I have no crystal ball and your size 13 shoe concern seems justified. It’s also a fact that today is 100 days into 2020, my domestic bond index is at record high prices, my domestic stock index NAV is what it was on June 9th, and the overall 50/50 portfolio is down -7.6% for the year. Window ledges have no appeal to me.
Said differently, I don’t expect 2020 to be a great year for stocks (nor was 2018) and might be awful. But 2020 might be another great year for bond fund total returns. Why would I miss out on half of my portfolio enjoying a boomlet by moving to 100% cash? We pays our money and takes our choice, so good luck to you and to me.
-7.6% at the end of Q1 seems relatively tame so far, given the devastation and where I thought it would be. I am even more curious to see on 12/31 how the portfolio fared, so that I can then do nothing again and get excited to see how it does one year after that.