2020 Investment Performance Thread

[sengsational]

Down 14.1% YTD, all-in, money chimp spend adjusted on a 67% equity allocation target. Rebalancing trigger reached on several asset classes, most notably the 'bond' allocation (stable value fund), where it's line flew off the top of the screen



I don't feel too horrible about it. I still am less than confident that it's done trouncing us, so I've not decided if I'll rebalance now, or wait.

 

[Andre1969]

Here's my latest numbers...

+0.23% as of 1/31/2020.
-6.78% as of 2/28/2020.
-21.45% as of 3/31/2020.

I've recovered a bit, from my worst day in March, which was the 23rd. I was down 30.47% that day.

 

[steelyman]

Retirement portfolio return through Q1 2020: -15.63% vs benchmark VTHRX (Vanguard Target 2030) -14.76%. Allocation follows VTHRX (~68/32).

 

[braumeister]

At month end, down 9.4% YTD, still at 43/57 asset allocation.
My nominal 50/50 calls for rebalancing when it gets more than 7.5% away from that, so nearly there but not quite yet.

 

[REWahoo]

-6.4% YTD 1Q. AA was 32/42/26 BC (before coronavirus). Currently 30/43/27 with ongoing rebalancing courtesy the management folks at Wellesley and Wellington.

 

[doneat54]

-11.43% YDT, 50/50 AA. Up from -16% YTD 2 weeks ago. Wobbly, but headed in the right direction.

So far.

 

[target2019]

February 2020

-4.36% Total Portfolio Value YTD Change (50/45/5 target)

-3.93% American Funds American Balanced (50/50) Class R-6 RLBGX

+3.87% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral VBTLX
-8.23% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral VTSAX

-1.19% Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Admiral VWIAX
-4.98% Vanguard Wellington Fund Admiral VWENX

Cousins Wellesley and Wellington both are negative for the year, no doubt hiding from the market ills of the last week of February 2020.

The week was timed by nefarious forces to persuade me that money is greater than time. But I followed my plan and made the final walk to minicorp parking lot.

March 2020

-12.54% Total Portfolio Value YTD Change (50/45/5 target)

-11.58% American Funds American Balanced (50/50) Class R-6 RLBGX

+3.27% Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund Admiral VBTLX
-20.87% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund Admiral VTSAX

-7.41% Vanguard Wellesley Income Fund Admiral VWIAX
-13.79% Vanguard Wellington Fund Admiral VWENX

The weather outside is Sunny with Clouds. Strong winds today after a week of rain.

 

[Golden sunsets]

YTD 3/31 Down 11.59%

Didn't really want to look. I've been avoiding it. If I look at the percentage only and not the dollars, it's not as bad as I feared.

 

[MichaelB]

-6.4% YTD 1Q. AA was 32/42/26 BC (before coronavirus). Currently 30/43/27 with ongoing rebalancing courtesy the management folks at Wellesley and Wellington.

Pretty good, considering the circumstances.

We’re down 8.4% so far.

 

[Clone]

Down 5.5%. Started the year at 99% equities, dropped to 16% equities, now at 56%.

 

[jazz4cash]

Ballpark -16% for 1Q20. Too lazy to perform a detailed calculation. Let my AA drift from 70/30 target through rebalance bands and even moved 2 yrs expenses out of equities so AA is now 55/15/30. Portfolio is down by enough to buy a house and I’m not freakin out? Or maybe numb? Or maybe just don’t matter since Dow is -4% right now.

 

[kcowan]

NW down 6.8% YTD. 64/36

 

[2177V]

My 2020 YTD investments are approximately +14%. I reallocated my 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries in 2019 after the yield curve inverted. To understand the basis for my decision, here is the total performance of VUSUX LT treasuries:

2007 +9.8% Beginning of the last severe Bear market
2008 +24% Bear market (treasuries rises during a bear market)
2009 -12.9% End Bear Market
2019 +14.8% Yield Curve inverted
2020 YTD +14% Bear Market

I was fully aware of the 2007, 2008, 2009 numbers. Note that in 2009 was a -12.9% return because of a "flight from quality" when investors started pulling money from treasuries and back into equities. Here is a link that explains flight to quality and flight from quality:

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...quality-416873

Why did treasuries did so well in 2019 when interest rates are so low? Answer: There are two components for the total return of a treasury bond fund: Price plus interest rates. Even if you get 0% on the interest rates, you can still get a high price return if there is a demand for the treasuries.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019, I understood that the yields are declining for long term treasuries. When the yields are declining, that means the prices are rising because "yield and price move in opposite direction". This is why I reallocated my entire 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries bonds because there was little risk of interest rates rising and there is little risk of a flight from quality...so I went "all in".

I am now slowing buying equities at depressed prices. I expect to be +30% after the market fully recover. This is how you can make money during a bear market using treasuries.

 

[kgtest]

Jan +1.12%
Feb -6.18% due to COVID-19 fear
Mar -18.25% COVID-19 triggers 3 circuit breakers and 2TT+ in stimulus. This time IS different.

 

[kgtest]

My 2020 YTD investments are approximately +14%. I reallocated my 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries in 2019 after the yield curve inverted. To understand the basis for my decision, here is the total performance of VUSUX LT treasuries:

2007 +9.8% Beginning of the last severe Bear market
2008 +24% Bear market (treasuries rises during a bear market)
2009 -12.9% End Bear Market
2019 +14.8% Yield Curve inverted
2020 YTD +14% Bear Market

I was fully aware of the 2007, 2008, 2009 numbers. Note that in 2009 was a -12.9% return because of a "flight from quality" when investors started pulling money from treasuries and back into equities. Here is a link that explains flight to quality and flight from quality:

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-t...quality-416873

Why did treasuries did so well in 2019 when interest rates are so low? Answer: There are two components for the total return of a treasury bond fund: Price plus interest rates. Even if you get 0% on the interest rates, you can still get a high price return if there is a demand for the treasuries.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019, I understood that the yields are declining for long term treasuries. When the yields are declining, that means the prices are rising because "yield and price move in opposite direction". This is why I reallocated my entire 60/40 portfolio to 100% treasuries bonds because there was little risk of interest rates rising and there is little risk of a flight from quality...so I went "all in".

I am now slowing buying equities at depressed prices. I expect to be +30% after the market fully recover. This is how you can make money during a bear market using treasuries.

Interesting, impeccable market timing. But did you know the cause would be a global pandemic?

 

[2177V]

Interesting, impeccable market timing. But did you know the cause would be a global pandemic?

I did not know. Neither did anyone else. People should study stock market crashes...

2007 crash: Nobody knew about Lehman Brothers and the mortgage derivatives
2000 crash: Nobody knew about the dot com bubble.
1987 crash: Nobody knew about the computer stock market programs that would trigger the Black Monday crash
1929 crash: Nobody knew about the huge speculation by people borrowing money to invest in the stock market. (heavy borrowers actually jumped out the window)

In most cases, there was a huge bull market prior to the crash which everybody were making money. I simply did not believe a bull market would last forever and the Corona Virus was simply the pin that popped the bubble. If you really believed that the record bull market was going to last forever, then you should have been investing aggressively prior to 2007, 2000, 1987 and 1929.

When the yield curve inverted in 2019. that was the time for me to walk away. Like Kenny Roger's song: You have to know when to hold them, know when to fold them and know when to walk away. I walked away when the stock market was making record highs and the duration of the bull market was also making records. Most successful gamblers walk away from the table because they are smart enough to quit while they are ahead.

In 2030 or so, after this bear market and the subsequent bull market, will people still remain aggressively invested after the bull markets breaks records in market highs? Even after the yield curve inverts? Generally when the yield curve inverts, some investors are buying treasuries to protect themselves. This is because treasuries are the only asset class that rises in value during a bear market. Here is a link that explains this.

https://obliviousinvestor.com/what-happens-to-bonds-in-a-stock-market-crash/

 

[DrRoy]

Mar 31 was exactly 3 yrs of RE for me. I noticed that as of that date, having sold ~$400K of equities over the 3 yrs for spending, rebalancing, and about 3 points of AA reduction, I was still ahead of my NW from 3 yrs ago. That did not seem too bad.

 

[atmsmshr]

Up slightly compared with 1 January balance for retirement funds, and that includes taking out 6 months of cash this year transferred to credit union

 

[atmsmshr]

In my opinion, equities are still overpriced. There are about 30 stocks that most funds are crowding into that are over-weighting the indices. A large portion of the S&P 500 will be totally wiped out. Over the next few months you will see many companies announcing reverse stock splits to avoid de-listing. When that happens, the short sellers start pounding those stocks down to zero.

My concern also. New month means new cycle of bills coming due. IMHO some rents, mortgages, auto loans will not be paid. Landlords and businesses slip on mortgage payments. Squeeze on small banks, and potentially some credit unions. More layoffs as mid sized companies burn out their cash reserves. Moody's and S&P ratings agencies downgrade credit from AAA to junk.

Hang on - its going to be a dramatic quarter.

PS - Dearly hope I am wrong.

 

[Eucerin]

As of yesterday market closing, we are down 10%. AA: 45/55

 

[MBAustin]

Down 13.6%. AA was 55/45, now very close to 50/50 as I have not rebalanced (although Wellesley and Wellington have done some of that for us).

 

[REWahoo]

...I have not rebalanced (although Wellesley and Wellington have done some of that for us).

Most definitely.

Having a the majority of our portfolio invested in Wellesley and Wellington has relieved me almost entirely of the burden of rebalancing. I would almost certainly be agonizing over the decision of when and how much, not to mention fighting the deer-in-the-headlights syndrome. As it is I've done nothing and our AA has varied less than two percentage points.

 

[airforce1]

Per TSP:

Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 03/31/2020 is -8.89%.

I have now reallocated to 90% G Fund, 10% C Fund and won't change until I see majority of countries exhibit flattening CoVID-19 growth curves.

Currently, China is not honest with their CoVID-19 numbers as people suspected and I believe this pandemic will be the straw on the camel's back and break their large shadow banking economy.

 

[tmm99]

-12.63% with almost 60% equity (well, now it's about 58% equity)

 

[Perryinva]

You mean equities?