More on the Tesla electric car

[ERD50]

Elon tweets on Range Anxiety

http://dcinno.streetwise.co/2015/03/18/elon-musks-tesla-motors-upgrade-might-improve-engine/

Elon Musk claimed that a software update to be announced on Thursday will fix "range anxiety" for Tesla Model S owners, but how exactly a software update will make Tesla drivers feel comfortable about traveling longer distances isn't clear. The answer may be in a software upgrade for the electric motor's inverter ...

The inverter is the part of the motor that converts direct current into alternating current, providing the power that moves the car. If Tesla has a way to modify the frequency of the inverter, it could make the electric motor more efficient by converting the electric charge more quickly.

.... A new, more accurate measurement of the charge left in the battery and how far that will get the driver before they need a charge might be helpful, but it wouldn't have quite the impact of literally downloading a better engine. And while battery swapping systems are starting to be implemented at Tesla charging stations, Musk confirmed on Twitter that that's not what he meant by ending range anxiety. Everyone will just have to find out on Thursday how Tesla will be calming its customers.

I'm pretty sure the inverter/motor combo is already highly efficient (85-90% ?), so I doubt any software upgrade could do more than squeak out a few %.

I have thought though, about the fact that EVs and hybrids use a limited range of the battery charge to extend the useful life (talking years here, not a single charge/discharge cycle). People familiar with laptop batteries dying after a few years thought that EVs and hybrids would be the same, but laptops use a deeper charge/discharge cycle to get more time from each charge, and replacing a laptop battery isn't a big deal, and few keep their laptops 8 years or more, like a car.

Maybe Tesla has enough data at this point to determine that they can allow a deeper discharge? Or maybe allow for an occasional deeper discharge (like 4x/year or something). So if you were on a longer trip, just decide to use one of the allowed deep cycles? Maybe it would be recorded and factor into the warranty? Like sure, run it deep once a month, but warranty will be reduced by X amount for each cycle over the 4/year limit (or whatever).

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Maybe his software upgrade will play relaxing music?

 

[ERD50]

Maybe his software upgrade will play relaxing music?

Here ya go:

I'm Just Taking My Time - Percy Faith

Just relax, you are getting sleepy, pull over and take a nap for 8 hours while your car recharges.....



-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

In Elon's Tweets he has stated that this will

• affect the entire Model S fleet
• be available as an OTA update
• will eliminate range anxiety

No range, will completely eliminate range anxiety (oddly enough more people that don't own EVs complain of range anxiety than those that do).
Improved efficiencies, range, etc simply won't have the desired effect.

My best guess is that this is a planned navigation update.

Anxiety is caused by the unknown.
To eliminate anxiety, you need to eliminate the question of, can I make that or not.
Even if the answer is "no, you can't make it", anxiety is not present. Disappointment perhaps, but no anxiety.

So if the navigation took into account ambient temperature, starting batter pack temperature, elevation changes, speed limits (with available input to state you are going faster or slower), available charging along route, etc, that would eliminate the anxiety.

Recently navigation became standard for all new cars. So if an OTA update makes it available on all cars, and eliminates the unknowns (very tall order) that would fit the bill.

 

[ls99]

I do recall Jeremy Clarkson testing Tesla and with proper flogging got a whopping 55 miles out of one, while the other test car's brake fuse blew while charging. Clarkson was promptly sued by Musk for a fake test, IIRC Musk did not prove his claims.

Maybe Musk enlisted Buddhist Monks chants of OOOOM.

Should sooth the range anxiety.

 

[ERD50]

In Elon's Tweets he has stated that this will

• affect the entire Model S fleet
• be available as an OTA update
• will eliminate range anxiety

No range, will completely eliminate range anxiety ....
Improved efficiencies, range, etc simply won't have the desired effect.

My best guess is that this is a planned navigation update.

Anxiety is caused by the unknown. ....

That could be it, better prediction and more information on charging options, etc. As you point out, he did tweet "Range Anxiety", not simply "range" ( leading to the soothing music quips). Though my guess might still fit that, since maybe they couldn't talk about an occasional range increase as such, might be a question of EPA regs. So offering occasional extended range as soothing anxiety range might fit. It should be clearer tomorrow.

(oddly enough more people that don't own EVs complain of range anxiety than those that do)

Maybe not so odd. The people who actually bought one should have been well aware of the range, and were OK using it within those limitations. If you routinely needed to make trips at/near the range limit, and no second vehicle, and no time/opportunity to charge in between - you probably just didn't buy one, and therefore would not be an owner who complains about range anxiety! It's somewhat self-selecting. Also, more people don't own EVs than do!

At any rate, the release should be interesting.


-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Elon today:

The first of the two application is range assurance application. This , in real time, communicates with Superchargers and destination chargers and it warns you before you drive out of range.

.... Also factors in wind speeds, high mountain ranges. Don't need to do any thinking ahead of time.

...

"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."

Well that's a huge hunk of hyperbole - he means you can't knowingly run out of range, which is true of gas cars or any EV - watch your gauge. Sure, this is more advanced, and helps you plan, but the range is still the range.

The second feature is trip planner. It will now look up supercharger in real time to get you to the most convenient route to your destination.

All nice stuff, but I think that's a real stretch from his tweet - 'About to end range anxiety ... via OTA software update. Affects entire Model S fleet.' No, it allows for better planning. How about an unexpected side trip while you are on a planned trip that doesn't have much margin? Ever get a call and have to make a side trip (Hey, Joe, can you stop by the supplier's office and pick up the prototype on the way to the meeting - they just finished it?)? Ever realize you forgot something, need to drive back to get it, and now you are behind schedule?

It doesn't end range anxiety. Too much hype for me.

-ERD50

 

[explanade]

The moment of truth for Tesla will be in about a couple of years if Chevy delivers on the Bolt as they claimed.

Then Tesla will need to have the Model 3 out shortly thereafter.

 

[ERD50]

The market was not impressed. TSLA spiked down at the announcement. A little recovery since.

edit... or maybe not a recovery...



-ERD50

 

[Hermit]

DD missed an exit and ran out of gas in her Prius last summer. The car continued until the battery pack was so dead that when AAA brought her some gas the car wouldn't start and the dash lights wouldn't come on. She had to have it towed to the Toyota dealer where they recharged the battery and it has been fine since. Hybrids and EVs are just different than gas only powered cars.

 

[ERD50]

I just saw another reference to this:

"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."

Isn't that pretty much the definition of tautology? You can't run out of range unless you try to drive the car beyond its range?

I guess I should stop worrying about running out of money, I'll just make sure I never spend enough to run out of money. Problem solved!

Sorry, but I expect more from Musk (he is an impressive guy).

-ERD50

 

[Midpack]

The moment of truth for Tesla will be in about a couple of years if Chevy delivers on the Bolt as they claimed.

Then Tesla will need to have the Model 3 out shortly thereafter.

I would guess potential Chevy Bolt buyers have little if anything in common with Tesla Model S buyers. In fact that was the genius that led to Tesla's relative success so far, catering to upscale buyers at the outset - differentiating Tesla from the 'bargain' EV brands. So the Bolt may not be any more of a threat to the upmarket Teslas than a Malibu is to a Lexus LS.

 

[travelover]

DD missed an exit and ran out of gas in her Prius last summer. The car continued until the battery pack was so dead that when AAA brought her some gas the car wouldn't start and the dash lights wouldn't come on. She had to have it towed to the Toyota dealer where they recharged the battery and it has been fine since. Hybrids and EVs are just different than gas only powered cars.

On my Escape, there is an emergency mini inverter that will charge the 330 volt battery off the 12 volt battery. So, in a similar case, you could jump the 12 volt battery from a tow truck and charge the 330 volt battery enough to start the vehicle. Once it is running, it can charge up both batteries quickly.

I believe that later models had this feature cost-reduced out.

 

[Brat]

Hum.. DD recently shared the fact that she is buying a Tesla. Their other vehicle is an SUV which will haul her family and stuff on trips. My take is that she will use the Tesla in the SF Metro area, primarily going back & forth to work.

Her husband says he wants to drive it at least once a week.

 

[Midpack]

Hum.. DD recently shared the fact that she is buying a Tesla. Their other vehicle is an SUV which will haul her family and stuff on trips. My take is that she will use the Tesla in the SF Metro area, primarily going back & forth to work.

Her husband says he wants to drive it at least once a week.

EV's make sense as second cars for most people. But I assume there are very few households that don't have at least one ICE or hybrid vs EV(s) only.

 

[ERD50]

EV's make sense as second cars for most people. But I assume there are very few households that don't have at least one ICE or hybrid vs EV(s) only.

Agreed, maybe some with good public transportation would be in the few that you mention.

Even at that, the range can be an issue for a second car. I recall my daughter had a problem with her car just as she was heading back to school, I decided to loan mine (our second car) to her, so I could get her car in the shop at my leisure, and at a trusted mechanic.

Now if my second car was an EV, school was beyond EV range, and she had no place to charge it (street parking). Would not have worked.

Now sure, we could have rented a car, and this is clearly a somewhat rare occurrence. But it is a negative - I don't want to pay a premium for a car that just won't do what I've become accustomed to with a gas powered car. I think the more common case is when you plan a trip just within the range, then need to make a side trip that could easily exceed the range of an EV.

The negatives would be easier to live with if there was any real clear advantage to EVs. We've discussed that the environmental situation for an EV is about nil, or likely negative compared to a hybrid. Simple mechanics is nice, but offset that by the cost of replacing the battery pack at maybe 10 years, and the incredible reliability of modern cars, I just don't see the point. Well, unless someone wants expensive sports car acceleration at a relative bargain. The Tesla does that.

-ERD50

 

[yakers]

Electric Cars In Georgia

Looks like Georgia has remarkable subsidies for electric cars:

Tax incentives: Sparks fly | The Economist

Wow, I can't imagine a 1.3 cent per Kwh charging rate.

 

[Chuckanut]

Simple mechanics is nice, but offset that by the cost of replacing the battery pack at maybe 10 years, and the incredible reliability of modern cars, I just don't see the point. Well, unless someone wants expensive sports car acceleration at a relative bargain. The Tesla does that.

-ERD50

I don't think Tesla owners buy them because they have to pinch pennies on transportation.


The Tesla is, IMHO, supposed to be bridge car to more common and affordable electric vehicles. Whether or not this works remains to be seen.

I do remember reading an article that claimed that converting more expensive vehicles to electrify (sports cars, big SUVs, trucks, etc.) made more sense than converting cheaper cars, already economical with ICE power. Simply put, the savings on fuel for the bigger cars would be far greater than the savings when comparing a Leaf to a Corolla or a Cruz. The article had milage costs comparisons, though I am not sure what they used to represent a big truck, say an F250 type. Perhaps, they used test vehicles of some type? Or custom conversions?

FWIW, when electric vehicles have to pay their fare share of the highway taxes now included in the price of a gallon of gas, they will lose some cost advantage.

Not excepting the above, I enjoy seeing innovation and well thought out risk-taking in the area of cars and public transportation. I would like to see a successful electric car if for no other reason than to give consumers more choices in transportation. Time will tell.

 

[ERD50]

Looks like Georgia has remarkable subsidies for electric cars:

Tax incentives: Sparks fly | The Economist

Wow, I can't imagine a 1.3 cent per Kwh charging rate.

Link didn't work for me, but I searched the terms and got there (I think their subscription request interferes with a direct link).

Anyway, the 1.3 kWh rate is night time. Night time electricity is very low cost to produce, it doesn't require any added infrastructure, and the coal and nukes are pretty much just idling. Near zero incremental cost.

I wonder what people with TOD meters pay at night there?

I'll skip my usual subsidy rant

-ERD50

 

[NW-Bound]

... I do remember reading an article that claimed that converting more expensive vehicles to electrify (sports cars, big SUVs, trucks, etc.) made more sense than converting cheaper cars, already economical with ICE power. Simply put, the savings on fuel for the bigger cars would be far greater than the savings when comparing a Leaf to a Corolla or a Cruz...

A hybrid engine may significantly boost the gas mileage of a motorhome.

However, the gargantuan battery required may make such MH affordable to only the super rich RV'ers, who do not care about gas mileage anyway.

And improving mpg still is not an economic solution if the big vehicle is not driven enough over its life to recoup the cost.

Here hoping for a breakthrough in battery technology, which will open the floodgate to lots of exciting applications, on the road as well as at home.

 

[Zathras]

...
Sorry, but I expect more from Musk (he is an impressive guy).

-ERD50

Why, I described earlier pretty much exactly what this would be based on the tweets.

Some people made predictions which would do very little to eliminate range anxiety.

This eliminates the unknown, thus the anxiety, almost perfectly.

As for your money analogy, I feel a lot more secure in the car's range estimates than in your financial future

 

[ERD50]

Why, I described earlier pretty much exactly what this would be based on the tweets.

Some people made predictions which would do very little to eliminate range anxiety.

Yes, but I was hoping there would be some kind of actual range extension, even if only under limited 'emergency' cases. That would reduce the range anxiety, no? Like a reserve tank on a car/motorcycle - oops ran out, flip a switch, OK, I can go 20 more miles...

I'm pretty sure I'm right about the EV batteries being treated 'gently' - not charging too high and not discharging too low, in order to get a years more life from them, compared to say a laptop battery. So I thought it might be possible to allow an occasional deep discharge, based on the data they have collected.

This eliminates the unknown, thus the anxiety, almost perfectly.

As for your money analogy, I feel a lot more secure in the car's range estimates than in your financial future

But the quote from Elon that I was responding to:

"It's basically impossible to run out of range, unless you do so intentionally."

is just circular, and that's what my reference was to. He is saying that you won't run out of range, as long as you don't plan to drive too far. Circular. You can have any color, as long as it's black (Henry Ford - the more things change, the more they stay the same!)

Range anxiety isn't simply and totally a function of predicting when you will run out, so that you can avoid it (though that helps, depending how bad the predictions were in the first place). But compared to an ICE and gas stations all around, an unplanned side trip can certainly cause anxiety in an EV.

Elon did say (bold mine):

About to end range anxiety

OK, he improved the prediction and options for recharging. That all well and good, but it isn't putting an end to it. It was hyperbole, plain and simple.

...

Here hoping for a breakthrough in battery technology, which will open the floodgate to lots of exciting applications, on the road as well as at home.

You're not holding your breath, are you?

Batteries have been on a steady improvement path, lots of motivation to improve them, and the problems seem to be well understood. Progress just takes time. I think the chances of a 'breakthrough' are very, very slim (but we can still hope!).

I recall someone on this forum with a good understanding of chemical properties made some estimates of just how good a battery could get in theory. Based on the energy band gaps, densities, sizes, of the chemicals themselves, etc. It was impressive, but not out-of-this world, and then the realities of actually needing to package that theory come into play, and you were not talking super huge improvements.

Maybe those micro fuel cells that run on methanol will make a resurgence? Or something we can't even dream of?

-ERD50

 

[Zathras]

No, extending range would do almost nothing to range anxiety?
Does the 60kWh come with Range anxiety and the 85kWh not?

If you have a side trip, with this new software (if it is as good as claimed) there is no anxiety.
The car will tell you, yes you can make it, yes you can make it if you charge at this location or slow down, or no you can't.

Anxiety is gone, as the unknown is gone. That is what was stated and that is what people got.

At one time, if you didn't know how the car behaved, the estimated range didn't take into account elevation changes, speed changes, etc and gave no warning about not being able to make it.
This caused range anxiety, as you couldn't be sure. With this software, you can.

 

[sailor]

I wonder what people with TOD meters pay at night there?

For example my EMC in GA has following rates:

1. All kWh of Off-Peak Energy @ $0.0445 per kWh
2. All kWh of On-Peak Energy @ $0.280 per kWh

http://file.sawnee.com/web-docs/rates/TU-22.pdf

 

[ERD50]

I'll still say they improved the situation, they didn't "end range anxiety". That's my point, the hype.

If you have a side trip, with this new software (if it is as good as claimed) there is no anxiety.
The car will tell you, yes you can make it, yes you can make it if you charge at this location or slow down, or no you can't.

Anxiety is gone, as the unknown is gone.

And if you can't - that creates anxiety. Oh no, I'm gonna be waaayyyy late for an important appointment, because I had to make this side trip! Isn't that anxiety?

For casual use, I don't care when I get there, or I can stop for a charge, or just go home, whatever, fine. But for people relying on the car for everyday getting around, the inability to refill in 10 minutes at a gas station is a problem. It becomes less of a problem as the range increases (and as more chargers become available, but still slower than pumping dino-fuel).

No, extending range would do almost nothing to range anxiety?
Does the 60kWh come with Range anxiety and the 85kWh not?

No, I don't agree. It's not binary. All else being equal, the longer range car will have fewer cases of causing anxiety over something like an unplanned side trip.

Teslas are cool, but I don't think that means EVs are anywhere near ready for acceptance across any significant % of the population. And as I've hashed out previously, I really don't see any reason for people to move towards EVs (unless they just want to, for the acceleration/$). A modern non-plug-in hybrid is equal or better (much better in some ways) from an environmental standpoint, and people don't have to adjust their driving. Fill 'er up and go. And go, and go and go, until you need another 10 minute fill up, available just about everywhere, without going out of your way.

In my view, a 200 mile range, and a ten minute recharge at every gas station in the world would count as "ending" range anxiety for EVs. Until then, it's still there, regardless of Elon's tweets.

-ERD50