Electric Vehicles - Models Discussion

[ERD50]

OK. BS was too strong, and the Blazer was not the place to make the argument. I would think people would acknowledge the difference between a physical recall to a dealership and a painless OTA update at home. ...

Oh absolutely. It's one of the reasons I think it's great that Tesla is out there in the market, they are pushing the envelope in ways the legacy car makers aren't.

An OTA update vs dealer visit is certainly a plus. Heck, even the option for a "download a file to thumb drive, insert thumb drive in car, and go through some steps to update" routine, like many other products, would be way better than having to visit a dealer. These legacy car makers need to get on the stick!

-ERD50

 

[aja8888]

Oh absolutely. It's one of the reasons I think it's great that Tesla is out there in the market, they are pushing the envelope in ways the legacy car makers aren't.

An OTA update vs dealer visit is certainly a plus. Heck, even the option for a "download a file to thumb drive, insert thumb drive in car, and go through some steps to update" routine, like many other products, would be way better than having to visit a dealer. These legacy car makers need to get on the stick!

-ERD50

The legacy franchised dealer model governed under most state laws is in the way of progress, sad to say.

But, one must remember there are roughly 260,000,000 + cars on the road in the U.S. that need to be sold and serviced at dealer/repair locations. That can't change overnight.

 

[RetMD21]

Interesting TV commercial for GM over the holidays....a new EUV Bolt (it's coming), a Trax (small crossover), and a GMC pickup trio as the basis for the ad. I don't see the point, but, then again, maybe I am too old to figure it out.

Yeah, come back in 2025 and we'll have 3 new models. I guess they are asking people to be patient. If the Ioniq 2 comes out in 2025 and is in the 20,000 Euro range as projected it will give the Bolt some stiff competition.

 

[aja8888]

Yeah, come back in 2025 and we'll have 3 new models. I guess they are asking people to be patient. If the Ioniq 2 comes out in 2025 and is in the 20,000 Euro range as projected it will give the Bolt some stiff competition.

Yes, stiff competition should be coming from all directions with EV's. It would be nice to see more Chinese cars coming this way too.

 

[Chuckanut]

Hybrids may help, but legacy auto is all at a disadvantage in varying degrees WRT EVs. I get no joy out of the serious bind GM, Ford, VW, Toyota and all legacy automakers and their unions are in - suppliers, dealers, lobbyists, etc. It may be a painful road ahead, but I hope not as bad as I fear. Ford and VW have acknowledged the issues, GM and Toyota's PR are still in denial (they know full well).

One of the things mentioned in the recent biography of Musk is his belief that building the factory to build the Tesla automobiles was more difficult than building the car itself. In his mind the real challenge is to build the machines that build the machine.

 

[Midpack]

One of the things mentioned in the recent biography of Musk is his belief that building the factory to build the Tesla automobiles was more difficult than building the car itself. In his mind the real challenge is to build the machines that build the machine.

Indeed, he called the Model 3 scale up beginning in 2017 “production hell” and he slept in the factory for months along with many others. The early Model 3’s build quality was inferior and far more variable than legacy auto.

I would like to think legacy automakers have some production manufacturing expertise that Tesla did not have initially. They’ll have obstacles too, but it won’t be as bad as it was for Tesla who didn’t have any past experience at scale. Legacy autos challenge is a radically different vehicle design, greater efficiency, and legacy suppliers, legacy dealers, legacy unions (I’m not against unions) all understandably trying to survive an uncertain transition. Status quo casualties are inevitable, actual (job/career) casualties tbd.

 

[RetMD21]

In addition to all of the other issues GM is facing future CAFE fines for failing to meet fleet fuel economy standards. Toyota is pivoting to more hybrids and Ford can do the same. GM is stuck.

 

[explanade]

Volvo EX30 may be the first Chinese-made car, let alone EV, to be sold in the US.

They will also make in Belgium and if there’s enough demand, Volvo could make at a plant it already has in the US but it would take 18 months.

However, a 27% tariff on cars made in China may be imposed. Volvo would have to decide whether to pass it along or absorb it.

 

[ncbill]

Hybrids may help, but legacy auto is all at a disadvantage in varying degrees WRT EVs. I get no joy out of the serious bind GM, Ford, VW, Toyota and all legacy automakers and their unions are in - suppliers, dealers, lobbyists, etc. It may be a painful road ahead, but I hope not as bad as I fear. Ford and VW have acknowledged the issues, GM and Toyota's PR are still in denial (they know full well). At least all the Teslas sold in the US have the highest US content (it's a little surprising how far down the list the "big 3" are). BYD and other Chinese EVs are poised to take more market share worldwide - I hope the US and others fare well or better! Hyundai and Polestar seem to making better progress among legacy auto, and maybe Porsche/Audi but not VW?

[I wasn't that impressed with the Ford Mach E, but I did think the F-150 Lightning looked great on paper. I guess some quality/service issues, dealer price gouging and MSRP increases have hurt them?]

https://www.cars.com/articles/2023-...ndex-which-cars-are-the-most-american-467465/

Toyota's doing just fine with its hybrid-centric approach.

And will be the first one to sell EVs with solid-state electrolyte battery packs here in the USA, though probably not until around 2030.

And any EV purchaser should make sure it can work with Tesla's Supercharger network because, sadly, that's currently the only reliable Level 3 charging network.

 

[RetMD21]

I wonder if the fact that they won't have NACS compatibility until 2025 will hurt US automakers EV sales in 2024?

 

[aja8888]

I wonder if the fact that they won't have NACS compatibility until 2025 will hurt US automakers EV sales in 2024?

For us that have non Tesla EVs, one can buy a $50+ cost cable adapter and use Tesla destination chargers nationwide. No big deal here. I find those chargers at hotels and other parts of a travel route. The agreements between GM, Ford, etc will make superchargers available, at least that's what I have read.

 

[Midpack]

Toyota's doing just fine with its hybrid-centric approach.

And will be the first one to sell EVs with solid-state electrolyte battery packs here in the USA, though probably not until around 2030. [A potential game changer, but not guaranteed profitable/scalable yet. There have been more EV proclamations from legacy auto that have NOT come true, than have over the past few years]

And any EV purchaser should make sure it can work with Tesla's Supercharger network because, sadly, that's currently the only reliable Level 3 charging network.

It will all depend on the future rates of EV adoption, so far growth is robust in 2023 despite what some legacy auto PR depts have put out there. While the rate of growth may have slowed some, it's still far higher than other market segments.

Fortunately average EV sales prices have reached some parity with comparable ICE vehicles, but ICE vehicles still have a much larger addressable (low end) market. EV early adopters have to reach an equilibrium someday, we might even be close now. For growth to continue many years into the future, the EV addressable market has to grow - IOW even less expensive but compelling EVs. If Tesla is able to scale up a Model 2 or whatever the $25K car turns out to be, that will put further pressure on legacy auto - but that is a couple years away it seems. China is already making less expensive (potentially world class?) EVs, they are trying to break into Europe now, but tough sledding so far?

Lower prices (Tesla) and tax credits/incentives have played a role, they're unpredictable from year to year in the US at least. The 2024 tax credit picture is very much up in the air, and I don't believe Tesla can afford to reduce prices further to offset credits if they are reduced/eliminated (not yet resolved despite several reports).

We're in the early innings of BEV adoption, no one can predict with certainty how the future will compare with the last 10 years.

Global passenger EV sales grew 60% from 6.5 million units in 2021 to 10.5 million in 2022, according to the report. The sector is on track to sell more than 14 million EVs for 2023, a mark that would represent a 34% year-over-year growth.

If 2023 EV sales do indeed breach that (record) 14 million mark, it would indicate a massive growth in the sector, growth that is still below that which the sector experienced between 2021 and 2022.

The bulk of these sales in 2022 came from Europe and China, which collectively were responsible for 84% of global EV sales. The U.S. was the next-largest market, with a 12% global market share.

Electric cars, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), had a 4% share of the global car market in 2020, a 14% share in 2022 and are expected to have an 18% share in 2023.

This comes as ICE vehicle sales, after peaking in 2017 at 86 million units, have begun, gradually, to shrink, according to BloombergNEF's report. Sales of ICE vehicles have fallen on average 6% every year since 2019; excluding hybrids, only 59 million ICE vehicles were sold in 2022, a near 30% dip from that 2017 peak.

The growth in EVs, however, is not evenly distributed around the world, according to the report. In 2022, China accounted for 60% of all global EV sales, according to the IEA. A quarter of the country's new car sales were electric.

The IEA said in its report that more than half of electric cars on the roads worldwide are in China.

Europe is another leader in electrification; 21.6% of new car registrations in 2022 were electric vehicles, according to data from the European Environment Agency, an increase from the 1.74 million registrations in 2021.

In the U.S., EV sales are on track to hit 9% of all new car purchases for 2023, according to data from Atlas Public Policy, up from 5.8% in 2022. The share of EVs sold in the U.S. in 2021, according to Cox Automotive, was 3.2%.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-behind-electric-vehicle-adoption/ar-AA1l2LFk

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary

 

[Midpack]

For us that have non Tesla EVs, one can buy a $50+ cost cable adapter and use Tesla destination chargers nationwide. No big deal here. I find those chargers at hotels and other parts of a travel route. The agreements between GM, Ford, etc will make superchargers available, at least that's what I have read.

Hopefully readers note this distinction. Destination chargers (hotels, restaurants, grocery stores, etc.) are not at all the same as superchargers. You can't just buy an adapter and use a Tesla supercharger yet, and Tesla superchargers will be made available slowly over time beginning in 2024, other makes will not have access to the entire network any time soon. GM and Ford will be among the first to get limited supercharger access, other makes will come along over the next few years. It's an evolutionary change, not overnight.

 

[ncbill]

It will all depend on the future rates of EV adoption, so far growth is robust in 2023 despite what some legacy auto PR depts have put out there. While the rate of growth may have slowed some, it's still far higher than other market segments.

Fortunately average EV sales prices have reached some parity with comparable ICE vehicles, but ICE vehicles still have a much larger addressable (low end) market. Early adopters have to reach an equilibrium someday, we might be there. For growth to continue many years into the future, the EV addressable market has to grow - IOW even less expensive but compelling EVs. If Tesla is able to scale up a Model 2 or whatever the $25K car turns out to be, that will put further pressure on legacy auto. China is already making less expensive (potentially world class?) EVs.

Lower prices (Tesla) and tax credits/incentives have played a role, they're unpredictable from year to year in the US at least. The 2024 tax credit picture is very much up in the air, and I don't believe Tesla can afford to reduce prices further to offset credits if they are reduced/eliminated (not yet resolved despite several reports).

We're in the early innings of BEV adoption, no one can predict with certainty how the future will compare with the last 10 years.


https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mar...-behind-electric-vehicle-adoption/ar-AA1l2LFk

https://www.iea.org/reports/global-ev-outlook-2023/executive-summary

You're ignoring hybrids.

Pure EV sales are slowing in favor of those.

More OEMs will have to switch to hybrid powertrains to meet increasing fuel economy standards.

With battery packs just a fraction of the size of those in pure EVs hybrids are much cheaper to produce, so they're currently the "good enough" solution.

 

[Midpack]

You're ignoring hybrids.

Pure EV sales are slowing in favor of those.

More OEMs will have to switch to hybrid powertrains to meet increasing fuel economy standards.

With battery packs just a fraction of the size of those in pure EVs hybrids are much cheaper to produce, so they're currently the "good enough" solution.

+1. EV sales are coming at the expense of ICE vehicles that was my point. If you'd rather, BEV-HEV-PHEV sales are coming at the expense of ICE vehicles, I am perfectly fine with that.

I am not ignoring hybrids, they are a bridge product, and uptake has increased dramatically after stalling from 2013 thru 2020. Toyota does seem to be the leader in hybrid drive trains, and that will serve them well for the time being. There are certainly customers who are more comfortable with hybrids vs EVs. I know, we've had four hybrids...2 Toyota, Honda & Hyundai.

Toyota and the other legacy automakers are canibalizing their own ICE sales with every hybrid they sell at least in part. Not net growth. Not so with Tesla.

But what do you think the renewed interest in hybrids stems from? EV sales are projected at 34% for 2023, not exactly slow. But hybrid sales have grown even faster in recent years, and they will continue to grow for the foreseeable future it seems. How will depend on affordable/compelling EVs, affordable/compelling HEV/PHEVs, prices and tax incentives - not entirely known.

 

[aja8888]

Hopefully readers note this distinction. Destination chargers (hotels, restaurants, grocery stores, etc.) are not at all the same as superchargers. You can't just buy an adapter and use a Tesla supercharger yet, and Tesla superchargers will be made available slowly over time beginning in 2024, other makes will not have access to the entire network any time soon. GM and Ford will be among the first to get limited supercharger access, other makes will come along over the next few years. It's an evolutionary change, not overnight.

This is really not a big deal (for me, anyway) as Tesla superchargers are generally full of Tesla's when I see them along a travel route.

I have had great luck with "other" charge networks like EVgo, Chargepoint, EA, etc and have been on a few out of state trips (Missouri and back) with my Bolt with absolutely no issues finding charge locations.

Actually, I have only used my Tesla adapter once in 6,600 miles of driving my Bolt, and that was at our local mall to just try it and make sure it worked. My Bolt will accept DC fast charging but only at 48 Amps so it really doesn't matter what chargers I use.

I charge at home 95% of the time and if I really need to take a long driving trip (took 3 this year over 4,000 miles per trip), I'll use my old ICE car.

I love the Bolt for local use, but it was bought as a test to see if I really want to have an EV for the long run. And the long run for me is probably not very long at my age. Actually, I'm planning on giving the Bolt to my daughter and her family as they rarely take long trips and have a new Hyundai Tucson for that use.

I have my sights leaning toward a Ford Maverick small PU for the next vehicle if i can find the right one.

 

[explanade]

Only hybrid I would consider would be something like the RAV4 Prime which has a 40 mile AER so you can operate it like an EV for day to day use.

But that car carried a hefty premium a couple of years ago when I was in the market. One dealer in Oakland CA put a $50k dealer markup. Yes that is not a typo.

So far nobody else has put out a similar PHEV with a big enough battery for 40 miles AER.

Even then, I think it's going to be less and less likely that I do long road trips over time.

I have a bunch of places all near the West Coast on my bucket list but probably won't get to them as I still prioritize overseas travel.

I thought someone posted data showing that hybrids have more repair issues on average than EV and maybe even ICE. Kind of surprising because two of the leading manufacturers of hybrids are Toyota and Honda, which have among the best overall reliability record.

 

[Zathras]

Only hybrid I would consider would be something like the RAV4 Prime which has a 40 mile AER so you can operate it like an EV for day to day use.

But that car carried a hefty premium a couple of years ago when I was in the market. One dealer in Oakland CA put a $50k dealer markup. Yes that is not a typo.

So far nobody else has put out a similar PHEV with a big enough battery for 40 miles AER.

Even then, I think it's going to be less and less likely that I do long road trips over time.

I have a bunch of places all near the West Coast on my bucket list but probably won't get to them as I still prioritize overseas travel.

I thought someone posted data showing that hybrids have more repair issues on average than EV and maybe even ICE. Kind of surprising because two of the leading manufacturers of hybrids are Toyota and Honda, which have among the best overall reliability record.

I am still hoping GM brings back the Volt!
I saw that article. Was in ‘repairs’ or ‘complaints’?

I know cars with complicated screen interfaces get more complaints.

 

[Chuckanut]

Only hybrid I would consider would be something like the RAV4 Prime which has a 40 mile AER so you can operate it like an EV for day to day use.

But that car carried a hefty premium a couple of years ago when I was in the market. One dealer in Oakland CA put a $50k dealer markup. Yes that is not a typo.

So far nobody else has put out a similar PHEV with a big enough battery for 40 miles AER.

Even then, I think it's going to be less and less likely that I do long road trips over time.

I have a bunch of places all near the West Coast on my bucket list but probably won't get to them as I still prioritize overseas travel.

I thought someone posted data showing that hybrids have more repair issues on average than EV and maybe even ICE. Kind of surprising because two of the leading manufacturers of hybrids are Toyota and Honda, which have among the best overall reliability record.

According to Consumer Report the RAV4 Prime has a great repair record. The regular hybrid record is good, but not great. Models and years can vary even with Toyota. The Prime is not worth the extra cost over the regular hybrid, IMO. If they can get the Prime extra cost down that will be another story.

 

[RetMD21]

For us that have non TEVs, one can buy a $50+ cost cable adapter and use Tesla destination chargers nationwide. No big deal here. I find those chargers at hotels and other parts of a travel route. The agreements between GM, Ford, etc will make superchargers available, at least that's what I have read.

I understand that it will be more than just an adapter. Tesla's will route to superchargers, precondition the battery, and autocharge your designated payment method. It is unclear what will be compatible with the older non-Teslas.

Dr Know It All predicts that the vehicles with the obsolete CCS connectors will quickly become undesirable:

 

[audreyh1]

A Better Route Planner can help with routing through chargers. Of course it is even better to have such routing and navigation built into the vehicle which knows at vehicle state at any given moment and can update critical info in real time.

However I use A Better Route Planner for my initial trip planning way ahead - just to see various route options, where the chargers are, distances between chargers, etc. It’s a good first approximation but the Tesla itself is much more accurate when we start driving.

Yeah the whole precondition for charging thing is sweet as well as real-time monitoring or actual energy use versus predicted once you are in motion. Also just plug into an charger and no messing with any app to charge, that is so slick. Everything is very streamlined.

 

[REWahoo]

With respect to my Bolt, I don't really care about the Tesla superchargers and won't in the future. 99% of my charging is at home!.

+1, but in my case it isn't 99%, it is 100%.

I've never charged my Bolt anywhere other than at home and don't ever see the need to use a commercial charger. We put ~750 miles per month on the car and rarely drive more than 100 miles (two or three trips into the city) before hooking up to the charger in my garage.

 

[aja8888]

+1, but in my case it isn't 99%, it is 100%.

I've never charged my Bolt anywhere other than at home and don't ever see the need to use a commercial charger. We put ~750 miles per month on the car and rarely drive more than 100 miles (two or three trips into the city) before hooking up to the charger in my garage.

I think you will find this true of the vast majority of people who own EVs. Besides a couple of free charging sessions at our mall, I used a couple of chargers on the round trips I made to jasper, Mo.

But going forward, it's all home charging for me at ~ $0.04/kWh with my TOD rate from Entergy. With the affordable cost of the Bolt, and the $7,500 tax credit, this car becomes very cheap transportation.

A few articles I have read recently were about the cost of remote charging with operators starting to gouge users with rates as high as $0.50/kWh. I'll bet we will see more of that happening making using an EV for a road trip more costly than an ICE car using gasoline.

 

[RetMD21]

I love the Bolt for local use, but it was bought as a test to see if I really want to have an EV for the long run. And the long run for me is probably not very long at my age. Actually, I'm planning on giving the Bolt to my daughter and her family as they rarely take long trips and have a new Hyundai Tucson for that use.

I have my sights leaning toward a Ford Maverick small PU for the next vehicle if i can find the right one.

Yeah when I was thinking of getting a Bolt my plan was to have another vehicle as well.

It will be interesting to see if the new Toyota 4X does better than its predecessor the bz4x. So far, only released in China and very cheap there

https://electrek.co/2023/12/26/toyota-launches-bozhi-4x-electric-suv-25k/

 

[explanade]

I understand that it will be more than just an adapter. Tesla's will route to superchargers, precondition the battery, and autocharge your designated payment method. It is unclear what will be compatible with the older non-Teslas.

Dr Know It All predicts that the vehicles with the obsolete CCS connectors will quickly become undesirable:

I still would like to know what percentage of EVs are regularly charged at these commercial chargers and how often.

How many time on average will they go to these chargers?

But sure, on paper, when you buy, you want to have the most-widely supported plug on your expensive vehicle purchase.