Hybrids versus full EV:
We agree on that one, although I'm more optimistic (10 years and bigger cars will switch to electric). Electric has another big advantage: simplicity. Fewer components mean higher reliability, less garage visits, faster engine design. Only thing holding it back therefore really is cost / wh capacity. That's a big reason why Tesla is building the gigafactory. ...
Simplicity is very compelling. It's one of the reasons that years ago, I really hoped I'd be driving an EV in the near future. But ICEs have made tremendous advances. Back then, you adjusted points, replaced spark plugs annually, 3000 mile / 3 month oil changes, etc. Now, you do 6 month or annual oil changes, some spark plugs are good for 100,000 miles, occasional air filter changes, and a hybrid also reduces brake replacements. Engine related maintenance on most cars today is really pretty minimal.
As far as I know, ICE don't have a lot of room left to improve efficiency unfortunately, and have a firm limit around 37% or so. It's inherently inferior to electric engines. I heard experts stating that a 10% increase in mpg is the most you'll get in the future.
Yes, the Carnot Limit I think is around 37% (googled and found this from
MIT :
Today’s car engines have efficiencies of 20 percent or less, compared to their Carnot Limit of 37 percent. But that puts them at ~ 54% of theoretical, so there is some room. Plus, there are other ideas for secondary systems to recover that waste heat. And I've read about adding a 5th power cycle to pull energy from the remaining heat, and free-piston engines for series hybrids. And we don't need to limit ourselves, small turbines might be a better source in the future - those are also very low maintenance.
Talking about cars that are designed today with fuel efficiency in mind. You see most of them in Europe, advertised in the 50 - 60 mpg range.
But getting a significant percent of the US fleet up near those levels would be a big improvement for the US. Fuel savings above 50 mpg is diminishing returns (better measured in gallons per 1,000 miles) [edit/add: as Texas Proud also pointed out - I cross posted this].
Ironically, what helps the ICE the most is a decent battery: The ICE runs at an efficient constant rpm so ideally does not drive the wheels directly: it recharges the battery. That's why hybrids shine so much right now: electric for variable loads, ICE for constant loads, gasoline for low weight.
Exactly. Like if we could build a 20 mile plug-in series hybrid as I mentioned earlier.
The final tipping point to go full electric is when the added cost of the ICE outweighs the cost for a large enough battery while factoring in fuel use. Not sure what that added cost is though.
Anyway, it depends on battery cost and weight evolving as it has done in the past. No garantuees there.
Yes, we will see. But it is years out, and then many years before enough are purchased to make up a significant percentage of the fleet (cars last a long time these days). So people who are flag waving for EVs won't see any significant benefits for even longer. As I've pointed out way back in this thread, the environmental benefits of EVs over a current hybrid are marginal at best, and far worse by many other measures (SOx and NOx).
And all the hoopla over lower oil imports - by the time EVs make up 10% of total annual miles (long distance cars and trucks aren't going EV as quickly, if ever), increased efficiency of the other 90% of the miles driven will swamp that out.
IMHO, The greatest risk to a Tesla owner is not the batteries, charging time or even cheap, economical hybrids. It is the small but real possibility that the company itself will fail and the owners will end up with a difficult to maintain orphan.
Much of Tesla's profit is reputed to be on the sale of ZEV credits to other auto manufacturers. While that may help finance R&D costs of future cars, at some point the car itself has to turn a profit. Or does it now? I don't know. My guess is that at some point Tesla will acquire a partner with big bucks to finance a big increase in production.
After all, Mr Musk's real goal is to drive a future Tesla on Mars.
Right?
I have also read that much of their revenue comes from these credits from other manufacturers. I don't know enough about their financials to say what happens as those phase out. Clearly, Elon Musk is a brilliant and pragmatic guy with a track record - I'm guessing he has plan, and selling it off could be it. Hey, then he could get that Hyperloop started!
I do expect Tesla to have a 'trickle down' effect for all of us. He has taken some innovate approaches that the old more stagnant car companies just couldn't seem to pull off. But they will copy him.
-ERD50
