Firecalc not the whole picture?

[rescueme]

Did you find the Vanguard actual person help (if I understand the site correctly) to be really useful (and free?)

Free? Yes. Helpful? No.

I guess I'm just a person who has been investing so long (over three decades) that I'm not about to turn my portfolio over, or listen to suggestions that don't match my observations over the long term, based upon my goals, my portfolio, my actual results, and my desires.

Old, grumpy, and a PIA. What can I say?

I used their "service" for a few years in the past, some years ago. Now? I'll just make my observations and decisions on my own (TYVM).

 

[Rustward]

It will forecast your possible results a/o Jan 1 of the following year forward, and it will also "discount" your current portfolio value to just under 10% in order to forecast that "aw sh**" situation you mentioned.

I might be seeing the discount to which you refer, but at least in my specific case, the Jan 1 Beginning Assets value is about 4.6% less than the assets I entered.

 

[REattempt]

Log on and put 'financial engines' in the search box. It will bring up a link.

Found it. Thanks. Fails half way through when I try to associate accounts with goals..

 

[REattempt]

but it should show up on your VG main page on the lower right as an option for you to use.

Ha! It is there, never noticed it before....still fails half way through using this link.

 

[pb4uski]

Free? Yes. Helpful? No.

I guess I'm just a person who has been investing so long (over three decades) that I'm not about to turn my portfolio over, or listen to suggestions that don't match my observations over the long term, based upon my goals, my portfolio, my actual results, and my desires.

Old, grumpy, and a PIA. What can I say?

I used their "service" for a few years in the past, some years ago. Now? I'll just make my observations and decisions on my own (TYVM).

The value exceeded the price I paid (it was free).

Seriously though, it was ok but I'm probably more advanced than the average user (as is rescueme) so our expectations are a bit higher. For many people who haven't spent a lot of time doing retirement planning, I think it could be valuable. I did find it a bit frustrating that they couldn;t handle non-continuous cash outflows (like DS's college costs and DD's wedding), but I just calculated a pv of each of those and carved the same amount out of my nestegg for the retirement projections (sidefunded them).

If it wasn't free it woudl be a close call whether I would pay the $250 they charge to Voyager customers, but I would not pay the $1,000 that they charge to customers lower than Voyager.

 

[pb4uski]

Ha! It is there, never noticed it before....still fails half way through using this link.

You may need to give VG a call. Mine works fine.

 

[rescueme]

I might be seeing the discount to which you refer, but at least in my specific case, the Jan 1 Beginning Assets value is about 4.6% less than the assets I entered.

It may have something to do with your current assets/AA and your defined target within your FIDO account.

For us, our overall target is "balanced", along with a 50% equity target. I believe if you go through the "Portfolio Review" tool, you can set it up to match your goals and any other tool will use this information as a key artifact for calculations.

BTW, I checked this morning's RIP run and my Jan 1 2013 starting variance came out to just over 7%, based upon my data. I know that in the past, it has been closer to 10%, but this could also be due (along with the AA/target data) to the time of year - more varience earlier?

 

[haha]

Okay, I run Firecalc several times a week, changing various parameters. Also i-ORP. SInce Firecalc should not be a deciding factor, what else should I be doing?

Possibly run Firecalc daily?

 

[palomalou]

haha, sometimes I DO run it daily! So, haha indeed!
The Fidelity I can't figure out how to add part-time work after "retirement" nor convince it that I don't need 85% of current income after retirement. Of present income, we save about half for retirement, so taking that out we only need a bit over 50%. Also have to add most but not all of what we anticipate from the house sale, since that is not YET appreciating in the market.

 

[rescueme]

(snip)..I can't figure out how to add part-time work after "retirement" nor convince it that I don't need 85% of current income after retirement.

On the "your situation" tab, go down to the bottom to the "other income" entry.

You can specify on the pulldown where this income is coming from (e.g. Part Time Earnings) and you can specify a start/end age. Remember, this income will be considered taxable (FIT/local/state tax) so specify the gross amount.

If you are using the "full version" of RIP and not using the detail budget, you should. By filling out the screen (once & done - just update if/when your expected expenses change) it will calculate the income needed (along with taxes due). Often, folks will just plug in a number to short-cut the process, but if you go through the budget screen, you can also specify (by date) reductions/increases in expense items as you age.

 

[Aiming_4_55]

Possibly run Firecalc daily?

I just ran Firecalc this morning

After I joined the forum, I ran a bunch of what if scenarios, so I'll admit I ran them daily when I had time and thought of other situations. Now I run them every few months. This is while playing with other spreadsheets and online tools.

 

[mexico]

Have you also used a Monte Carlo simulator? I'm not familiar with i-ORP and the others you mentioned. My favorite Monte Carlo is Flexible Retirement Planner, and I don't think it has any of the flaws you mentioned--it's possible to input part-time income, a lump sum such as sale of a house, and it doesn't force you to use a fraction of your current income for your retirement income needs.

I agree that flexible retirement planner is a good one.

 

[palomalou]

Mexico, that is a great one- the Flexible. One time I thought I had a box that would allow me to change the default for incestment--oops, investment--return from 8% to 4%, but it didn't change. Once I crack that one, will be terrific. Thanks.

 

[Aiming_4_55]

Flexible Retirement Planner and ORP are both very good. Too many tools, too little time!