Your 2021 S&P Prediction.

[sengsational]

Who won last year's?

 

[MuirWannabe]

Who won last year's?

Marty McFly

 

[swaneesr]

3,418, down 9%

It is time for stocks to go on sale again. Time for a little drama to test my mental toughness and belief that the stock market is an incredible wealth building tool that is filled with drama.

I wouldn’t worry everyone. I have been wrong about everything regarding COVID-19 so far...... price of durable goods, spending patterns of the masses.. all opposed to what I thought would happen.

I have just accepted I can’t predict the stock market or anything else.

Swanee

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

3,418, down 9%
I have just accepted I can’t predict the stock market or anything else.

Swanee

Nobody else can either.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

Nobody else can either.

Yes, but many of them have not yet accepted this!

 

[jimbee]

It will probably end higher at the end of the year than it was at the start. That's why I invest in total market stock funds.

 

[sengsational]

Only 6.6% of respondents got close to the actual last year.


It was a poll, and it closed early January. 17.88 was the result, according to the first link I found.

 

[cyber888]

4200 - 4300 (minimum - very conservative)

 

[f35phixer]

17.733% = 666 points. the DEVIL IS GOING DOWN THIS YEAR = 4422.

lets have a wonderful year please. Deserve it for my first year of retirement !!!!!!!!

;-)

 

[Fielding]

Another wrong guess

4056 (+8%)

 

[GravitySucks]

So a quick count -
17 to 5; up to down.

 

[Raygun99]

3500000000000.75

 

[HI Bill]

Since the market is forward-looking, we should have enough COVID vaccine for everyone who will take it, and another round of stimulus payments, I'm going with +12 to 15%.

 

[shafer9]

When you think about it, chicken intros may actually be in for more scientific method of approaching this than most other wall street gurus would admit.

 

[Exchme]

Like every year, my prediction is it will vary. I have yet to be wrong.

Seriously, in years I thought were going to be great, the market finished down and in years that seemed to be awful, it has finished up. So who knows.

 

[kgtest]

Haven't seen one of these.

Oooh me likey! We used to have one of these way back in the day. Thanks for starting I wanna play. Let's see... roll the dice...shake the 8 ball... takes a looksie... rub the genie's bottle.

4500. Trade gets a shake-up in some strange manner... the economy starts reporting better job gains...earnings continue...

or stock buybacks happen at record pace and ...ahh heck who knows.

 

[corn18]

I think the Shiller PE will want to reset back to 30 (10% correction). There should be earnings growth, so price will not go down 10%. I think we will run up to 4300 (might go as high as 5,000) and correct back down to 3,700 towards the end of the year.

But (and this is a BIIIIIIG BUTT), I am retiring in 57 days, so that should cause a 50% correction. Just like me buying my first snow blower ever this past fall has prevented all snow so far this year.

 

[davebarnes]

Up
Down
No change

 

[CardsFan]

I think the Shiller PE will want to reset back to 30 (10% correction). There should be earnings growth, so price will not go down 10%. I think we will run up to 4300 (might go as high as 5,000) and correct back down to 3,700 towards the end of the year.

But (and this is a BIIIIIIG BUTT), I am retiring in 57 days, so that should cause a 50% correction. Just like me buying my first snow blower ever this past fall has prevented all snow so far this year.

OK, so I have 56 days to sell before you stink up the works. Thanks.

 

[kcowan]

Take your pick:
https://www.financialwisdomforum.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=686235#p686235
Runs every year. Entries closed a week ago.

 

[dixter]

hard to tell... if the interest rates go up at all then all bets are off the table... that by itself could crash the entire market place... bonds for sure will crash... I saw a bond from Disney that is priced at 100% above par... $2000/bond .... I have never seen bonds as high as they are today....

 

[mickeyd]

5% increase from 12/31/20. I always pick 5% increase. I have yet to win though.

 

[dixter]

look who showed up with his insights today on youtube...
interesting, at least for thought...

 

[UnrealizedPotential]

My guess is the SP500 will end 2021 around 4507. Guessing this holds no responsibility because even if I guess right it would be sheer luck.

 

[kcowan]

4037 average of our contest guesses