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Four Bad Bear Markets
Old 03-14-2009, 08:16 AM   #1
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Four Bad Bear Markets

I thought this (and the other info on the site) was fascinating, never heard of the site until this morning. I assume some will be quick to disagree, but to me this is more good evidence that despite how bad this downturn is, it's unlikely to match the Depression (as some suggest). Somewhat reassuring, but time will tell...
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Old 03-14-2009, 08:25 AM   #2
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Other than the initial drop, looks like the current bear is on a similar pattern to the big one.
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Old 03-14-2009, 08:48 AM   #3
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I don't think this will match the depression, but I don't see how the data at Doug Shorts site (that I've been following for a long time) makes any prediction.

I guesstimate that ultimate bottom on the S&P is around 600, which is what, 70% down maybe.
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Old 03-14-2009, 08:53 AM   #4
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Nice chart, U saved it before as it is an interesting graphic representation. While it does not predict anything it certainly does show how long things can go and not get any better. I do not expect things will go down all that much but I am concerned that a recovery my be a long way off. A long, slow recovery could be worse than a short, sharp drop and quicker recovery.
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Old 03-17-2009, 03:36 PM   #5
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This first part of the '29 crash (gray line):

is a nice illustration for those who say they are going to wait until the market recovers before they put their money back in. It sure looks like time to get back in, yet the worst is yet to come.
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Old 03-17-2009, 03:57 PM   #6
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What encouraging to me is that we're at worst in the second half of this mess ... and at best in the fourth quarter.

If my tenants can hold there jobs for another year or so, things will improve.
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