Storms Marco & Laura Heading for the Gulf States

[Koolau]

I know they had (have) plans to do that but I think they are very reluctant to use it (again) due to the disaster it caused when it was used back in 2005 for Rita... Now they are trying (again) to evacuate by zones before even considering activating the countraflow plan.... The red text below is a quote from the local news on this topic.

The goal is to avoid a scenario like the mass evacuation and chaos ahead of Hurricane Rita in 2005. Millions of people, most outside of evacuation zones, hit the roads, and wound up stuck in standstill traffic for hours.
Ultimately, the mass exodous proved more deadly than the storm itself.

I was in that mass evacuation back in 2005... I think the biggest problems are that it takes many hours to reverse the inbound lanes to outbound and then divert half of the traffic. Then at some point they have to merge it back and that creates a tremendous bottle neck and traffic just stops.

My impression is that the actual (attempted) evacuation for Rita was begun too late (both folks deciding to do so and the authorities reversing the lanes.) Having said that, I could be wrong so YMMV.

 

[Car-Guy]

My impression is that the actual (attempted) evacuation for Rita was begun too late (both folks deciding to do so and the authorities reversing the lanes.) Having said that, I could be wrong so YMMV.

I think that's correct and that is why I said in post 44 that:

The problem with a significant evacuation from a city the size of Houston is time (or not enough notice to go).... It might be able to be done given 3 to 4 days advanced notice and some coordination... Maybe....

 

[RAE]

Latest model runs have the landfall shifting slightly back to the east.........perhaps near the LA/TX border area. That is probably good news for Houston, but of course bad news for folks living near Sabine Pass and areas close to that location. Still a little more than 24 hours before landfall, so shifts in the track could still occur. Hopefully anyone living within 100 miles or so of the LA/TX border area has made preparations already or has evacuated (if necessary). Be sure to check with your local authorities for evacuation notices and storm watches/warnings. Be safe please!

 

[audreyh1]

Oh no! Laura seems to be going through that dreaded rapid intensification! 90 to 105 mph between 1 and 4am. Fingers crossed it doesn’t keep it up.

 

[Dtail]

Oh no! Laura seems to be going through that dreaded rapid intensification! 90 to 105 mph between 1 and 4am. Fingers crossed it doesn’t keep it up.

Yeah, think the latest forecast has it at a Cat 3 at landfall, possibly at 120 mph.

 

[sheehs1]

Praying for everyone in Laura's path. I am on the East Coast and my news says a possible Cat 4 at landfall. I hope they are wrong but there isn't much to get in her way.

 

[RAE]

Yeah, I believe it is now expected to be Cat. 4. Not good news at all. I am a little surprised that the Nat. Hurricane Center was still predicting a Cat. 2 hurricane as recently as 36 hours ago, when several of the models (like the Euro) have been basically projecting a Cat. 4 landfall for the last several days. The Gulf of Mexico is very warm, and once a storm gets rolling out there at this time of year, there is little to stop it from intensifying rapidly. I hope people along that stretch of coast had enough time to evacuate.

 

[Dawg52]

Yeah, I believe it is now expected to be Cat. 4. Not good news at all. I am a little surprised that the Nat. Hurricane Center was still predicting a Cat. 2 hurricane as recently as 36 hours ago, when several of the models (like the Euro) have been basically projecting a Cat. 4 landfall for the last several days. The Gulf of Mexico is very warm, and once a storm gets rolling out there at this time of year, there is little to stop it from intensifying rapidly. I hope people along that stretch of coast had enough time to evacuate.

+1. Cat. 4 is not good at all. Hopefully it backs off a bit before landfall.

 

[Dreamer]

Thinking of all of you in that general area and praying that Laura backs off from hurricane levels.

 

[SpinDoctorTX]

Trying to have a significant evacuation from Houston is a nightmare in the best case.... We tried it once (during Rita) and gave up after about 8 hours and only moving a few miles on the freeways... Houston has only grown (a lot) since then and I'm not aware of anything that has been done that would help with the evacuations. In this case with Laura and with the current projected track, you can really only evacuate in few directions, North, Northwest, West and "maybe" Southwest... And if you go North, the storm may follow you a long way. The problem with a significant evacuation from a city the size of Houston is time (or not enough notice to go).... It might be able to be done given 3 to 4 days advanced notice and some coordination... Maybe.... It's now only 36 to 40 hours until Laura makes landfall at it's current forward speed. It's getting to late for many if an evacuation was called for.

If folks would follow the evacuation zones "it may help some", but I've never seen that work very well.

We had just moved to The Woodlands when Rita came knocking. My company sent everyone home, took down the local server farm & activated one overseas. We had no terrible effects in our neighborhood- just a bunch of wind/ rain & we lost power for a few days. My company had several plants (along the coast & to LA) that flooded then call force majeure for about 6 mos. The traffic at 45 & Sawdust Rd. was unbelievable- one SAIA truck moved only 2 car lengths in over an hour. We stayed home as we were about 80 miles from the coast. I had many friends who tried to evacuate & got stuck in horrid traffic- some over 24 hours & some of them were of course out of gas by then.

Don't they turn all the Interstates into one-way-out? That would double the lanes dedicated to a quick exit.

YMMV

They do plan for contraflow now, but mainly they get evacuees out in stages. Contraflow requires a lot of cops/ workers with orange barrels etc. to be around to make sure cars don't try to go south on 45.

+1. Cat. 4 is not good at all. Hopefully it backs off a bit before landfall.

She's still expected to be cat 4 by landfall... Our weather folks still say it'll be turning north soon. I guess we'll see.

 

[JoeWras]

Woah. Just saw the latest satellite. That's explosive strengthening.

My favorite forecasters (and NHC) say that Houston should be on the less damaging side. The same forecasters are concerned about significant wind impacts to Memphis.

Please monitor your local forecasts carefully, even if you are inland.

 

[REWahoo]

Woah. Just saw the latest satellite. That's explosive strengthening.

My favorite forecasters (and NHC) say that Houston should be on the less damaging side. The same forecasters are concerned about significant wind impacts to Memphis.

Please monitor your local forecasts carefully, even if you are inland.

We have friends who live 140 miles north of where Laura is expected to come on shore. They are very concerned since this storm is following a similar path Rita followed 15 years ago causing significant wind damage. Several houses on their street were destroyed by large falling trees and they were without power for almost two weeks.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

Up to 125mph, Still Cat 3. Stay Safe Y'All.

 

[JoeWras]

NWS is using words like "Unsurvivable storm surge" and "catastrophic damage."

I'm sometimes hard on them for naming storms that are just blobs on the satellite -- one reason we're getting more names than in the past when satellites didn't exist or were low resolution.

However, they do NOT fool around with using these kinds of words in warnings. If they use hard language, they mean it.

 

[W2R]

So concerned for Texans and west Louisianians in Laura's path, especially now that it is expected to be a Cat 4 at landfall! Eeek.

We are experiencing an outer band right now, which is NOTHING compared with Laura's full strength, of course. We will not experience that here. Right now it is dark, rainy, with gusty breezes here in New Orleans. The sky looks so menacing. This is a powerful hurricane and I cannot even imagine the devastation that could ensue closer to the Louisiana/Texas line. My heart is with all of those in Laura's path. Take care.

 

[audreyh1]

Lake Charles is very vulnerable to storm surge.

 

[Freedom2021]

Oh my goodness. A storm surge and a possible Cat 4, I was not expecting that.
We dodged the bullet in Florida - now it is time to pray for Tx/La.

Just hoping the term "un-survivable" will not turn out to be true.
This is really looking scary.

 

[RAE]

Lake Charles is very vulnerable to storm surge.

Yes, and the peak of the storm surge is going to arrive tonight around 1:00 am or so tonight, they say. High tide for that area is at 1:14 am, which makes things even worse. I just read that this is undoubtedly going to be the strongest hurricane ever to hit this part of Louisiana since records have been kept, going back to 1851. Some meteorologists on a weather forum I follow are now saying there is a fair chance Laura makes landfall as a Cat. 5 hurricane, similar to Michael in 2018 (which hit Mexico Beach, FL). It is a Cat. 4 already, and still strengthening as it approaches the coast.

All we can do is hope that folks who live in this area were able to evacuate. You do not want to hunker down and try to survive something this strong.

 

[Out of Steam]

They do plan for contraflow now, but mainly they get evacuees out in stages. Contraflow requires a lot of cops/ workers with orange barrels etc. to be around to make sure cars don't try to go south on 45.

Virginia has installed gates on all the eastbound ramps on I-64 from near Richmond to Norfolk/Virginia Beach to make contraflow easier.

 

[Dtail]

Yeah, I believe it is now expected to be Cat. 4. Not good news at all. I am a little surprised that the Nat. Hurricane Center was still predicting a Cat. 2 hurricane as recently as 36 hours ago, when several of the models (like the Euro) have been basically projecting a Cat. 4 landfall for the last several days. The Gulf of Mexico is very warm, and once a storm gets rolling out there at this time of year, there is little to stop it from intensifying rapidly. I hope people along that stretch of coast had enough time to evacuate.

As was mentioned by another poster, the hurricane intensity predictions have not been as accurate as the tracking.
The rapid intensification of these hurricanes, once they are in open gulf waters has changed over the last few years. Similar to Hurricane Michael.

 

[Out of Steam]

Yes, and the peak of the storm surge is going to arrive tonight around 1:00 am or so tonight, they say. High tide for that area is at 1:14 am, which makes things even worse. I just read that this is undoubtedly going to be the strongest hurricane ever to hit this part of Louisiana since records have been kept, going back to 1851.

15 feet of storm surge is a stunning number. In that part of the country, the surge could go many miles inland.

 

[Alan]

Like SpindoctorTx we were also living in The Woodlands when Rita came calling. I had to stay at work to shutdown the IT network then drive to our daughter’s house in Austin. It appeared we had plenty of time to evacuate but after 3 hours on the road we had only gone 10 miles so we returned home and rode out the storm.

When Ike hit in 2008 we were living in Louisiana but our son was in The Woodlands. As with Rita he left a week ahead of landfall with a small group from his company to establish the backup server operations in Irving, Tx.

As always my thoughts go out to everyone in the path of the storm

 

[Car-Guy]

We had just moved to The Woodlands when Rita came knocking. My company sent everyone home, took down the local server farm & activated one overseas. We had no terrible effects in our neighborhood- just a bunch of wind/ rain & we lost power for a few days.

We tried to get out and as I said early, we sat on the freeway for ~8 hours and only went 2 miles. (Turned around and went home) We got lucky and Rita "Ziged" rather than "Zaged" in the last several hours and Houston missed a direct hit. 50 to 75 miles makes a huge difference in reduced impact, if you are on the west side of these storms.

The traffic at 45 & Sawdust Rd. was unbelievable- one SAIA truck moved only 2 car lengths in over an hour. We stayed home as we were about 80 miles from the coast. I had many friends who tried to evacuate & got stuck in horrid traffic- some over 24 hours & some of them were of course out of gas by then.

I was a good 40 miles further south than that and traffic was dead stopped for hours and hours and hours... I literally could have walked (heck crawled) much faster than the traffic was moving. One thing I did learn, a car can idle for a long time and not burn much gas.... I mean after 8 hours of sitting and idling with the AC on, I don't think I used a 1/4 tank of gas, if that. Lot's of cars were over heating since they weren't moving and it was about 100 degrees (f) outside.

She's still expected to be cat 4 by landfall... Our weather folks still say it'll be turning north soon. I guess we'll see.

Cat 4 would be very bad.... The highest hurricane winds I've ever been in was something around 110 to 115mph and that was unbelievable to me. I've been in 75 and 80mph winds many times and that seems like nothing once you have been in 100+.

 

[JoeWras]

Cat 4 would be very bad.... The highest hurricane winds I've ever been in was something around 110 to 115mph and that was unbelievable to me. I've been in 75 and 80mph winds many times and that seems like nothing once you have been in 100+.

I experienced Fran (1996) in Raleigh. Sustained winds were "only" about 45-50, with a few gusts to hurricane strength (75). The bulk of it lasted about 6 hours with a background noise of wind, and every minute or so the sound of a gust, and then subsequent sounds of trees cracking and smashing something. We really couldn't see anything without power and pitch black. We could hear various animals outside crying in distress. On every gust I dug my nails into the chair handles. And about every 15 minutes, I'd go to the old fashioned barometer, give it a tap and watch the needle drop.

It was a night of pure terror. I can NOT imagine going through a sustained hurricane.

My prayers out to all in Laura's way.

 

[RunningBum]

I experienced Fran (1996) in Raleigh. Sustained winds were "only" about 45-50, with a few gusts to hurricane strength (75). The bulk of it lasted about 6 hours with a background noise of wind, and every minute or so the sound of a gust, and then subsequent sounds of trees cracking and smashing something. We really couldn't see anything without power and pitch black. We could hear various animals outside crying in distress. On every gust I dug my nails into the chair handles. And about every 15 minutes, I'd go to the old fashioned barometer, give it a tap and watch the needle drop.

It was a night of pure terror. I can NOT imagine going through a sustained hurricane.

My prayers out to all in Laura's way.

I was in Cary, adjacent to Raleigh, for Fran. I went outside in the middle of it because I heard a really loud crashing sound and thought a tree might've come down on my neighbor's house. I ran out with a flashlight, and heard trees cracking and falling all around me, took a quick look at her house and didn't see anything obvious, and sprinted back. Very, very, scary. For some reason I always thought the sustained winds were hurricane level (> 75mph), but all accounts confirm that you're right, it was just some gusts that reached that high. I can't imagine being out in a much much worse storm.