Made it 5 months without getting Covid-19

[Brat]

My circle has been covid19 free, so far. With all wearing masks, staying distant and washing hands the flu season may be light this year. If a flu vaccine is available for seniors I will get it!

 

[Dtail]

All courts are outdoors in Florida as far as I know. She prefers to play doubles but that isn't going to happen. Too close to partners with heavy breathing. Twice now she has played singles with a friend where there is a private court available. The only contact she has is with the tennis ball and then she has alcohol wipes that she uses. But as much as she enjoyed playing she may wait until things settle down before playing there again. Maybe sometime next year. We are both in our 70s so we don't want to "poke the bear".


Cheers!

I understand. All of us middle age "athletes" have decisions to make.
I do play doubles Pickleball outside, but will not play inside.

 

[Dtail]

I know several people who have gotten it and survived. I live in a 55+ community and they are not taking it very seriously IMHO. I keep staying home and trying to move 6 feet away when people are talking with me.

Until someone they know gets it and either gets very sick or dies, a lot of people around me will continue to think it's political.

Just another reason why we will never consider the Villages as an example. Same stuff going on there.

 

[Brat]

This song was sent to me by a friend, enjoy.

The Longest Time

https://enchantmentathamilton.org/2...54VVA1YClQtus5E4pZuFje-QW5TD8Kf2iruasQe1iuR1U

 

[Chuckanut]

I hears that somewhere in Canada they have 10 person bubbles. A group of 10 people decide to only associate freely with each other. No need for masks or other protections when indoors our outdoors if one is only with their other bubble people. Outside of the bubble, masks, social distancing etc. all come into play.

There is a 14 day quarantine to start, then it's party time with the other 9 people.
Bubbles are monogamous. You can only be in one bubble at a time.
If you want to leave one bubble and go to another bubble, the 14 day quarantine raises its ugly head again.

Obviously, all ten people have to be very responsible.

 

[cbo111]

I understand. All of us middle age "athletes" have decisions to make.
I do play doubles Pickleball outside, but will not play inside.

Same for me. I play tennis and pickleball, singles only. On the plus side, its getting me in better shape.
I try to keep 6 ft from my opponent at all times. When we take a break between games and are chatting, I frequently notice they will walk toward me as I back up. A lot of people don't seem to know how long 6 feet actually is.

 

[tmm99]

I hears that somewhere in Canada they have 10 person bubbles. A group of 10 people decide to only associate freely with each other. No need for masks or other protections when indoors our outdoors if one is only with their other bubble people. Outside of the bubble, masks, social distancing etc. all come into play.

There is a 14 day quarantine to start, then it's party time with the other 9 people.
Bubbles are monogamous. You can only be in one bubble at a time.
If you want to leave one bubble and go to another bubble, the 14 day quarantine raises its ugly head again.

Obviously, all ten people have to be very responsible.

This sounds like a great idea. However, I don't think I can trust other people... I trust DH, yes, but people say a lot of things and their definition of social distancing and mask-wearing could be totally different from mine.

 

[Sue J]

This song was sent to me by a friend, enjoy.



The Longest Time



https://enchantmentathamilton.org/2...54VVA1YClQtus5E4pZuFje-QW5TD8Kf2iruasQe1iuR1U

Wonderful! Thanks for posting this. I really enjoyed it.

 

[Midpack]

I hears that somewhere in Canada they have 10 person bubbles. A group of 10 people decide to only associate freely with each other. No need for masks or other protections when indoors our outdoors if one is only with their other bubble people. Outside of the bubble, masks, social distancing etc. all come into play.

There is a 14 day quarantine to start, then it's party time with the other 9 people.
Bubbles are monogamous. You can only be in one bubble at a time.
If you want to leave one bubble and go to another bubble, the 14 day quarantine raises its ugly head again.

Obviously, all ten people have to be very responsible.

Some of our neighbors have formed “bubbles” on their own. The family across the street from us associates only with two other families, they socialize and their kids play together in each other’s homes/yards exclusively. They started their bubble in late March, and none of them have been infected yet. Seems to be a good alternative to total isolation or random socializing.

 

[rk911]

Um, maybe 3% of the U.S. population has had Covid with symptoms or confirmed.

it's more like 1.5% (~ 5,000,000 cases/330,000,000,people). the IFR (infection/fatlity ratio) is closer to 3% (157,000 deaths). 98.5% of population is not infected and of those who are 97% survive.

 

[Souschef]

I am over 80, and DW has COPD,so were are both in the at risk groups. We are fortunate to live in a county with 846,000 people and we have only had 76 deaths and 7,400 cases.
We have an relatively isolated place next to the ocean where we can set up our "day camp" and be socially distanced from others. It is a great spot to be able to get out safely.

 

[USGrant1962]

it's more like 1.5% (~ 5,000,000 cases/330,000,000,people). the IFR (infection/fatlity ratio) is closer to 3% (157,000 deaths). 98.5% of population is not infected and of those who are 97% survive.

Yea, I know it is ~1.5% for confirmed cases. I just doubled it for the asymptomatic. Point stands, why OP is "surprised" they are part of the >95% who have not had Covid (confirmed or not) is bewildering.

 

[rk911]

Yea, I know it is ~1.5% for confirmed cases. I just doubled it for the asymptomatic. Point stands, why OP is "surprised" they are part of the >95% who have not had Covid (confirmed or not) is bewildering.

gotcha. i didn't figure for untested asymptomstics.

reading the cv19 posts in this and other forums it's clear the level of fear is all over the chart from 'what, me worry?" all the way to those on the "you can't be too careful" and everything in-between. there is no right or wrong in any of that, no criticism....it's just is what it is. we're all different.

i've always been cursed with a more analytical mind than not. i look at numbers. i'm not a math major, far from it. but numbers give me comfort. i try to quantify risk. when i see that confirmed cases represent 1.5% of the population i am comforted. about a month ago we were notified that a "friend of a friend of a friend" tested positive. we were 4-steps removed from him but out of caution we self-quarantined for 14-days and asked our doc to quantify our risk. he put it at <1 on a 10 scale. that gave us comfort. by the way...everybody in that chain except the guy first in line is fine. guy #2 tested neg, twice. we and #3 did not test.

we don't want to catch it and we also don't think it's inevitable that we will catch it. if we do catch it our odds of death are a bit greater than 3% since we are old-er. so we take what we feel are reasonable precautions. but we are currently living our lives. and, despite our precautions, that would surely horrify those on the "ya can't be too careful" end of the spectrum while simultaneously puzzling the Alfred E. Neuman crowd. again, 'tis what it 'tis.

 

[RAE]

+1. If you’re reasonably careful about distancing/crowds, masks, cleaning/touching surfaces - the odds are substantially against being infected. It shouldn’t be a surprise for most people. Every infection report I’ve heard has involved unwise exposure (family gatherings, parties), unavoidable exposures (health care/essential workers, nursing homes) or its been left unexplained (interestingly). I am sure there are exceptions, but they’re very few and far between IMO.

Agreed. I understand that some people have underlying health conditions and need to eliminate as much risk as possible. But if you generally avoid crowded areas (especially crowded indoor areas), and stick with outdoor activities as much as possible, I think the risk of contracting it is probably very low, based on everything I've read. Being retired, it is not too difficult for me to adhere to those guidelines. For those still working, it may be more difficult.

 

[RAE]

I was convinced that I had Covid starting 29th February, plus I gave it to our son who got it much worse than me. Many of the symptoms, and I was sure I had caught it during my weekly trips to the pub with my BIL. He was even sicker than me and went to the GP twice in February.

He received a letter from the NHS this week inviting him to take a Covid antibodies test as they are going back and reviewing possible missed cases. They sent him a home test kit, finger prick blood test, take a photo of the result, upload it online and answer a few questions. He did the test last night and got the result today. Negative. Should not be surprised really as his wife (my sister) got it bad enough to be told to go to hospital where she was tested for Covid - negative. She had pleurisy which was amplified by her Lupus.

Based on what I have been reading lately, the antibody test is essentially worthless if you have it done more than 60 days after you think you were infected with COVID-19. By that time, the antibodies are largely gone However, you may still have "T cells", which are another part of the immune system that remember and attack the invading virus if you are exposed again.

I was sick in early March with symptoms much the same as those attributed to COVID-19. At that time, I was told to just stay home and self-treat, which I did, and I got over it in about 6-7 days. No testing for COVID-19 was even being offered yet where I was. I later read about the antibody test, which I went and got in June, which was the first time it was offered here. Nobody knew then that most of the antibodies against COVID-19 only last roughly 60 days - had I known that, I wouldn't have bothered to even get the test. As far as I know, there is no test being widely offered (yet) that looks for the T cells, although it can be done, as researchers are testing people for T cells in various studies lately.

So, I would not eliminate the possibility that you and/or your BIL did indeed have COVID-19. I still think it is likely that I had it, although I may never know for sure.

 

[eytonxav]

We have done fine, despite divorced DD, a supermarket mgr, living with us. We also get together periodically with DS/DIL indoors without masks and I play senior softball. DW developed a sore throat after getting fitted for a crown and we thought she might have the virus, but she tested negative and an antibiotic quickly got rid of her sore throat. I still believe case numbers are not accurate. I heard that someone who was in contact with an individual who tested positive was contact traced, and were told if they refused to get tested, they would be counted as positive. Twenty one individuals were reported to have been traced from the infected individual, but do not know how many were tested.

 

[RAE]

it's more like 1.5% (~ 5,000,000 cases/330,000,000,people). the IFR (infection/fatlity ratio) is closer to 3% (157,000 deaths). 98.5% of population is not infected and of those who are 97% survive.

1.5% may represent the number of "known" cases, but in reality, the number of people infected is probably 10X (or higher) than that, as mentioned by CDC Director Robert Redfield in the article below:

https://thehill.com/policy/healthca...fections-likely-10-times-higher-than-reported

And here's another short article about the same thing (with some even higher estimates of how many people may have been infected):

https://www.foxnews.com/health/coro...-suggests-infections-are-widely-underreported

It's not just asymptomatic people that add to the much higher total; there were almost certainly MANY people infected with the virus back in February/March/early April when none (or very few) of the health facilities were even offering the COVID-19 test, unless you met strict criteria (you had recent contact with someone who had traveled here from countries like China, or you had known exposure to someone who had tested positive). And to top it all off, studies now show that the antibody tests being offered will probably not detect antibodies in those people who take the test more than 60 days after they got infected. So, antibody testing is not really going to shed much light on how many of these never-diagnosed COVID people are out there.

So, we'll likely never know for sure how many people have already had this virus, but it's certainly WAY higher than that represented by the 1.5% percentage you often see quoted.

 

[Rianne]

Some of our neighbors have formed “bubbles” on their own. The family across the street from us associates only with two other families, they socialize and their kids play together in each other’s homes/yards exclusively. They started their bubble in late March, and none of them have been infected yet. Seems to be a good alternative to total isolation or random socializing.

We're in an 8 person bubble. Although my DB has eaten at restaurants indoors. And DH went on a golf overnight in Chicago. Single carts at golf, no one rode there in the same car. Distanced from each other. I can't seem to get the ER news videos of people on ventilators out of my head. And cautionary tales of those who survived warning "This is real." And "Long Hauler" articles and testimonies. Yet the numbers seem small in relation to our total population.

I will continue to be vigilant. Our university is bringing students back and there will be dorms, and indoor classes. Schools will reopen. Of course, testing, masks, distancing in place and safety practices.

Our county of ~200,000 has 1448 confirmed cases. 890 of those are between the ages of 11-40 yrs. old. And 14 are currently hospitalized. 95 cases are the age 11 and under. I feel like I'm missing something. This doesn't seem that bad.

 

[Poopycat]

Frankly, I’m surprised I haven’t gotten it yet. I moved, had prospective buyers/movers/vendors wander through my house, got a haircut so I’d look presentable in my new job, worked at an office location for multiple weeks, and stayed in multiple hotels during my move and relocation. Also had to come in contact with rental agents when I was looking for apartments, an I’m back to tennis clinics. Even did one inside, which scared me, but I seem to be ok.

I’m now working from home until at least January. I’m in a new city, in a 700-square foot apartment, and I don’t know anybody in town. If I don’t die from the virus, I might die from boredom or loneliness. But I must say, at least in my immediate location, I’m impressed by the population and their vigilance with wearing masks both inside buildings and on the streets. Much better than where I just came from.

 

[zedd]

I'm surprised that I made it through March, April, May, June, and finally July without getting Covid-19.
...

How do you know that? If you want to say that you've had no Covid19-like symptoms in that time period, well okay I get that. But in the absence of testing how can you say with confidence that you don't now nor have you ever had Covid19?


EDIT: oops, see others have posted similar point. Wasn't trying to beat a dead horse

 

[Brat]

1.5%, or 3%? Doubt it.

17% of those TESTED in the town of Hermiston, Oregon have tested positive. In addition to the agricultural processors mentioned below Boardman is the location of a power plant and the Army Chemical Munitions Depot (where I lived as a small child during WWII). Oregon has the reputation of being socially stand-off-ish, we are not known to gather in close social groups. Umatilla County is back in lock-down.

News report:

This morning, one reason became clear: An Oregon State University door-to-door canvass suggests 17% of the county's largest city, Hermiston, has COVID.

The OSU public health study teams canvassed 471 people in Hermiston last weekend. Forty-one of them tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. University researchers estimate that 169 of every 1,000 people in Hermiston have the virus, or 3,000 people total.

"Our results indicate the virus is extremely widespread in Hermiston and more prevalent than previous data had indicated," said Ben Dalziel, an OSU assistant science professor and co-director of the project. "Half of the 30 randomly selected neighborhoods we visited had at least one positive participant. This means that the virus is very widespread within the community, not clustered in only a few locations."

OSU researchers also took samples from the sewers of Hermiston and Boardman, where they found "consistently strong viral signals in both cities that have remained very high and not decreased over time," said Tyler Radniecki of the OSU College of Engineering.

Perhaps most disconcerting: The study found 80% of the Hermiston residents who tested positive had no symptoms. That suggests the virus could be spreading among city residents to the most vulnerable people.

The OSU study, called Team-based Rapid Assessment of Community-level coronavirus Epidemics, or TRACE, began this spring in Corvallis and later expanded to Bend and Newport. The university sent researchers to Hermiston after the Eastern Oregon city became an epicenter of the virus's spread.

Hermiston is an Oregon agricultural hub, famous for its watermelon crop. Four of the state's 12 largest active workplace outbreaks occurred at warehouses in the city: at Lamb Weston, a frozen potato packing plant; Medelez Trucking; Shearer's Foods, which packages potato chips and other snacks; and a Walmart Distribution Center.

Gov. Brown issued a statement on the study's findings. "This study confirms what we have feared based on weeks of troubling data from the Oregon Health Authority: The coronavirus has spread throughout Hermiston and threatens the entire community," she wrote. "Umatilla County is now in a 'baseline, stay home' status and we must do everything possible to contain these outbreaks."

The governor's office tells WW that Brown reviewed the OSU data before issuing her order to reclose the county.

Spokesman Charles Boyle says the governor's Thursday briefing "included a preliminary briefing on the OSU TRACE study and wastewater samples in Hermiston that added more data points to the trends we were seeing in climbing case rates and community spread."

 

[Christine]

A recent antibody test told me I haven't had C19 either. Despite weird symptoms back in Mars.


But like in the US people here in Norway are getting bored and start behaving like everything is back to normal. Many come back home from holiday abroad with C19 as a weird souvenir. And some of our intelligenzia decided to go on i cruise. Now over 30 of the ships staff have tested positive. And passenger testing is ongoing - some won the prize there too.


I hope we managed to knock down this second wave too or we might see more of the challenges you my US friends are having.

 

[kcowan]

NHL is in 2 Canadian bubbles now. We shall see if it is better than MLB or NBA

 

[Walt34]

We have managed so far to escape catching it, mostly by staying home except for grocery shopping and the very occasional trip to Home Depot or Lowes. I can count those on the fingers of one hand. Masks always when in any type of stores.

The timing could be better but DW wants new hardwood flooring in the family room to replace the carpet that doesn't have a doggone thing wrong with it. She even picked the color when we bought the house, a fact that I reminded her of. All the married guys know how well that went over. But she's wanted this for years, I can't claim we can't afford it, and she's very rarely one to spend on luxuries. Besides, she's cute.

So tomorrow we're going over to Carpet World (local store, been there for years) and view the actual flooring to see how well it'll match what we already have, which of course isn't made anymore. As for installation, the installers will wear masks, or I'll open all the windows in the middle of August, or it will wait until fall and then I'll open all the windows.

 

[ERD50]

Yea, I know it is ~1.5% for confirmed cases. I just doubled it for the asymptomatic. Point stands, why OP is "surprised" they are part of the >95% who have not had Covid (confirmed or not) is bewildering.

And to take the analysis a step further, those are cases since they've been tracking (~ 5 months). The CDC is estimating that most cases are contagious for up to 10 days, so if we accept that upper number as average to be conservative, it would mean (I think?) that the odds of a person being contagious at the time you meet them (using your 3% estimate above), would be 5 months ~ 21 weeks = 147 days, so then multiply the 3% times 10 days out of 147 days = 3*(10/147) ~ 0.2%.

So only 2 out of every 1,000 people you come across might be contagious, and you probably only come into close contact with a small % of that group.

EDIT: OK, some posted that USGrant1962's doubling of the 1.5% might be too conservative, but even if add another 5x factor, that brings it to just 1 out of 100 people at any one point in time. And even if you got close enough to be exposed, that doesn't mean you will contract it.

I'm trying to be careful, but I'm not going to extremes (and that's not a judgement on those who are going to extremes, it's a personal, and often completely rational choice, especially if you are at greater risk). In the past few months there's about 15 people we've been in contact with for some extended time. We limit our shopping, wear masks when it makes sense and social distance as much as is practical. So our contact outside that group is minimal.

I'd be surprised if I did get it, not that I didn't! I'm guessing the media hype is getting though to people (not to say it isn't a serious concern, but the media does often go overboard on anything they decide to cover).

Heck, my DD is a nurse, has been assigned to the COVID floor for months now, and I think (I'll have to ask for an update to be sure), the only case among the workers there was an (singular, one) ICU nurse. DD's in contact with people who have COVID19, 36 hours a week, 12 hours at a stretch, inside, for months now, and hasn't caught it. I think our odds are pretty good if we take precautions.

-ERD50