Coronavirus - Health aspects

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Sunset said:
If you are coughing, just go in to the SS office, the waiting room will clear out pretty quickly once you explain why you are coughing.
Then you will be the next person called :LOL:
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Hey, that's close to my method forgetting to the front of the grocery line - just lean against people and drool. They clear out pretty quick after that.
 
REWahoo said:
Perhaps a bit of encouraging news:



https://www.statesman.com/news/2020...ical-breakthroughrsquo-in-coronavirus-vaccine
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Inovio already has a vaccine in animal testing (with hope for human testing this summer) and a couple of other companies say they're also close. These guys in Utah seem to be taking a different tack by building a 3-D model first. It'll be interesting to see which approach leads to a working vaccine.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/corona...ovio-pharmaceuticals-discovered-drug-testing/
 
I wonder if the Diamond Princess stats are more telling for how the pandemic will roll-out. Closer quarters, so each carrier probably infects more people, but the initial viral load might have been lower than in China (fore knowledge of how bad it was, and knowing asymptomatic people can spread it). And the treatment was probably better (given this outbreak had the advantage of knowing what was learned in the initial outbreak). I haven't seen the latest statistics, but a few days ago it was "more than 350 people were infected", but I haven't heard that any of them have succumb, and it seems like it's been long enough for that. Probably the age profile aboard is also in the range that's supposed to be most deadly. Doesn't the "Diamond" experiment seem to contradict the other statistics?
 
REWahoo said:
The UT in this article refers to The University of Texas.

Good to see evidence of a multi-pronged approach to developing ways to prevent/treat this disease.
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I'm hitting that darned paywall for Statesman article....
 
sengsational said:
I wonder if the Diamond Princess stats are more telling for how the pandemic will roll-out. Closer quarters, so each carrier probably infects more people, but the initial viral load might have been lower than in China (fore knowledge of how bad it was, and knowing asymptomatic people can spread it). And the treatment was probably better (given this outbreak had the advantage of knowing what was learned in the initial outbreak). I haven't seen the latest statistics, but a few days ago it was "more than 350 people were infected", but I haven't heard that any of them have succumb, and it seems like it's been long enough for that. Probably the age profile aboard is also in the range that's supposed to be most deadly. Doesn't the "Diamond" experiment seem to contradict the other statistics?
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It may have been a situation that artificially boosted the infection rate. 621 cases on the ship, not including the two health ministry workers that caught it by going on the ship.
 
sengsational said:
I wonder if the Diamond Princess stats are more telling for how the pandemic will roll-out. Closer quarters, so each carrier probably infects more people, but the initial viral load might have been lower than in China (fore knowledge of how bad it was, and knowing asymptomatic people can spread it). And the treatment was probably better (given this outbreak had the advantage of knowing what was learned in the initial outbreak). I haven't seen the latest statistics, but a few days ago it was "more than 350 people were infected", but I haven't heard that any of them have succumb, and it seems like it's been long enough for that. Probably the age profile aboard is also in the range that's supposed to be most deadly. Doesn't the "Diamond" experiment seem to contradict the other statistics?
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It's up to 621 now testing positive on the Diamond Princess. It's probably too early to project what can be learned from the Diamond Princess - other than Covid-19 is highly contagious. And there are a large percentage of asymptomatic people. That appears clear.

Still unknown is how contagious asymptomatic individuals are. How many of them will "progress" to demonstrate active disease. How Covid-19 spreads. And - your question - the ultimate fatality rate. Early information by the Chinese is that it is not until about day 9 that COVID-19 can worsen - and that's after they became symptomatic (or maybe even when hospitalized depending on how they counted it ?).

There was a listing of Wuhan patients that showed hospitalization and date of death results. For some number it was two weeks to even a month. Among both those who die and those who eventually recover the disease appears to linger - which is why there's such a lag in the resolved statistics (either death or totally recovered). Part of the lag may be that patients who survive (perhaps even with a very mild disease course) may continue to shed virus? The Chinese were not moving even a seemingly now well patient into the totally recovered column until they again tested negative.

Most of the fatalities are among older patients. However, that does not mean that most older patients will die - if, that is, they receive needed medical care. The future fatality rate will depend not only on an individual's immune system nor on the virus itself - but on the availability of that care in a pandemic situation.

So many unknowns. But maybe a month from now there will be some answers or better guesstimates from the Diamond Princess experience.
 
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EveryLady said:
Early information by the Chinese is that it is not until about day 9 that COVID-19 can worsen - and that's after they became symptomatic (or maybe even when hospitalized depending on how they counted it ?).

There was a listing of Wuhan patients that showed hospitalization and date of death results. For some number it was two weeks to even a month.
...
So many unknowns. But maybe a month from now there will be some answers or better guesstimates from the Diamond Princess experience.
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Thanks for that insight.

NW-Bound said:
Two passengers from the Diamond Princess (docked in Yokohama) just died.
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2/621 = 0.3% so far.

I wonder how long it will take before the original victims of this cruise ship 'case study' will be through the ordeal (one way or the other). I guess there are two important values, and I'm not sure anyone knows either. The first is the longest number of days from exposure to either knowing you're going to beat it, or succumbing to it. The the other value is the date when an effective quarantine was established. I'm not sure this latter one was ever done on that ship, but I suppose if everyone gets tested multiple times, and the number doesn't grow, the quarantine is working.
 
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sengsational said:
Thanks for that insight.

2/621 = 0.3% so far.

I wonder how long it will take before the original victims of this cruise ship 'case study' will be through the ordeal (one way or the other). I guess there are two important values, and I'm not sure anyone knows either. The first is the longest number of days from exposure to either knowing you're going to beat it, or succumbing to it. The the other value is the date when an effective quarantine was established. I'm not sure this latter one was ever done on that ship, but I suppose if everyone gets tested multiple times, and the number doesn't grow, the quarantine is working.
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So far, US evacuated 300+, S. Korea 6, HongKong 100+, Taiwan 19. All these countries/places treat this as a serious thread and take extreme precaution. After they are back to their own countries, they will be in quarantine for another 14 days.

Japan, however, thinks that their 443 citizens (today) are good to go back home today.
 
fh2000 said:
So far, US evacuated 300+, S. Korea 6, HongKong 100+, Taiwan 19. All these countries/places treat this as a serious thread and take extreme precaution. After they are back to their own countries, they will be in quarantine for another 14 days.

Japan, however, thinks that their 443 citizens (today) are good to go back home today.
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For the US, 14 of those 300 were infected and brought back on the flight.
 
fh2000 said:
So far, US evacuated 300+, S. Korea 6, HongKong 100+, Taiwan 19. All these countries/places treat this as a serious thread and take extreme precaution. After they are back to their own countries, they will be in quarantine for another 14 days.

Japan, however, thinks that their 443 citizens (today) are good to go back home today.
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That just means that nobody trusts what Japan did except for the Japanese government officials :whistle:
 
Can Coronavirus be contained? - BBC News:

 
Brat said:
Actually 2 people from the cruse ship have died from the virus: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/new...n-cruise-ship-diamond-princess-death-12452830
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Those two people were at very high risk if they contracted the virus, and should have been removed from that environment much earlier. The man had bronchial asthma so very vulnerable, and the woman had a high fever and was not removed from the ship and into medical care in a timely manner.

I think this whole ship "quarantine" event is going to provide many lessons in how not to do things.
 
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Nemo2 said:
Can Coronavirus be contained? - BBC News:

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The US rep was quite well spoken, I thought. When she ended, she said something like "we have to continue to live our lives and we can't take actions that are worse than the virus", and she did quote the 82% mild case number, so not all gloom and doom. But it was clear that she thought it was a foregone conclusion that this virus was going around the world, no matter what.
 
sengsational said:
The US rep was quite well spoken, I thought. When she ended, she said something like "we have to continue to live our lives and we can't take actions that are worse than the virus", and she did quote the 82% mild case number, so not all gloom and doom. But it was clear that she thought it was a foregone conclusion that this virus was going around the world, no matter what.
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Not contained in China. Singapore looks like one big cruise ship. Cases spiking in S Korea and quarantines looming. Japanese cases starting to spike. Free international travel to the rest of the world from all of those places except China. Hard to imagine this will not spread all over the place.
 
sengsational said:
"we have to continue to live our lives and we can't take actions that are worse than the virus"
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That resonated with me too, and one has to wonder if 'hiding' (in its various forms), would/will be the slightest bit beneficial. (Although I wouldn't suggest rushing to the epicentre.)
 
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GTFan said:
It's spreading - 'Coronavirus cases surge in South Korea as first death reported; mayor tells residents to stay indoors':

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...59df72-535c-11ea-b119-4faabac6674f_story.html
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For more detail:

S. Korea reports 1st death from virus, cases soar to 104

Of the 51 new cases in Daegu, 23 patients are believed to be linked to a 61-year-old South Korean woman who was confirmed to be infected Tuesday, the KCDC said.

The country's 31st virus patient is presumed to have infected about 40 people so far as she attended church services in Daegu before testing positive for the virus.
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The country's probable coronavirus "super spreader" was hospitalized at a Daegu hospital from Feb. 7 to Monday. The KCDC said that the patient has had contact with 166 people, who have now placed themselves into self-quarantine.

The Shincheonji Church of Jesus in Daegu, where the 31st patient attended worship services, said in a statement that it had been shut down after about 10 members tested positive for the virus.
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How did the virus get aboard the Diamond Princess? Did it make a port call, or one of the passengers board from China? Wuhan is landlocked...
 
While the exact source of the outbreak on the Diamond Princess is yet to be determined, it is suspected to be linked to a 80-year-old man from Hong Kong who had recently made a brief visit to mainland China.

The man boarded the ship on January 20 in Yokohama before disembarking five days later in Hong Kong, where he tested positive for the virus after seeking medical attention for symptoms including a cough.
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https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...virus-how-diamond-princess-cruise-ship-became
 
Bongleur said:
How did the virus get aboard the Diamond Princess? Did it make a port call, or one of the passengers board from China? Wuhan is landlocked...
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I recall that they took on two passengers from, or had been to China. Those seem to be the sources.
 
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