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Old 04-09-2020, 07:18 AM   #61
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Actually learned way back in the Army. $h*t happens. Above all keep a level head, don't panic and ignore the herd mentality. Leaving investment mix as it was set around six years ago. Will have a look at numbers in a few months.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:34 AM   #62
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So the economy getting put on lockdown is not a swan? LOL, I thought I was wrong about this being a swan or not. You're in a whole 'nother league.

Let me know if you change your mind when/if we're getting near depression level, this has the potential to make 2009 feel like a mild recession. ...
Badly phrased, I guess. I was thinking in terms of the market, the subject of this thread.

On its own the pandemic is not a black swan to the public health community but, of course, it is to us civilians.

Maybe five+ years ago I was in a FEMA Incident Command System training class (ICS-300). The students ranged from wildland fire folks to urban and rural sheriffs to the state's public health department. Wait ... public health?!? They need Incident Commanders, Operations Section Chiefs, Logistics Section Chiefs, and all that ICS stuff ... ?!!!? Yup. They were preparing for the coming pandemic, which they were nearly certain would happen. (Of course, no one was listening to them so no one in the upper levels of government never allocated the resources that they recommended.)
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:45 AM   #63
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Maybe five+ years ago I was in a FEMA Incident Command System training class (ICS-300). The students ranged from wildland fire folks to urban and rural sheriffs to the state's public health department. Wait ... public health?!? They need Incident Commanders, Operations Section Chiefs, Logistics Section Chiefs, and all that ICS stuff ... ?!!!? Yup. They were preparing for the coming pandemic, which they were nearly certain would happen. (Of course, no one was listening to them so no one in the upper levels of government never allocated the resources that they recommended.)
Local officials do not to listen because they are just planning for the next election, this is the type of General you do not want have in a war time.
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Old 04-09-2020, 08:50 AM   #64
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A reliable internet connection is vital to work from home...I have a cellular WiFi hotspot as backup to cable internet

And if AT&T would just run their fiber from the main road outside my neighborhood down into my neighborhood I'd add that as well.
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Old 04-09-2020, 09:48 AM   #65
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Local officials do not to listen because they are just planning for the next election, this is the type of General you do not want have in a war time.

Which is what bureaucracies are for. So when the unlucky elected official actually has to decide what to do, there are people who are already there who know what to do to provide options then know how to do them.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:08 AM   #66
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We changed our AA to be very conservative after 2008. Looking back I don't know why we didn't retire in 2007, call it good enough and move everything to conservative investments. We could have both retired several years earlier than we did. I learned back then, to paraphrase Warren Buffet, there was no point in risking the money I had and did need to make extra money I didn't have and didn't need.
Great quote!

Down 10% from high but have moved to more defensive 35/65 AA.

If/when market recovers to previous all time high I will be better off than I was before.

This downfall taught me to be more careful with individual stocks in my IRA portfolio. 401k is all ETFs/funds.

Got greedy and suffered heavy MLP and REIT losses early on. Kept solid stocks (PG, SO, D, BX,...) and they are doing fine.

Sold dogs very early in the slaughter and nibbling into SPY. Eventually will add other ETFs.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:12 AM   #67
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Which is what bureaucracies are for. So when the unlucky elected official actually has to decide what to do, there are people who are already there who know what to do to provide options then know how to do them.
True enough, but it is the elected officials who control the purse strings on the physical and management resource stockpiles that may be needed.

Actually, I mentioned the FEMA ICS system. It predates my time but I understand that it came out of Katrina, where organizations found it almost impossible to work together because vocabulary and org charts were incompatible and sometimes incomprehensible. ICS tries to fix that. Ditto radio communications: In 9/11 the responders couldn't talk to each other because of incompatible radios and frequencies. This is being worked; our state has a trunked radio system that can be software-configured quickly to create "talk groups" of compatible radios regardless of which agencies are involved.

A bigger problem is $$ to create and maintain stockpiles of things that might be needed for a particular black swan: respirators, beds, drugs, anti-nerve agents, etc. (One big problem that the military has worked is determining the "real" shelf life of drugs in order to minimize the cost of maintaining their stockpiles.)
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:28 AM   #68
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It's taught me to be humble and grateful we're retired and comfortably FI, almost no matter what happens (AA below). So it hasn't led me to lose any sleep, or change my AA at all - just like '87, '00 & '09. If anything I'll up my equity and bond allocations as I have way more dry powder than ever before, but I'm not in any hurry.

And I believe our investments will recover nicely, just don't know if it will take months or years, though the latter seems more likely in my uneducated view.

I am genuinely concerned about the millions of people just beginning their careers or finding their way in the job market, at least the many who've made the right choices but will be badly hurt financially if not otherwise.
+2

DW and I are writing a check (probably first of several) to the local food bank for those less fortunate.

We are already sending money to relatives.
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Old 04-09-2020, 10:34 AM   #69
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+2

DW and I are writing a check (probably first of several) to the local food bank for those less fortunate.

We are already sending money to relatives.
Good for you guys! We have done this for years now (long before this event), and it always feels good to provide that help.
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Old 04-09-2020, 11:35 AM   #70
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1. Our supply chain is incredibly resilient

2. We found out who the essential workers are and they are undervalued in our society

3. Paranoia doesn't pay
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:08 PM   #71
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I had started to move our equity percentage downward in January, as I had not been as comfortable with it as I was (we were over 75%), moving closer to 60/35/5 or 50/45/5
This was the first big downturn since we retired, and even with a pension, I now know our AA was too off kilter for me. I will see where we are in a month or two.

I do feel very blessed to be retired and financially OK, as many in my family are currently either young and laid off or having to work and in their 60's.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:15 PM   #72
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At my age and experience level I haven't learned much. Still plodding along and trying not to make any big mistakes. I've had a few near death and close calls, none of which I ever anticipated. If this virus doesn't kill or severely harm any of my loved one's I'll consider myself lucky.
The financial stuff is piece of cake. Know when you have enough and don't get too greedy.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:17 PM   #73
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That DW and I are very lucky, and that good planning combined with luck should not be confused with being smart. Being lucky can end unexpectedly.
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Old 04-09-2020, 12:56 PM   #74
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Financial yea, keeping multiple years in cash equivalents is smart. I feel fortunate that last year I went from 60/37/3 to 50/35/15. It's currently a little lighter on equities now but I'm not making many moves. I'd like to say I was genius and predicted this, nah I was nervous about equities getting frothy and afraid of interest rate issues so I stayed with what I understood.

What it did drive home are lessons I learned from my depression era mother. Keep a well stocked pantry and medications. Plan on no groceries for a while, act accordingly. The TP shortage allows me a guilt free way to buy a bidet attachment to our MB toilet.

I did follow another poster's idea about reusable kitchen towels and will continue using them for cooking. Some of our meals have been interesting and enjoyable. Funny how you crave things our lunches have been very healthy and all homemade. Today I made a grocery store run and DW asked if I would go to McDonald's and get her a quarter pounder with cheese. I agreed but thought it was a goofy idea as I don't care for McDonald's. I got one too, best thing I have eaten in weeks.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:01 PM   #75
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1. Our supply chain is incredibly resilient

2. We found out who the essential workers are and they are undervalued in our society

3. Paranoia doesn't pay
1) Apparently not simple stuff like TP or hand sanitizer. Lots of typical capitalist excuses going around on "supply chain" stuff. They already knew better but went for that bottom line thing instead.

2) We always know that we just don't want to look at it because then we'll have to pay them more. I don't believe this will change. Like everything else we need but "simply can't afford it."

3) Fear is quite lucrative for some sectors. It even gets mentioned here often enough.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:06 PM   #76
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1. Our supply chain is incredibly resilient

2. We found out who the essential workers are and they are undervalued in our society

3. Paranoia doesn't pay
Amen to that.

1) The huge drops in our net worth (with our 80-20 AA) doesn't bother me in the slightest. (Granted, I can't predict how I will feel when it happens after the paychecks stop.) For now, I've learned I don't sweat the six-figure losses. DW gets anxious so I've stopped including her in my morbid fascination with the NW changes.

2) Reliable, salaried w*rk is a major blessing. I will use this experience as an example and a learning point for my children in the future.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:23 PM   #77
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1. Our supply chain is incredibly resilient

2. We found out who the essential workers are and they are undervalued in our society

3. Paranoia doesn't pay
Yep on number 2. Health care workers and Public Employees. Let's make sure their pensions never go away.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:29 PM   #78
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Yep on number 2. Health care workers and Public Employees. Let's make sure their pensions never go away.
Not to change the subject, but you do realize that most essential workers do not have a pension ?
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:29 PM   #79
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...DW and I are writing a check (probably first of several) to the local food bank for those less fortunate. ...
Yup. Good idea. We donate through a fund that we have with a local community foundation. Through the fund we gave $1250 to the food shelf and I was successful in getting the community foundation to match. So $2500 net to the food shelf.

We're expecting to be asked for a similar amount not too far into the future and we are ready with that too.
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Old 04-09-2020, 01:32 PM   #80
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1) Apparently not simple stuff like TP or hand sanitizer. Lots of typical capitalist excuses going around on "supply chain" stuff. They already knew better but went for that bottom line thing instead.

2) We always know that we just don't want to look at it because then we'll have to pay them more. I don't believe this will change. Like everything else we need but "simply can't afford it."

3) Fear is quite lucrative for some sectors. It even gets mentioned here often enough.
On number 2 maybe not have to pay them more but honor what they signed up for as far as a pension.
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