Post Vaccination Behavior

[audreyh1]

Thanks for the link to that Israeli report.

Information gathered by Israeli healthcare provider Maccabi shows that only six out of every 10,000 people got infected with COVID-19 one week after receiving their second Pfizer dose. By 22 days after full vaccination, no infections were recorded.

Pfizer says its vaccine’s effectiveness starts one week after the second dose is given.

That doesn’t change the Pfizer statement of 95% effectiveness reached after one week from the second dose. It does strongly suggest that the effectiveness is even higher later.

Pfizer may revise their advice. Those are impressive results from Israel. It’s going to take months to tease out a lot of these details worldwide.

 

[explanade]

I think they're measuring antibody titers.

But they need to determine how long antibody titers remain high before they subside.

 

[Montecfo]

JPM: Pandemic effectively over in 40-70 days

Investment house JPMorgan analysts predict the pandemic will be effectively over in 40 to 70 days. They cite the effect of vaccines, hurt immunity seasonality and other factors.

Planning to travel this summer? Better get cracking...

https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...y-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

 

[audreyh1]

I think they're measuring antibody titers.

But they need to determine how long antibody titers remain high before they subside.

If you are talking about the Pfizer results, I believe the 95% effectiveness is the result of how many people compared to the no vaccine control group contracted Covid-19 during the phase 3 trials.

RESULTS
A total of 43,548 participants underwent randomization, of whom 43,448 received injections: 21,720 with BNT162b2 and 21,728 with placebo. There were 8 cases of Covid-19 with onset at least 7 days after the second dose among participants assigned to receive BNT162b2 and 162 cases among those assigned to placebo; BNT162b2 was 95% effective in preventing Covid-19 (95% credible interval, 90.3 to 97.6). Similar vaccine efficacy (generally 90 to 100%) was observed across subgroups defined by age, sex, race, ethnicity, baseline body-mass index, and the presence of coexisting conditions. Among 10 cases of severe Covid-19 with onset after the first dose, 9 occurred in placebo recipients and 1 in a BNT162b2 recipient. The safety profile of BNT162b2 was characterized by short-term, mild-to-moderate pain at the injection site, fatigue, and headache. The incidence of serious adverse events was low and was similar in the vaccine and placebo groups.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

 

[unclemick]

We canceled regular FLA week last Dec and canceled Texas Gulf visit a week before our first shot (surprise opening). Now with first shot done(Feb) and second booked for March we said yes to Family reunion in August.

Fingers crossed. Will still mask if required.

Heh heh heh -

 

[MuirWannabe]

Investment house JPMorgan analysts predict the pandemic will be effectively over in 40 to 70 days. They cite the effect of vaccines, hurt immunity seasonality and other factors.



Planning to travel this summer? Better get cracking...



https://www.barrons.com/articles/th...y-april-j-p-morgan-says-heres-why-51613163599

Love it. I believe this also. The health experts and Americans were oblivious to the coming pandemic before it hit. Now I think they’re oblivious to the pending end of it. It’ll be effectively over for Americans by this summer. (I hope [emoji4])

 

[explanade]

No I'm talking about concentrations of neutralizing antibodies

 

[audreyh1]

No I'm talking about concentrations of neutralizing antibodies

Who is measuring what to determine what?

 

[GenXguy]

If you are talking about the Pfizer results, I believe the 95% effectiveness is the result of how many people compared to the no vaccine control group contracted Covid-19 during the phase 3 trials.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2034577

I understand the 95% effectiveness is against symptomatic infection, so efficacy against asymptomatic infection would not necessarily be the same. Some other posts referred to "infection", but I wonder if they are really referring to "symptomatic infection."

 

[explanade]

Who is measuring what to determine what?

That's the thing, they don't regularly measure it though during the earlier trials they did and compared it to convalescent plasma, that is plasma containing antibodies from recovered covid patients.


Lately, they are still collecting plasma from people who've been vaccinated to conduct lab tests vs. the different variants.

That usually shows that plasma from vaccinations has greater antibodies than plasma from recovered people, so they tend to be more effective against these variants.

 

[sengsational]

I understand the 95% effectiveness is against symptomatic infection, so efficacy against asymptomatic infection would not necessarily be the same. Some other posts referred to "infection", but I wonder if they are really referring to "symptomatic infection."

I agree that "effectiveness", without specifying against what, is not very helpful for determining behavior.

The most quoted effectiveness is against symptomatic disease. I'm less concerned about that than I am with the more problematic levels (severe disease and/or disease that doesn't resolve quickly).

What we will learn over time is the effectiveness of specific vaccines (and of recovery from disease) against reinfection. Without data that supports reinfection that causes severe or lingering disease, I'll be doing anything they let me do. Wearing a mask to be polite, if the culture of the situation requires it. I think life is too short to worry too very much about people that decided against vaccination for themselves when the chances I will be transmitting high concentrations without knowing it is probably pretty low. As with any communicable disease, I'm going to quarantine if I sense a problem, but by the time my vaccination is effective (I'm in the last group), I'll be as back to normal as I can get, given no data supporting serious/lingering reinfection.

 

[Chuckanut]

There is also a theory, that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may be all that is needed if we give the body 4-6 months to fully develop immunity.

I have no idea if this holds water, much less is worth studying. But, I imagine that as statics are accumulated over the next year, we will see what happens. The big negative, even if it is true, is that economic costs of waiting 4-6 more months is probably many time that of paying for hundreds of millions and billions of 2nd doses to speed up the process.

I do remember that many 'experts' were surprised when they saw how effective the 1st dose was in sharply reducing new infections after the 12th day. The drop off was dramatic compared to the placebo people. Again, how long will that last? And what about the variants?

Ancient Curse - "May you live in interesting times."

 

[rodi]

DH is going for his first shot today. (I don't qualify yet).

He is also making tentative plans for a road trip that he has delayed several times... to see his 94 year old mom, as well as siblings (one with terminal cancer.)

In the summer we considered him doing the road trip during the fall... but the numbers kept getting worse and worse.

He'll stay with my cousins who will both be vaccinated by the time he stays with them. He'll stay with his sister, who's been vaccinated. And he'll get a hotel rather than stay with his younger brother near his mom's... because that brother won't be vaccinated. He'll stay with the brother with cancer - because his cancer DX has qualified him for the vaccination.

He'll mask and avoid indoor dining on the trip.

It is unsure whether he'll be allowed to see his mom in person - or just have a visit through the window. He's ok either way. (His mom is vaccinated - but the facility is still locked down to visitors.)

 

[explanade]

There is also a theory, that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may be all that is needed if we give the body 4-6 months to fully develop immunity.

I have no idea if this holds water, much less is worth studying. But, I imagine that as statics are accumulated over the next year, we will see what happens. The big negative, even if it is true, is that economic costs of waiting 4-6 more months is probably many time that of paying for hundreds of millions and billions of 2nd doses to speed up the process.

I do remember that many 'experts' were surprised when they saw how effective the 1st dose was in sharply reducing new infections after the 12th day. The drop off was dramatic compared to the placebo people. Again, how long will that last? And what about the variants?

Ancient Curse - "May you live in interesting times."

Pfizer and BioNTech have consistently said two doses, in the time period they tested.

UK is experimenting by delaying the second dose, in an effort to vaccinate more people early on.

 

[MichaelB]

There is considerable research showing the first dose of Pfizer and Moderna build high levels of resistance, which has led to calls to increase first doses and postpone second. The math makes sense, it would lead to a faster decline in infections, which would benefit all. The vaccine manufacturers, though, cannot agree with this approach because they did not test for it. Their recommendations need to remain based on their testing data.

 

[Lsbcal]

Pfizer and BioNTech have consistently said two doses, in the time period they tested.

UK is experimenting by delaying the second dose, in an effort to vaccinate more people early on.

I'd be pissed off if my 2nd Moderna vaccine dose was postponed. I looked it up and sure enough there is a big UK experiment on its citizens:

https://www.statnews.com/2021/01/04/britain-takes-a-gamble-with-covid-19-vaccines-upping-the-stakes-for-the-rest-of-us/

One virologist's quote:

“My concern, as a virologist, is that if you wanted to make a vaccine-resistant strain, what you would do is to build a cohort of partially immunized individuals in the teeth of a highly prevalent viral infection,” Bieniasz told STAT. Even rolling out the vaccine at all when there is so much transmission occurring is far from ideal, he said, suggesting it would have been safer to beat down the amount of virus in circulation before beginning the vaccine deployment.

“You are essentially maximizing the opportunity for the virus to learn about the human immune system. Learn about antibodies. Learn how to evade them,” he said.

 

[Dtail]

Once we get our shots, we plan to resume more normal travel, even if there is masking required.

 

[Badger]

We got our second Moderna vaccine a couple of hours ago. I don't have any reactions other than a little ache. I had it given in the left shoulder the same arm as before. I figure it usually hurts anyway due to arthritis so it doesn't make any difference. I just hope I don't have any of the other reactions that I have heard about.
I will continue with masks, social distancing, etc. for the foreseeable future out of courtesy for others and an example to encourage. No need to be a jackass.



Cheers!

 

[Born2BRetd]

My husband, son, son's girlfriend and I were all lucky enough to receive leftover vaccines last night! The SuperCenter had a large number of no shows for some reason and just needed bodies for their shots.

My daughter previously received a vaccine and is due for her second vaccination.

I woke up this morning and felt this feeling of complete relief and a sense of optimism that things are turning around. We will wait another six weeks but then will go out and about again (with masks of course). I knew the last few months had taken a toll on my mood but didn't realize how much until this morning.

 

[mystang52]

I got my second shot last week. Had a lollapalooza of a reaction a few hours later - lightheadedness that became big time dizziness. I was fine by the next day.
For the first time since the lockdown, this past Saturday I went for a run on the local bike path without wearing a mask. Previously I would run with the mask down, and whenever I passed someone I would cover up. Then it dawned on me that other people on the bike path don't know I was vaccinated, so after that one run I went back to wearing a mask solely to put others at ease.

 

[disneysteve]

Then it dawned on me that other people on the bike path don't know I was vaccinated, so after that one run I went back to wearing a mask solely to put others at ease.

Plus getting vaccinated doesn’t prevent you from catching COVID and transmitting it to others.

 

[rodi]

My husband, son, son's girlfriend and I were all lucky enough to receive leftover vaccines last night! The SuperCenter had a large number of no shows for some reason and just needed bodies for their shots.

My daughter previously received a vaccine and is due for her second vaccination.

I woke up this morning and felt this feeling of complete relief and a sense of optimism that things are turning around. We will wait another six weeks but then will go out and about again (with masks of course). I knew the last few months had taken a toll on my mood but didn't realize how much until this morning.

Just curious - was the the Chula Vista site (I think Petco was closed yesterday). My sister was volunteering there yesterday.

My husband got his first shot (with an appointment) at the Grossmont super site yesterday.

 

[tb001]

Just curious - was the the Chula Vista site (I think Petco was closed yesterday). My sister was volunteering there yesterday.

My husband got his first shot (with an appointment) at the Grossmont super site yesterday.

Small world. We’re volunteering at the CV site on Thursday. Do you know if she was able to be vaccinated?

 

[rodi]

Small world. We’re volunteering at the CV site on Thursday. Do you know if she was able to be vaccinated?

She got her first vax 2 weeks ago. The word has gotten out about volunteers getting vaccinated... She's been volunteering 2-3 days/week since the site opened... and couldn't sign up for next shift till late next week. All the slots were full. LOL. Have fun volunteering. My sister enjoys it.

 

[tb001]

She got her first vax 2 weeks ago. The word has gotten out about volunteers getting vaccinated... She's been volunteering 2-3 days/week since the site opened... and couldn't sign up for next shift till late next week. All the slots were full. LOL. Have fun volunteering. My sister enjoys it.

No kidding!! We signed up to volunteer thinking once vaccinated we would continue for a while, but there are no open slots anywhere!