what real freedom is all about, at least as related to my own personal life: living a life less burdened by health problems so that my options are always greater, less dependent upon my lack of health and more contingent upon my good health.

Analogously, I see way too much argument about whether a Ford is better or worse than a Chevy, and far too little about how if my health was just a little bit better, I could just walk to California. This car argument over and over again is mildly superficial to my mind (although Hondas are much better than Chevys;)). Real freedom is oftentimes different that we initially imagine—or fight for, 'more better' than just having lower taxes and more money.

The Argument:

Yes things are better today--kinda. But it is more like “things are slightly different now.” We have cleaned up a lot of the old health and sanitation problems. We’ve stopped lots of diseases; we’ve cleaned up much of the grosser car pollution, etc. All good things. And we’ve done a great deal of environmental clean up in this country and passed lots of good laws that make things much, much better and make sure that it’s easy to do those chores and recycling. And we should all be very happy and proud that we all helped and created a gov’t that made these things possible . . . but now we need to step up and do more because not doing things may have very grave consequences for all and especially for our children and grandchildren.

We have a serious global warming problem—or so the vast majority of experts say. (And I defer to them, the major scientists, not the crackpot ones on the periphery of the issue).

The easiest argument to make is to just say “Let’s wait until all the evidence is in before we make a decision.” Or as our current president does (and others in the past too), we can just defer the tough decisions to the future. We have debt/bankruptcy issues among individuals because they defer the decisions to stop spending and borrowings. Our gov’t uses the exact same deferral process as individuals use, the latest being deferring the cost of our current war and lowered taxes so that it’s paid off by others, our children and grandchildren. It is basically the same sort of argument I see some conservative types make on this thread and many others.

Finally, you made a comment above about coal plants and sequestering CO2, laying out a real life problem that exists today. All true as far as I can see. But . . . a partial solution lays in Canada:D. I believe they recently passed a law that mandates no more retail incandescent lights will be sold there in the near future. Their gov’t will require everyone use floros. I read somewhere right after this law was passed that if we did the same in this country, we could build ten fewer coal-fired electrical plants each year. Wow! Nice! Poof, the problems spewing from ten plants eliminated before they’re even built. It’s like building a healthy body by doing things right in the first place, rather than treating it with Lipitor after the fact. Your CO2 argument never even makes it to first base in this context.

Windmill energy is good too, and like good, healthy behaviors developed early in life, windmill energy and other clean energy creation methods create good behaviors and prevent bad consequences from developing at a later time. This is a good thing. In fact, it may actually be well worth some extra subsidies (just as we train, expend time, effort, and money, so that our children learn to eat better) now, to prevent the bad stuff from happening later. Ask any doctor or scientist, they’ll probably tell you it’s better to solve a problem early rather than later.

Plus, floro lights actually save more electricity over their life than they initial cost. Now we need to explain to the Chinese (and help them?), that having a healthy environment actually saves them from having huge health bills and costs in the future—that they don’t have to lead superficial lives that revolve solely around accumulating money and reducing taxes and giving rise to poorer choices revolving around crappy end game pills and medicines.

[FONT=&quot]I better quit right now:rant:before um . . . well you know. [/FONT]
 
CFL bulbs, windmills...

That's the problem. People have not realized the magnitude of the cuts that are being proposed. CFBs and windmills help, yes that's true but they help only in the low single digit percentage of total emitted CO2.

If we are really serious about solving global warming we probably need to eliminate private cars. Cut electricity usage by two thirds. and so on.

The lifestyle implications are profound and far reaching and draconian. And I suspect that almost everyone when confronted with the reality of what some environmental activists are proposing will object to the solution.

Smaller cars and CFB's and windmills won't change anything.
 
Smaller cars and CFB's and windmills won't change anything.


I didnt realize I was involved with this...I guess I better go put some pants on and get to work.

Thoughtful post Greg...but jeez... even I already gave up on the guy who reads something and translates it into what he wants to hear...
 
A few months back while staring at Fidel Castro on the wall...

But if you go carrying pictures of Chairman Mao, you ain't gonna make it with anyone anyhow... John Lennon

:D

Great discussion, btw. Are humans the only creatures who foul their own nest?

Carry on... Stephen Stills
 
CFB:

You have turned into quite the overbearing blowhard, nothing good to say.

Again, My point about global warming is that proposed solutions like CFL's and windmills just won't get us there.

Or to put it another way, unless you light up you house like a department store changing all of your lights to CFLs will almost offset that new plasma TV. So where's the offset.
 
Then there is this: ]Read the sunspots
Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycle of the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan for adaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as did the Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments.
They claim to have some really compelling data.
 
Anyone see the PBS special on Global Dimming?

Some scientists now consider that the effects of global dimming have masked the effect of global warming[14] According to Beate Liepert, "We lived in a global warming plus a global dimming world and now we are taking out global dimming. So we end up with the global warming world, which will be much worse than we thought it will be, much hotter." to some extent and that resolving global dimming may therefore lead to increases in predictions of future temperature rise.
 
MasterBlaster said:

CFL bulbs, windmills...

That's the problem. People have not realized the magnitude of the cuts that are being proposed. CFBs and windmills help, yes that's true but they help only in the low single digit percentage of total emitted CO2.

If we are really serious about solving global warming we probably need to eliminate private cars. Cut electricity usage by two thirds. and so on.

The lifestyle implications are profound and far reaching and draconian. And I suspect that almost everyone when confronted with the reality of what some environmental activists are proposing will object to the solution.

Smaller cars and CFB's and windmills won't change anything.

I don't know if I agree with you, and I also see a sort of self-created defeatism in the above comment. It seems to sort of allow you to do nothing and justify it in your mind--maybe.

By analogy: if your son takes up smoking at a young age, you can whine an forbid til you're blue in the face . . . and it's possible no good comes from it. You can say that 'each cigarette does just a little bit of damage, and after a time, after maybe 20-30-40 years and millions of puffs, some black swan will probably visit itself on you. We don't know today what that black swan might be; it might simply be car accident that happens while you reach down to find the coal that fell in your lap. Or it might be cancer, or it might be emphysema or something else.' Who knows? But we do know that it is better not to pollute one's body than it is to pollute it. And that some as yet unknown negative consequence will be more likely. All sane folks know this. At least the ones I hang around with.

It's not that hard from this point to jump to the conclusion that the body Earth faces some toxic stuff brewed up on the surface. There are many different forms of it. Plus, just about every person has this strong desire to NOT do something about it because it seems to impinge on their personal life in some way. Some even think all cars will have to disappear and they'll have to go back to walking everywhere and burning candles instead of electric lights. Lots inferences/conclusions right and wrong can be drawn from global warming and the arguments extended out from the facts. (I guess that's where most politics come from: an organized but limited perspective on whatever issue is being examined; because if we knew the entire truth and all the consequences of all actions, we wouldn't make no stinkin wrong decisions ever. No one would have to bring their limited thoughts to the table to share and find a real solution.)

Oh, ohhh. There I go again.

Anyway, I don't think its a gigantic either-or situation, either continued technological advancement that requires lots of toxins or we start heading back to the stone age with little torches soaked in whale blubber and flints to light them. We can easily have both high tech advancement and reduced toxins. This means almost all folks can have cars--maybe. And simply finding methods to reduce toxins coming from them increases the likelihood that millions, maybe billions, more can be made. (That little Tata Motors air pressure car impressed me very much, 120 mpg on air pressured up by a little electricity, perhaps with electricity made from a single $50 solar panel--at some point in the future. This might happen within the next few years. I see it as within the grasp of Indian entrepreneurs in the near future. And I see it as creating a far better world soon. But Chevys are OK too--for a little while:D.
 
I didnt realize I was involved with this...I guess I better go put some pants on and get to work.

Thoughtful post Greg...but jeez... even I already gave up on the guy who reads something and translates it into what he wants to hear...

OMG, are telling us you post in the nude?
 
ERD:

I’m back ..... .

Greg, thanks for the thoughtful reply.

The agreement:

I think it's fair to say (and I'll use a cliche' to try to keep this short) that we BOTH feel it is our duty to try to leave the earth a better place than the one we entered. (harps gently sounding in the background).

I think any disagreement is over what actions can be taken to actually achieve that goal.

Health Analogy: I agree that in health matters, a little (exercise & diet) can go a long way. But with the GW issue, it looks like the IPCC is telling us that a lot of change (getting totally off fossil fuels) goes only a little way (from 16.5" flood to 13" flood, or only postpones this flooding by a few years). About 80% of the problem remains after these actions. I said before, if I thought a little (or even moderate ) amount of change could result in considerable improvement, I'd be preaching obsessively in favor of those changes.

We have a serious global warming problem—or so the vast majority of experts say.
Yes, and for the sake of this discussion, I am trying to stick to the IPCC statements and evaluate them. I'm not trying to mix in the alternate views.

The easiest argument to make is to just say “Let’s wait until all the evidence is in before we make a decision.”
Yes, easy, but that is not what I am saying. I say, let's take the IPCC report as it stands, and try to figure what we should be doing. And, if getting off fossil fuel leaves us with 80% of the problem, then I say that getting off fossil fuel is *not* a 'solution' by itself. For one, we better be planning for 13" to 16.5" of flooding, because it looks like we are going to get that no matter what we do. And if focusing on reducing fossil fuel usage detracts from planning for flooding, or draws people into complacency (whew - we solved that problem!) that is a mistake. It may not need to be an either/or thing - but we do need to evaluate and prioritize, as best we can.

CFLs and coal - MB is right, you (and him) are overstating the benefits. Going from a 60W bulb to a 14W CFL in some home lighting is good (I'm doing some of it myself), but that is going to be a minor % of total power. Found some data:


[quote='http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/lighting/chap2.html]
Residential lighting thus represents three percent of total U.S. sales of electricity to all sectors.[/quote]

So, best case - every bulb in every household changed: 14W/60W * 3% is less than 0.7% of total electrical consumption. That even overstates it - 13% of residential lighting is already regular florescent (same source), which is even more efficient than CFL. So, CFLs are fine, but a drop in the bucket.

I don't see this as 'defeatist', I see it as realistic. It takes more than good intentions to resolve problems.

I am all for alternate energy sources. It may or may not help GW much, but I'd like to reduce the environmental impact of collecting and burning fossil fuels. Price fossil fuels to represent their true cost and then let the market figure out which alternate energy sources make sense. Capitalism would jump to the challenge of providing an alternative to $0.50/kWhr electricity (or whatever it would be) like dogs on a bone. But what Congress is going to support $0.50/kWh electricity? In Illinois, there was a big debate and lots of wailing over allowing the rate to increase from the $0.08 freeze up to $0.10.

-ERD50


PS - I sure hope your computer monitor is an LCD, not an old CRT power hog! :)
 
NOTE - this is wrong:

So, best case - every bulb in every household changed: 14W/60W * 3% is less than 0.7% of total electrical consumption.


Whoops! Math error - I should have multiplied times the savings, and the dang edit button timed out...

60-14 = 46. So 46/60ths SAVED - .767. Multiply that times the 3% usage and you get a potential 2.3% reduction in electrical energy consumption. That's better, but I think we need to shoot higher than that to make meaningful change. Small changes are nice, but again, that might lead people into complacency. We need BIG changes, or BIG sources of alternate energy - probably some of both.

-ERD50
 
ERD50:

And I'll stick with my human body/health analogy not only because it can be used as a powerful explanation tool but also because organic analogies may very well be closer to the truth--maybe. Also, as you've already noticed, I don't like to go down :rolleyes: to the statistical/evidentiary level. As we both know either of us could cherry pick evidence (even from the same report) til the cows come home. But you could probably do that better than me (unless CFB helped me:bat:).

Back to the analogy: I suspect it's very rare for a person to die from one single event and or cause (discounting war and such and accidents) as related to disease. I suspect that mostly, especially older folks, die from a set of complications: One may have a black swan of cancer enter one's life, and as it progresses it may eat away the liver or attack the heart or some such thing as that. A series of cascading events precipitates death oftentimes. So too, I suspect (and I think you agree?), with what is going on with toxins in the environment. Global warming is just one specific identifiable and somewhat measurable ongoing process; it is a single facet of a larger deterioration which is dovetailed into larger, more complex whole.

Now if you believe the above, and I think you may (?), then there are multiple things you can do to fix things. Many small, incremental things that when started and worked on collectively may greatly improve the prognosis of the patient. Same with cancer patients: if you can boost their red blood cell count, keep them feeling positive about outcomes, maybe lessen the radiation treatment or whatever for a couple weeks so that the body and mind can rebalance and recover a bit, then you have a better chance of a decent recovery. These things are all incremental, small decisions, small events, small effects, etc (in this sense a doctor is more artist than scientist at times: he senses/intuits what is needed, listens carefully to the patient, and, hopefully, engineers a masterful recovery--with that natural abilities of the patient too.

Now, to slightly modify my analogy in the middle of the argument: if a excessively obese person walks into the doctors office, should the doctor think to himself "Man-oh-man, this tub-a-lard is so far gone I'm just gunna send him away." This sounds similar--to me anyway--to what you're thinking about global warming: we have so far to go just it get to a mildly reasonable place that it's not worth attempting it. Plus, it will be very painful to me and the rest of the world too. WTF! Am I close?

But the fact is that a good doctor (or a good president; or a good country that other countries respected;)) might be able turn that patient around. And that might be done by with the patient feeling good the entire time. The fatty boy could maybe get all pumped by the doctor; the fatty boy might start feeling better when he ate less food; the fatty boy might start to exercise AND enjoy it. Might, maybe, could, would, . . . . And the alternative is?

To paraphrase the Soup Nazi from Seinfeld: "NO black swan for you, fatty boy." :D

In real terms you are a bit of a drama king yourself. That IPPC report may itself be written by marginal drama kings and queens too. All this rectification of global warming doesn't have to take place tomorrow, and it doesn't mean it has to be horribly painful. It can be easily be done incrmentally and slowly. It may very well be enjoyable AND edifying. Ask Nords if he enjoys discussing and putting out solar panels? It's not all about floro bulbs or all about losing one's gas powered car. It's all about making life better and enjoying it more. Using our brains to make life better for everyone. But it might require thinking a bit less about making money or lowering taxes. Poop[, I'm a drama king too.

PS Did you know you are limited to 4 emoticons/posting? WTF?
 
OMG, are telling us you post in the nude?

Well...boxers at the time. But I can accommodate ya if theres some compensation involved...

I'm pretty sure california must have some law or other regarding the enaction of energy savings processes while in ones underwear.

Just for clarity, i'm currently wearing shorts.
 
Well...boxers at the time. But I can accommodate ya if theres some compensation involved...

I'm pretty sure california must have some law or other regarding the enaction of energy savings processes while in ones underwear.

Just for clarity, i'm currently wearing shorts.

Money whore
 
Arent we all? It really just comes down to the price, doesnt it?

By the way, I just shot orange juice out of my nose. Thanks.

At least I know where I can get a pretty cheap new computer to replace this one once the keys start sticking.
 

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