What's got people excited about the future of the economy?

[mrWinter]

I'm looking at the S&P P/E ratios today and thinking wow, people sure are optimistic about future growth. I'm wondering what people think will be driving GDP growth in the future long-term. I understand much of 2017's gains are likely due to optimism about the effects of lowered corporate and individual taxes, but that doesn't seem like a big systemic long-term change (And personally I think supply-side economics is ultimately a drag on GDP long-term, but oops, does that count as politics? Or can we call that economic theory? Sorry.).

Looking back I see big ticket game changers that have driven growth: the industrial revolution, women entering the workforce nearly doubling the workforce, the information age - computers and the web... what now?

Electric cars? 3-D Printing? Neither of those sounds to me like that big a deal, just improvements on the current state.

AI? Genetic engineering? I can imagine maybe these being game changers, but could also fizzle, or cause as much trouble as they help.

Fusion power? Asteroid Mining? Getting far fetched now, might never happen, and even if it did maybe wouldn't add that much to growth.

Flying cars? Oh come on, you know we aren't ever getting flying cars...

Clearly I lack vision, or at least optimism. What do you think will be the next game changer?

 

[NW-Bound]

Back in 1999, people were also optimistic about the new millenium and the Internet. Of course, the Internet became a really big deal and everyone has broadband access now. Smartphones were unknown at that time, and are ubiquitous now.

Still companies' P/E could only grow so much. And P/E is what drives stock prices in the long run.

Some of the futuristic stuff may play out. However, my vision of the future is more like something out of grimy science fiction like "Blade Runner" or "Outland". We are more likely to have advanced technology simultaneously with poverty, crimes, drug abuse, political unrest, etc...

 

[Ronstar]

I don’t think that there will be a single game changer. Technology is growing exponentially across the board, resulting in increased productivity. That, and folks are finally digging out after the 2008 recession to the point where they are starting to spend again.

 

[Rianne]

The $1000 bonuses companies are giving, I don't see as generous. Why not give raises if the new tax plan is so awesome? The middle class drives our economy. Credit drives our economy. What difference does it make what new fangled product is out there? We like to spend, that drives our economy. We're fascinated by new technologies, like new toys, fascinated for a while until something else comes along. A perfect example is iPhone 3,4,5,6,7,8... I have an iPhone 5 until it no longer supports current technology. Ok rant is officially over.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

Some of the futuristic stuff may play out. However, my vision of the future is more like something out of grimy science fiction like "Blade Runner" or "Outland". We are more likely to have advanced technology simultaneously with poverty, crimes, drug abuse, political unrest, etc...

I always think of George Jetson taking the moving sidewalk to his work desk, where he sets down his briefcase, props up his feet and takes a snooze ... because in the future, work was going to be so easy. In the real future, Mr. Spacely would have laid George off in 2008.

Edit ... and had him escorted from the building.

 

[SheitlQueen]

The $1000 bonuses companies are giving, I don't see as generous. Why not give raises if the new tax plan is so awesome?

There are several companies that have announced they are giving raises, many to a $15/hour minimum. Whether others follow suit is another story.

 

[RobbieB]

I saw a homeless guy begging at a strip mall. He had a sign that read;

"Bring Back Factories"

 

[Ian S]

I saw a homeless guy begging at a strip mall. He had a sign that read;

"Bring Back Factories"

The factories mostly aren't coming back and those that do will be mostly automated - with smart robots that will eventually be smarter than we are. This sobering article explains what is about to happen over the next decades so enjoy things while you can as no one is preparing for what this article predicts.
You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think – Mother Jones

 

[Walt34]

The factories mostly aren't coming back and those that do will be mostly automated - with smart robots that will eventually be smarter than we are.

I'm inclined to agree. There's a new Proctor & Gamble manufacturing plant near here opening within a month or two. The plant will make (I think) paper towels, some lotions, shampoo, stuff like that. They've also partnered with the local community & technical college to have the classes that the new hires will have to have before even applying for a job. Several of the classes/courses of study are on maintaining robots.

What that means is that virtually every new hire will need to have at least some type of technical certification if not at least an AA degree to even be considered. Those without education need not apply. And these are the entry-level jobs!

 

[gerntz]

Two fewer regulations for every one created. People stopped worrying about the next hammer to hit them.

 

[MRG]

The factories mostly aren't coming back and those that do will be mostly automated - with smart robots that will eventually be smarter than we are. This sobering article explains what is about to happen over the next decades so enjoy things while you can as no one is preparing for what this article predicts.
You Will Lose Your Job to a Robot—and Sooner Than You Think – Mother Jones

The last twenty years of my career was spent replacing data entry people with software. What value does a human add in re-keying what another human wrote? Obviously the internet has helped eliminate thousands more .

There's little sense in putting humans on new assembly lines, they're inferior to machines.

 

[unclemick]

Back in the late 60's and 70's stocks sucked. Real Estate, guns(collectible) and gold. A few tech products of the space race had some hope. Dividends could be counted on for certain companies. ETC.

My picks have been more wrong than right every decade since - except 'Bogle's Folly' and maybe just maybe pssst Wellesley.

'Buy the haystack and keep it - cause the needles are in there somewhere'.

Spend 4% WR in ER give or take.

heh heh heh - The DOW was never to go above 1000 in my lifetime. Right!

 

[Ian S]

There's little sense in putting humans on new assembly lines, they're inferior to machines.

That's absolutely true even now. But once AI is equal to or superior to human intelligence, then there are no jobs whatsoever that won't be better done by robots. None.

 

[VanWinkle]

The biggest game changer will be the spread of Capitalism into the countries with the largest population including the Islamic countries. Less things get blown up when everyone is trying to make money!!!

 

[flintnational]

The internet has spread information to the far corners of the world. 25 years ago you had to sit in a university class room to receive a college education for highly technical fields. Today 100's of millions of young folks (think China, India, Eastern Europe, Asia) have access to all human knowledge including, engineering, science, business, simply with an internet connection. Like most human advancement, today it is hard for us to predict what they will invent and improve. But it will be significant. Vastly more humans will be trained and productive than at any point in history. IMHO, the future is brighter than ever.

 

[Sunset]

.....
There's little sense in putting humans on new assembly lines, they're inferior to machines.

Once AI becomes sufficiently aware, it will realize humans are unnecessary, and a waste of resources.

The end of humanity will soon follow..

 

[NW-Bound]

The internet has spread information to the far corners of the world. 25 years ago you had to sit in a university class room to receive a college education for highly technical fields. Today 100's of millions of young folks (think China, India, Eastern Europe, Asia) have access to all human knowledge including, engineering, science, business, simply with an internet connection. Like most human advancement, today it is hard for us to predict what they will invent and improve. But it will be significant. Vastly more humans will be trained and productive than at any point in history. IMHO, the future is brighter than ever.

Dunno.

There's a lot of good info on the Web, but do people want to learn?

Once AI becomes sufficiently aware, it will realize humans are unnecessary, and a waste of resources.

The end of humanity will soon follow..

In order to eliminate humans, robots will have to do all the dirty work to mine raw materials, run and maintain power plants, etc... After all, robots have parts that fail, and they need electricity for power, hydraulic fluid for their joints, etc...

I say they will keep humans and use them as slaves.

 

[flintnational]

Dunno.

There's a lot of good info on the Web, but do people want to learn?

I suspect the children of rice farmers around the world are very interested in improving their situation. Maybe not so much in North America and Europe.

 

[meierlde]

Dunno.

There's a lot of good info on the Web, but do people want to learn?


In order to eliminate humans, robots will have to do all the dirty work to mine raw materials, run and maintain power plants, etc... After all, robots have parts that fail, and they need electricity for power, hydraulic fluid for their joints, etc...

I say they will keep humans and use them as slaves.

Many of the jobs cited will also be much more automated the newest combined cycle plants need fewer workers than the past, partly due to diagnostic software in the units. Take minining for an example if you talk surface mining, the trucks will become self driving first because a mine is a far more predictable place than the streets, as well as you can have a central control room when the truck gets confused. Indeed a lot of the equipment like shovels could also be controlled from a central office. When the economics make sense service robots will appear,
I do sometimes wonder if we will have to do like ancient Rome and Constantinople did and provide bread and video(virtual reality) games as Clarke suggested in the City and the Stars.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Dunno.
...
I say they will keep humans and use them as slaves.

Don't corporations already do that?

 

[VanWinkle]

Don't corporations already do that?

Mine didn't, you were working for the wrong one!!

 

[MRG]

Mine didn't, you were working for the wrong one!!

At mine they ate our young.

 

[CaliforniaMan]

Mine didn't, you were working for the wrong one!!

Yes you are right, my boss was intolerable, I was self employed

 

[VanWinkle]

At mine they ate our young.

And that was a bad thing?

 

[aja8888]

The factories mostly aren't coming back......

I can guarantee the factories in Connecticut are not coming back, and neither are the thousands of jobs that went away. Sad.