hesperus
Full time employment: Posting here.
Just take the yield and run. Who knows....
that may be the best game around for awhile
Just take the yield and run. Who knows....
Is oil price at the bottom already? Some economists think it is while other point out to much lower price due to very possible recession in 2016.
Oil is definitely putting in at least a short term bottom based on how the market is reacting, whether it is a final bottom who knows? As for why there is lower prices it seems clear to me the economy overall is on a treadmill of lower usage of labor or materials to purchase items which requires lower cost processes. Optimization of shipping production and retail is increasing all the time. Viewing the usage of human labor as waste in the production of goods is leading to lower and lower usage of human capital and ever increasing levels of technology and mechanical labor. This is also true at production sites of new oil drill sites as many of these sites have been made far more productive than prior drill sites lowering the cost per barrel and increasing production, price is usually set at the margin.
Robots are coming for your job: Amazon, McDonald’s and the next wave of dangerous capitalist “disruption” - Salon.com
Oil Companies Tap New Technologies to Lower Production Costs - WSJ
This has been seen in all the oil calls as each company continues to expect the others to cut production while each company is touting it's own new highly efficient means of production that will let it lift production 4-8 percent with less labor. Overall the cut in interest has made giant leaps in technology affordable for companies.
Is oil price at the bottom already? Some economists think it is while other point out to much lower price due to very possible recession in 2016.
Is oil price at the bottom already? Some economists think it is while other point out to much lower price due to very possible recession in 2016.
Heard oil was up like 9% this week.
Congress’ decision to lift the 40-year U.S. ban on crude oil exports reflects the same misinformed and distorted thinking that declares that the world’s highest cost producer–tight oil–can somehow also be the world’s swing producer.
The 1975 export ban was enacted because of the disastrous economic consequences of becoming dependent on imports following the peaking of U.S. oil production in 1970. Now that oil production is again close to peak levels, we have apparently forgotten that imports were the problem then and that we import twice as much today as in 1975.
Interesting article, thanks for sharing. Investment or gamble, I'm still buying big oil....Here's a good article explaining the world's oil situation. It is really written to explain the recent lifting of the U.S. ban on selling crude oil worldwide, but the article does a good job pointing out the situation in detail.
Forbes Welcome
Hey, Chipotle has done a great job, no doubt, but you're still comparing growth rates off of bases that are an order of magnitude different. Lots of companies grow strong out of the gate. Will Chipolte still be doing great in 10 years? Or will it fall by the wayside like a large percentage or restaurant companies do?
How big do you think Chipotle is going to get? That PE of 55 is going to take a massive amount of fast growth to justify. Although a little less will be needed tomorrow when the stock opens.
I'm not sure comparing book values of a company that funds massive dividends and buybacks and one that still mostly building out new restaurants really makes much sense. Would you like MCD more if it had kept all that cash sitting around?
On the plus side, CMG just authorized expanding their stock buyback, so they will spend $200 million of that book value reducing their share count by 1%.
I think I'll stick with MCD. We'll see how things look in 2025.
T Boone Pickens is just killing me! A year ago he predicted by end of 2015 oil would be 70-75. Today he says by the end of the year oil will be 70-75, he was only off by a year!! After stating that Oil then collapses in price. Now I do not pretend to know what the price of oil will be by year end, possible to be 75 also possible to be $15.00. This year is the year of major pain for oil and the related dependent companies if the price does not recover, to bank on a recovery is not a plan, it is wishful thinking. Remember that when you pick companies to invest in......
Agree, but I believe that the probability of oil and gas survivors outdoing bonds over 2-3 years is very large, not slight. Meanwhile the oil industry will shrink, and undergo consolidation. Also, in addition to higher probabilities, the payoffs will be much greater. Likely involving a lot more thrills and chills than short to intermediate bonds. But this is as it should be.Yeah. I think Howard Marks said it best... no one has anything intelligent to say about the price of Oil... mostly because the things that impact that are so numerous and unpredictable that it's silly to try and say "it'll be $x by time period Y." It'll be somewhere between 0 and infinity by the end of the year .
What I DO think is that there is a reasonable probability that the world will continue to use more oil and that there will be less of it during that time for at least the next 10-20 years; and I think that the companies that can have some ability to profit from that ecosystem will return above average returns to their shareholders based on their price today (assuming they survive). How and when that happens... I have no idea and if it takes long enough... yes... being late/early is indistinguishable from being wrong. All investments are probable outcomes, right .
I simply think that the probability of that happening is slightly better than, for example, bonds returning higher than average returns... tech companies... consumer cyclicals, gold, etc. Relative to other opportunities I think oil companies in particular are reasonably cheap... so far they have just gotten cheaper.
Agree, but I believe that the probability of oil and gas survivors outdoing bonds over 2-3 years is very large, not slight. Meanwhile the oil industry will shrink, and undergo consolidation. Also, in addition to higher probabilities, the payoffs will be much greater. Likely involving a lot more thrills and chills than short to intermediate bonds. But this is as it should be.
Ha
Agreed, but figuring out the big winners is beyond me. And just making the simple integrated oil Exxon play isn't going to make untold riches. That darn stock sits like a statue in the wind.....Including dividends, if you bought it at peak 18 months ago, you wouldn't even be out 20%. And yes it does frustrate me because I would jump in if it was in the 50's. Yet, the market isn't going to allow this to happen.
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XOM is even UP today, in the midst of the sturm und drang.
makes me tempted to buy, if it ever goes below $70........
That trade is way too lazy for your abilities, Coolius. Time for you to make a killing and load up Chesapeake 2017 and 2021 bonds!
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But he is long gone from CHK.Nah, I don't like the way Aubrey McClendon parts his hair.......