2022 Investment Performance Thread

[NW-Bound]

That loss is the effect of bonds and stocks going down at the same time.

Yes.

But the past history of Wellesley includes the terrible years of late 1970s and early 1980s. We had mortgage rates higher than 17% then.

 

[target2019]

The tide is going out for all index funds, active or passive, Wellington-managed or not...

 

[Surewhitey]

Yes, so much for zigging and zagging. I think I will stick to I-bonds, T-bills and CDs with any new, non-stock money.

Yeah, we've put some dry powder in I-bonds and 12 month notes, laddering them. I'll start back up with index funds as we get lower over the next few months or certain % down. Maybe sooner than later.

 

[eytonxav]

Wow. I hope that it will recover some of the loss somewhat before the year end.

I don't have a lot of money with Wellesley, but if this conservative MF does badly, it means the market and economy are in bad shape.

I really cannot imagine a recovery by years end unless Putin withdraws, and the policies coming from the gummit change to be less regulatory and no more money printing.

 

[NW-Bound]

I really cannot imagine a recovery by years end unless Putin withdraws, and the policies coming from the gummit change to be less regulatory and no more money printing.

The economy may not recover, but the market always leads.

It's the same as the market is already down 20% from the top, but the economy just started to slow.

 

[Rianne]

As of today:
-17% overall
-11% retirement tIRA
-21% taxed (index funds)

 

[MichaelB]

Instead of thinking about asset markets recovering, I view this more like bond and stock prices are returning to their longer term valuations and price levels.

That means the losses we’ve seen YTD are permanent. That’s a good thing, thought, because it means future returns are also more likely to be positive.

 

[HenryD]

Investment balances down 16% YTD, networth down 9% YTD. If we end June where we are at currently it will be the worst month so far in dollars, although not the worst percentage. Still in the accumulation phase though. Investment balances and networth are both still up 61% from their March 2020 lows.

 

[NW-Bound]

Instead of thinking about asset markets recovering, I view this more like bond and stock prices are returning to their longer term valuations and price levels.

That means the losses we’ve seen YTD are permanent. That’s a good thing, thought, because it means future returns are also more likely to be positive.

Indeed, if the market stops sliding down from here and just gives me 5-10%/year, I will be happy. Expecting it to reclaim the old high soon is just unrealistic.

Still, I wonder how the market did so well back in 1980.

Oh, I see now that the P/E back then was 8! And we are still at 18.6. The P/E back in 1980 was at the bottom, and could only go up.

Aye, aye, aye... Our 4% SWR guru Bengen has been saying we are in uncharted territory, and that this time is really different. I am seeing how he thinks that.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

Instead of thinking about asset markets recovering, I view this more like bond and stock prices are returning to their longer term valuations and price levels.

That means the losses we’ve seen YTD are permanent. That’s a good thing, thought, because it means future returns are also more likely to be positive.

I agree with your assessment. But that might mean we are wrong, because if everyone is thinking that it will likely be wrong.

"In the long run", standard of living and wealth are functions of productivity. One of my "crazy thinks" is that we, as humans, think linearly. The result of that is we tend to overestimate improvements in the short run and underestimate them in the long run (because of exponential growth). While there may be set backs (and I'm thinking that this one will be considerably longer than expected), eventually the things that are only theoretical become everyday.

The above is my positive contribution of the day. Back to my thinking we have a lot more pain to come (and that we are already in recession ).

 

[corn18]

The tide is going out for all index funds, active or passive, Wellington-managed or not...

Cool thing about tides is they go out and they come in.

 

[aja8888]

Instead of thinking about asset markets recovering, I view this more like bond and stock prices are returning to their longer term valuations and price levels.

That means the losses we’ve seen YTD are permanent. That’s a good thing, thought, because it means future returns are also more likely to be positive.

Yes, that's a more pleasant way to say it.

 

[NW-Bound]

Except that the market may go a lot lower before it returns to its historical return of 9-10%/year.

 

[corn18]

Except that the market may go a lot lower before it returns to its historical return of 9-10%/year.

We bet on the long term trends.

 

[NW-Bound]

We bet on the long term trends.

Sure. It all depends on one's definition of "long term".

In 10 years, very likely. In 2 or 3 years, it's not as likely.

 

[corn18]

Sure. It all depends on one's definition of "long term".

In 10 years, very likely. In 2-3 years and even 5 years, it's not as likely.

The 15 year period from 1906-1921 averaged -1.5% real return on a 60/40 portfolio. Bad real returns can last a long while. Especially with high inflation.

 

[NW-Bound]

The 15 year period from 1906-1921 averaged -1.5% real return on a 60/40 portfolio. Bad real returns can last a long while. Especially with high inflation.

Wow, even nicer!

Tomorrow, I will sell everything.


Just kidding, in case someone here who's new, and does not know that I like to joke around.

But as I said, I will set tighter strike prices on my OTM covered call options. I will try to be less optimistic than I usually am. About my owned picked stocks that is. I dunno about your stocks.

 

[aja8888]

Wow, even nicer!

Tomorrow, I will sell everything.

Spread it out so you don't spook the market!

 

[NW-Bound]

Spread it out so you don't spook the market!

Thanks for not thinking that the moment I sell all, the market will jump up like what happens with unlucky people.

 

[VFK57]

Yes, so much for zigging and zagging. I think I will stick to I-bonds, T-bills and CDs with any new, non-stock money.

With current inflation, you will have losses with 2.8 - 4% income vs 8.6% inflation.

 

[eytonxav]

The economy may not recover, but the market always leads.

It's the same as the market is already down 20% from the top, but the economy just started to slow.

You said you were hoping Wellesley would recover by years end, so that is what I was referring to.

 

[NW-Bound]

With current inflation, you will have losses with 2.8 - 4% income vs 8.6% inflation.

True. But she's waiting until more people post this emoticon before buying back in. She's losing less than market right now.

Market timing is not the same as hoarding cash forever.

I myself have lots of cash instead of bonds. Still love my stocks too much.

 

[teejayevans]

Except that the market may go a lot lower before it returns to its historical return of 9-10%/year.

It’s been a very organized decline, no panic yet…once panic sets in then it will be near the bottom.

 

[copyright1997reloaded]

A couple minutes before market close on the quarter....I don't think any of us will be pleased posting our YTD numbers. Ugh.

 

[NW-Bound]

Whoever loses less wins.