DOW 25k by 12/31/2017

[Free bird]

Santa rally underway.

 

[LOL!]

I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Free bird]

Only another 5%

 

[flintnational]

That's it. I am out. I am rebalancing (and then some) tomorrow . Call me a DMT.

 

[Free bird]

Lol

 

[Free bird]

I will say that people like John Bogle have grossley underestimated stock market returns for many years now. People are just begining to realize mid single digit return forecasts have people under invested in stocks. Vanguard is rolling out managed ETFs. Who'd a thunk it.

 

[Bryan Barnfellow]

It's almost believable these days. That said, remember this?!

http://www.amazon.com/Dow-2008-Different-This-Time/dp/1893958701/ref=pd_lpo_sbs_14_t_2?_encoding=UTF8&psc=1&refRID=F32VJBS0W1TGK85Q2A7Y

 

[Free bird]

He was only off by 10 years.

 

[Free bird]

May see 30k next year.

 

[pb4uski]

That's it. I am out. I am rebalancing (and then some) tomorrow . Call me a DMT.

I have been rebalancing frequently this year waiting for the bottom to fall out but nothing so far... joke's on me.

 

[W2R]

Santa rally underway.

A dream come true! We suffered through 2008-2009 together, and now is our time to enjoy the "up side".

 

[NW-Bound]

I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders. The media talked about how the Internet traffic was doubling every few months. Dot-com stocks were priced not on what profits they made, but on how many visits their Web sites got daily. They had not made any money yet, but soon, really soon ... Technology was wonderful... Fast computers, people working at home, buying grocery online and having it delivered by Webvan, HomeGrocer, etc...

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

In the months ahead, I will watch very closely for more bubblicious signs. If not raising more cash, then I will step up the covered call selling to hedge.

 

[Luck_Club]

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

+1

Right now its going up up up. I think there is a ton of money banking on overseas profit repatriation, lower corporate taxes, and 3+% growth. When those don't materialize or fall short of expectations watch out below.

 

[NW-Bound]

I will say that people like John Bogle have grossley underestimated stock market returns for many years now. People are just begining to realize mid single digit return forecasts have people under invested in stocks. Vanguard is rolling out managed ETFs. Who'd a thunk it.

People under invested? Maybe it was so in 2016 or earlier, but I am not sure it is true now.

One can search the Web using the phrase "cash on the sidelines", and just a glance over the headlines will show what is being reported.

This is a typical one that I found, back in July 2017:

According to the latest BofA flow show report, ... private client cash - i.e., high net worth individuals, or those who still allocate capital to single-stocks and ETFs on a discretionary basis (unlike the broader US public which has long ago given up on the stock market), is now at a record low, taking out the cash levels observed in the period just prior to the last market peak in 2007...​

Perhaps all the "smart money" was already in, and the little guys who are late to the game are just now buying, and buying indiscriminately. The market can still go up a while, but I am getting more and more wary.

Currently at 72.3% stock AA as I am writing this...

 

[Which Roger]

May see 30k next year.

What will be the next milestone: Over 30k, or back under 20k? That might make an interesting poll for this forum.

 

[jimbee]

I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders. The media talked about how the Internet traffic was doubling every few months. Dot-com stocks were priced not on what profits they made, but on how many visits their Web sites got daily. They had not made any money yet, but soon, really soon ... Technology was wonderful... Fast computers, people working at home, buying grocery online and having it delivered by Webvan, HomeGrocer, etc...

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

In the months ahead, I will watch very closely for more bubblicious signs. If not raising more cash, then I will step up the covered call selling to hedge.

That's because most people got the start year of the new millennium wrong.

 

[Free bird]

Vanguard says 70% chance of a correction. We can only hope. Not sure what Vanguards record is for calling corrections. Didn't even know they did that.

 

[candrew]

Planning on a 35 year retirement horizon so we're just staying the course with AA.

 

[MRG]

I remember the elation in the last months in 1999. People were celebrating the new millennium. Some were discovering the Web and its wonders.

Currently, it is not to the same level, but why do I have some nagging déjà vu feelings?

Well it's a little toppy() right now.

I remember 2000, 2008..

What's smart money do?

 

[hesperus]

Is this a 'wheee!!' thread?

 

[Gumby]

Is this a 'wheee!!' thread?

NO, absolutely not! No, no, no, no no.

 

[SecondCor521]

NO, absolutely not! No, no, no, no no.

Only matters if She says it. (Thanks for keeping your "W****!" holstered, W2R! )

PS - Put in a small rebalance for tomorrow just in case.

 

[Svensk Anga]

Watch for another leg up when all the bitcoin billionaires cash out and look for alternative investments.

 

[W2R]

No, not a WHEEE!!! thread! Just a happy thread. As you all must have figured out by now, my WHEEE!!! seems to be broken or something. I already did it a few times this year, and nothing happened.

I was offline for a few minutes just now, figuring out my spending projections for 2017. Looks like as of today I am coming in $1054 under what I spent last year. Now that would be a non-contagious, harmless little wheee, I would think!

Market up? Spending down? I like this.

 

[NW-Bound]

Looking back at recent historical market data, I saw things that's hard to explain even though I lived through it.

In 1998, the year building up to the dot-com bubble that burst in early 2000, I saw that the S&P was at 1282, and at a P/E of around 33.

In early 2000, when the NASDAQ hit its all-time high and was about to collapse, the S&P reached 1442, but its earnings rose such that the P/E declined to 27.

Even as the dot-coms and tech stocks imploded, earnings of the S&P continued to climb until the end of 2000, when they started to decline as the country entered into a recession in 2001. Then, 9/11 event occurred, and it was mayhem.

By mid 2004, the S&P earnings already recovered to the level it reached in mid 2000, even with inflation adjustment. What was the price? It was around 1100, compared to 1400 in 2000. And that was before inflation.

Why? Investors were not as gunho with stocks in 2004 as they were in 1998 or in 2000. The P/E of the S&P was down to 16 in 2004, compared to the mid 20 in 2000. Same earnings, but much lower stock prices. They loved stock, then they did not love it anymore.

Yes, that's P/E reversion, my fellow investors. It happened so many times before, and it will happen again. That's what Bogle has been warning us. And that's why long-term return of stocks is going to be in the single-digit when we talk time periods of a decade or more.

Sell, sell, sell? Not now, but soon.