Harry S. Dent

[DoingHomework]

Anyone follow this guy? What's the consensus? Is he right on or is he full of BS? I've read a bit of his stuff over the last couple of years...but never a full book. I'm thinking of buying one of his books to read on the beach later this month.

He seems to forecast long term megatrends and then interpret them as they are likely to affect economies. I find the approach intriguing because the major trend approach skips the daily and weekly noise of the news and the effect of events that are ultimately inconsequential. But he makes a lot of assertions that without much backup and there is so much information it's hard to digest it all. He also has a newsletter to sell...

In any case, any thoughts anyone would be willing to share would be appreciated.

 

[clifp]

I read his stuff back in the 70s and early 80s. I think it was he that inspired me to buy a silver bar which promptly went down in value, and than I managed to lose in a move LOL.

He is a broken clock right twice in a generation.

 

[novaman]

I've read a couple of his books including his latest one...which really got me scared last fall. I think his long term trends make a lot of sense but he's been lousy if you follow his short term recommendations.

 

[RonBoyd]

He seems to forecast long term megatrends and then interpret them as they are likely to affect economies

And that seems possible to you?

 

[DoingHomework]

And that seems possible to you?

It sounds a lot more plausible than a forecast for next week.

I'm not convinced, and I don't follow any other "experts." But I don't thinking noting that country X is breeding faster than their economy can grow and that will lower their per capita GDP is a stretch. But I do wonder whether that has any meaning to me for making money since it's not exactly a surprise.

 

[audreyh1]

Well he didn't fore see the early 2000s bear market as far as I remember. He thought the 2000s would "roar" until 2009-2010 when demographics would cause problems for markets.

So I guess he was right about 2010 or thereabouts. But it doesn't seem that demographics are the problem, does it! A smaller work population (which is what he saw - less people in their peak earning years) doesn't exactly correspond with the high unemployment problems we are having right now.

So, I think he is on the wrong track....

Audrey

 

[Masquernom]

I read a couple of his books. Seems to me he's done a lot of research on one variable of a multi-variable problem. Do you believe that only demographics account for most of the economy moves?

 

[traineeinvestor]

I read the Roaring 2000s - it was wrong - very wrong. Anyone who followed the advice in that book would have lost a lot of money. I haven't read anything else from him since

 

[donheff]

Well he didn't fore see the early 2000s bear market as far as I remember. He thought the 2000s would "roar" until 2009-2010 when demographics would cause problems for markets.

I remember reading that before I came to this forum. He throws a ton of statistics at you that sound sensible. I remember thinking that if he turns out to be right throughout the oughts, maybe I will go to cash in late 09. But he was so far off I forgot about him and have no interest in going back. Data miners can find all sorts of trends that invariably end at the point they are used to make predictions.

 

[DoingHomework]

Thanks to all. In doing a little more research I've found the same things stated here - he is right about half the time...much like a coin. I already ordered a book but I will enjoy it as a nice work of fiction!