- Joined
- Apr 14, 2006
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- 23,183
I started a separate thread, but here's a link to a simple infectious disease model you can use.
Make Your Own SIR Model
I built the spreadsheet for Kentucky using this model. It's interesting. Assumes complete transmission. I used doubling every 3 days and 8.5 days to recover.
One of the problems I have is that I think the recovered numbers may not be accurately reported by all states. If I look on the worldometer site previously referenced and look at my state (CT), the total cases equals deaths plus active cases. Surely some of the people infected several weeks ago have recovered, but it doesn't show that.