COVID-19 Shutdown Exit Strategy?

[W2R]

Anything is better than this crap.

Amen! I completely agree.

Even worse, our governor has already told us that Louisiana is NOT one of the lucky states that can start lifting restrictions any time soon. Maybe later, he says, but for now everything will remain in place.

 

[FIREd_2015]

Here is a link to the three phase Federal Guidelines to Opening up America Again that was presented by the White House Task Force earlier today. (My apologies if someone has already posted this)

https://dig.abclocal.go.com/wpvi/pdf/trump-state-reopen-Guidelines.pdf

 

[SecondCor521]

Things I'd like to do when things open back up:

1. Volunteer tax preparation through AARP Tax Aide.
2. Play bridge.
3. Get closer than 6 feet to my 84yo Dad.
4. Get more library books. I'm out, and they're closed.
5. Get my teeth cleaned (not sure if this is suspended or not; I'm due but they haven't called me back to schedule).

I'd also like to see my 18DD be able to finish her senior year in high school and all of those final senior year things (AP tests, Prom, graduation, senior concerts) in person, but that is looking somewhat tenuous right now.

My 25DS and 20DS would also fare better with in-person instruction at their universities. Looks like remote learning for them through the end of the summer term at this point.

All in all, though, I'm appreciative that we're fairly well off. We're all in rural states with low rates of infection and death. Their Mom and I are both retired, so no conflicts with work or worrying about any of that. The kids are young adults so not really much stress about having them at home (other than that they don't like remote learning) - much better to be at this stage in life than have an 8 year old. My Dad's place is essentially a high end low security prison (his word, not mine), but he's safe and very well-cared for, so things could be a lot worse.

 

[Amethyst]

I've been buying athletic shoes defensively for decades. I watch for rare sales on my style and size, and buy a couple of pairs, around $100 a pair. Wish I could wear cheaper shoes, but them's the breaks. There are always shoes in the closet, waiting to be promoted to gym shoes. Gym shoe to street shoe, street shoe to yardwork shoe, yardwork shoe to trash. This way, I get the maximum use out of each pair.

+1 on this. When I was *really* running (Marathons) I would order 3-4 pairs of a shoe that I liked...knowing that they (the manufacturer) would sooner rather than later "enhance" it (ruining what was a great shoe).

 

[Amethyst]

Poor Dad. I've never met anyone who likes being in one of Those Places (my mother's term, and she never would go to one).

Dear, departed Imoldernu used to be a cheerleader for CCRCs, but even he was still in the independent-living villa where you can go out whenever you want.

My Dad's place is essentially a high end low security prison (his word, not mine).

 

[blueskyk]

I am starting to feel this way, too. Staying home all the time is growing old, really fast. Even though I am in a high risk category, I just do not want to spend the rest of my life like this. At some point it might be worth the risk just to get out and DO things and live our lives like we did before the pandemic.



OK, I am not at that point yet where I am willing to risk it, but I might be before too long.

+1
DH and I have discussed this at length and how we might thread the needle of personal risk and public responsibility - a sort of C19 Personal Exit Strategy. We’ve explored the analogy of driving a car and decided on a couple of preliminary parameters for personal re-entry:

1. We will ensure we are in good working order prior to hitting the road

2. We’ll avoid following too closely

3. We’ll do what we can to keep ourselves in good working order with regular maintenance.

4. We won’t venture out after wine.

5. We’ll live while we live. Our paperwork is in order, our wishes thoroughly discussed and well understood and we’ll accept that when the time comes, by whatever means, that’s the way it goes. No one gets a guarantee (except, of course, that it does end.)

 

[gwraigty]

I am becoming convinced the pattern of the 1918 pandemic will be repeated. Second wave was much worse. Hopefully nothing near the scale will be repeated.

I'm not a scientist, but if you Google 1918 pandemic aspirin poisoning, they now think that lethal doses of aspirin had a prominent role to play in the deaths in the second wave.

 

[gwraigty]

In yesterday's press conference, DeWine said that we're going to start a slow, gradual reopening of the Ohio economy starting May 1st. The details are to be determined. He hinted the first to reopen might be the medical areas that have been prohibited from operating. The last to reopen will be mass gatherings like concerts, sports events, etc. Industry leaders have 5 more days from today to submit their plans on how they're going to keep their employees and customers safe.

Our health director didn't appear to be too happy about this. She has been an instrumental force behind the lock downs. She was somewhat emotional yesterday. She rambled on about her mask that had been made for her and talked about her emotional troubles through all this. Then she revealed that her daughter is on the front lines at Riverside Hospital. Oh, that might explain why she'd like to keep Ohio locked down completely until there's a vaccine. I don't think it's professional to let one's personal situation play a large part in decisions that affect over 11M people.

 

[Tiger8693]

Dear, departed Imoldernu....

Did I miss something with Imoldernu?

 

[Ready]

Amen! I completely agree.

Even worse, our governor has already told us that Louisiana is NOT one of the lucky states that can start lifting restrictions any time soon. Maybe later, he says, but for now everything will remain in place.

Given that Louisiana is one of the major hot spots in the US, is this such a bad thing? If nothing else, you will get the benefit of letting other states test things out and see how it works out first.

 

[brewer12345]

Did I miss something with Imoldernu?

Yeah, what happened?

 

[donheff]

Imoldernu’s son reported his death a couple of months ago.

 

[Midpack]

Did I miss something with Imoldernu?

Yeah, what happened?

https://www.early-retirement.org/fo...f-frugal-retirement-62251-26.html#post2374604

 

[Tiger8693]

Wow, I missed that. Very sad to hear.

 

[gauss]

Imoldernu’s son reported his death a couple of months ago.

Ahww. That makes me sad.

 

[Amethyst]

It's funny you mentioned these things. With no gym/treadmill, I decided to try jogging on the beach in the early mornings. We are well south of the public beach, so it's all leased-access (or private home access) and beach stairs. I figured, who would be out at dawn?

Well, it turned out that "early morning" to some people = dawn not even broken yet! If I left the beach access at 0615, jogged for 15 minutes (which is a lot for me - I never did more than 20 minutes on the treadmill) and 15 minutes back, there was no way to socially-distance from Grandma, Grandma, Fido and Muffin, taking up all the reasonably runnable beach space. It was either descend into the surf (with Muffin at my heels), ascend to the difficult dried-out sand, or go earlier.

Now I'm out and back before the sky starts to turn pink. I run with a flashlight. And there are 3 other women, much more serious athletes than I, who run with headlamps. We all try to avoid one another's footprints

Things I will do when the lockdown lifts, that will not give me any risk:

Parks - I love to run and walk and explore nature parks locally.
Beach - I can plonk myself down to read by the water for an afternoon (I also like to park at the beach to run up and down A1A which has an awesome golf cart sidewalk for safe flat asphalt running.

Both of these things I did in before-times with zero interaction with other folks, other than passing by on a path.

 

[Gearhead Jim]

The current restrictions certainly are a PITA (and in the wallet, for many). But the people who talk about how the current death numbers are running well below the estimate, might think about what the numbers would be without the restrictions.


In the early days of the pandemic one doctor said "Anything we do now will be derided as alarmist and over-reacting. When the bodies are piling up, those same actions will be derided as woefully inadequate."

 

[USGrant1962]

It struck me today that these Governors and Mayors that are shutting down their restaurants and other businesses have a real conundrum on their hands. By what criteria will they allow them to re-open? COVID-19 is not going away and will likely become a seasonal flu.

Honestly, in the current environment shutting stuff down is easy compared to deciding when to re-open.

I suspect that in a couple of weeks there will be some huge blowback as hourly workers run out of cash while COVID-19 will not have peaked.

Coming up on a month since OP started this thread, the blowback is starting.

The $2.2T recovery bill has delayed things a bit, but not too much.

 

[Midpack]

Coming up on a month since OP started this thread, the blowback is starting.

The $2.2T recovery bill has delayed things a bit, but not too much.

Yep. There will be more blowback, civil disobedience and reopening on a larger scale - there’s been some already. And we can’t minimize deaths and minimize economic damage so there will be lots of willfully ignorant critics no matter what. It’s going to be messy. Those looking for obvious neat solutions will be disappointed, there aren’t any.

 

[gwraigty]

The current restrictions certainly are a PITA (and in the wallet, for many). But the people who talk about how the current death numbers are running well below the estimate, might think about what the numbers would be without the restrictions.


In the early days of the pandemic one doctor said "Anything we do now will be derided as alarmist and over-reacting. When the bodies are piling up, those same actions will be derided as woefully inadequate."

I didn't say the restrictions shouldn't have been put into place. The new problem is that we're now in an unprecedented economic crisis only 4 or 5 weeks into it. The measures the government put into place to help people through it all haven't been forthcoming for many of them. In effect, the government said they'd prevent people from being able to go to work, but toss money at them to keep them from starving. It sounded great in theory. In practice, many haven't seen one penny of the promised unemployment or programs for small businesses to keep afloat.

Income for 22 MILLION people (and growing every week) is gone. That just counts those who've been able to get their applications filed, which has been exceedingly problematic. The government promises made to the first few million instantly unemployed people from the last month haven't been sufficiently taken care of yet. The nightly world news showed yet another miles-long line of cars waiting for free food, with some having waited in line for as long as 18 hours. Disease or not, people still need their basic needs taken care of. That's not being done sufficiently, with no significant improvements in sight.

This forum is made up of many people who are financially independent who don't anticipate ever having to wait in a charity line to get food. I'm thankful for that! Our household has been impacted to a relatively minor degree by all this. I'm thankful for that!

It's easy to say that others shouldn't be allowed to go back to work when your livelihood/income hasn't been taken away.

I haven't seen any governor suggesting that everything open back up at once and all will be as it was before. Quite the opposite. Our governor has said that when some restrictions are lifted, he'll wait a couple of weeks to assess the impact. New daily cases, hospitalizations, availability of PPE, etc. If all appears to still be manageable, then he'll lift more restrictions. If not, he'll hold it at that level for awhile. Constant monitoring throughout. We may have to wear masks (still only recommended, not mandated). Stores and employers could require masks at their discretion, if it's not mandated statewide. Social distancing will still be required, when it's possible, masks when it's not possible, as in the example he gave of an essential employer who has remained open. That employer literally can't have social distancing and still be able to operate. So they mandated masks for their employees and it's worked well. Those are just some examples of what our state is proposing for the initial stages of opening up. A lot will be up to employers and businesses to determine what works for their situation to keep customers and employees safe. Compliance will be enforced via customers refusing to patronize businesses that aren't taking reasonable precautions. Employees could report employers to their local health department. He said that the elderly and those with underlying health conditions may need to continue to stay home for awhile, but it's up to the individual to decide that.

These measures to reopen the economy, slowly and responsibly, with continuous monitoring, are necessary, unless someone can figure out how to fix the problems that government is having getting money to the unemployed regularly. At any rate, the "helpful" measures were only to last about 3 months anyway. I don't think the politicians ever intended for us to have these restrictions in place to this degree until everyone can be tested or vaccinated. They can't even manage to provide for everyone they threw out of work for even a month so far, much less 3 months, much less consider doing it for 18 months. It'd be laughable if not so tragic.

 

[MuirWannabe]

The unemployment claims issues are real. My DS was furloughed almost immediately at the beginning of this shutdown back in mid March. He applied for unemployment but still hasn’t heard about his claim. He tries to call the Texas office, but it’s an automated response with no option to speak with a human. It only tells him to wait for a letter regarding his claim. There’s another customer service number but it gives a no longer in service busy beep when called. So, he has no idea if/when he will get a dime of unemployment money.

OTOH, I’ve got mixed feelings. Honestly, I’m a little concerned if he were to get the unemployment, with the added stimulus benefit of $600/month, it exceeds anything he could get by working. I don’t want him to give up on finding employment and being a worker. Unfortunately, he could have tendencies that direction.

 

[Gumby]

The unemployment claims issues are real. My DS was furloughed almost immediately at the beginning of this shutdown back in mid March. He applied for unemployment but still hasn’t heard about his claim. He tries to call the Texas office, but it’s an automated response with no option to speak with a human. It only tells him to wait for a letter regarding his claim. There’s another customer service number but it gives a no longer in service busy beep when called. So, he has no idea if/when he will get a dime of unemployment money.

OTOH, I’ve got mixed feelings. Honestly, I’m a little concerned if he were to get the unemployment, with the added stimulus benefit of $600/month, it exceeds anything he could get by working. I don’t want him to give up on finding employment and being a worker. Unfortunately, he could have tendencies that direction.

Our governor gives a press conference every day, which I have found to be very professionally run and quite informative. Two days ago, there were a substantial number of questions about unemployment insurance. They had the commissioner of the department of labor on the conference, as well as his chief deputy in charge of making the system work. Evidently, processing unemployment claims is quite labor intensive and they now have an instant backlog of claims that is more than 100 times the normal amount of claims they get. So they are doing two things: 1) trying to recall retirees and hire new people to process claims and having them all work overtime and 2) trying to automate as much as possible. Unfortunately, the computer system is old and COBOL-based and appears difficult to reprogram to do that. They were hopeful that they could reduce the backlog substantially by the end of this coming week. They promised that the money would be retroactive.

I know it's no solace if you are currently broke and need to buy food right this minute, but it did give me hope that things will improve shortly. I suspect your state is making similar efforts.

 

[Nemo2]

"Perfect solutions of our difficulties are not to be looked for in an imperfect world."


Winston Churchill 1951

 

[MuirWannabe]

Our governor gives a press conference every day, which I have found to be very professionally run and quite informative. Two days ago, there were a substantial number of questions about unemployment insurance. They had the commissioner of the department of labor on the conference, as well as his chief deputy in charge of making the system work. Evidently, processing unemployment claims is quite labor intensive and they now have an instant backlog of claims that is more than 100 times the normal amount of claims they get. So they are doing two things: 1) trying to recall retirees and hire new people to process claims and having them all work overtime and 2) trying to automate as much as possible. Unfortunately, the computer system is old and COBOL-based and appears difficult to reprogram to do that. They were hopeful that they could reduce the backlog substantially by the end of this coming week. They promised that the money would be retroactive.

I know it's no solace if you are currently broke and need to buy food right this minute, but it did give me hope that things will improve shortly. I suspect your state is making similar efforts.

Seems as though it’s a great time to be a government employee. Wish DS could get on with some state or federal position. Wonder how many of the millions of unemployed are from the public sector?

 

[USGrant1962]

Seems as though it’s a great time to be a government employee. Wish DS could get on with some state or federal position. Wonder how many of the millions of unemployed are from the public sector?

Well, unlike the Feds, the States cannot print money - so their day is coming.

States are already begging the Feds for cash just to cover their routine expenses. There is a big moral hazard there - some states SPEND, per capita, 50% more than average. Not sure why the Feds should backstop that.