Dire situation in New York State

[atmsmshr]

One of the things I am hoping for is that there is a meaningful immunity from reinfection by covid-19.

With no immunity, or only a few months of immunity, there will be waves of this disease that sweep the world over time until a vaccine is developed and deployed.

 

[eytonxav]

I doubt it because this virus isn't a significant pathogen to kill itself.

Most pandemics end when there is not a sufficient number of susceptible people to infect (eg herd immunity), and I do not see any evidence that this one would be different.

 

[cathy63]

One of the things I am hoping for is that there is a meaningful immunity from reinfection by covid-19.

With no immunity, or only a few months of immunity, there will be waves of this disease that sweep the world over time until a vaccine is developed and deployed.

If there's no immunity in those who recover, is it even possible to create a vaccine?

 

[Boho]

A long lasting drug that latches on to the harmful substance and changes or destroys it and has nothing to do with the immune system is good enough, isn't it? By trying to create a vaccine rather than a drug treatment are we wasting time and costing lives? Would it be easier to create an effective drug therapy?

 

[Gumby]

A long lasting drug that latches on to the harmful substance and changes or destroys it and has nothing to do with the immune system is good enough, isn't it? By trying to create a vaccine rather than a drug treatment are we wasting time and costing lives? Would it be easier to create an effective drug therapy?

I think there are people working on both approaches.

 

[NameRedacted]

It is my understanding that the required percentage for herd immunity is described by the equation x = 1- (1/Ro), where Ro is the initial reproduction number (i.e. - the average number of new people each person infects absent countermeasures). Published estimates of Ro for COVID-19 range from 2.2 to 5.7. If it is the lower number, then you would need about 55% of the population to have become immune either by acquired immunity due to infection and recovery (if that works) or by vaccination => 1- (1/2.2) = 0.545. If it is the higher number, you would need about 82% for herd immunity to protect you.

In his last couple of sessions, Governor Cuomo has stated that with the social distancing rules they have in effect the Ro for New York State is currently 0.9. That's why the experts are so loathe to lift them.

 

[Winemaker]

Boston homeless shelter tested 397 associated with shelter, 146 confirmed cases, all asymptomatic.

https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

 

[REWahoo]

Boston homeless shelter tested 397 associated with shelter, 146 confirmed cases, all asymptomatic.

https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

From the above:

BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.

The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

Yikes.

 

[Just_Steve]

If there's no immunity in those who recover, is it even possible to create a vaccine?

If not vaccine could be a viral prophylactic similar to the ones now out for HIV.

 

[DAYDREAMER]

From the above:



Yikes.

The # of people showing no signs of illness, yet test positive has me concerned the test is not accurate.

 

[aiken]

From the above:



Yikes.

I see this as potentially very good news. It supports the theory that there may be a significant number of infected people that are asymptomatic or have a mild illness....which might mean the mortality rate is significantly less.

 

[sheehs1]

The # of people showing no signs of illness, yet test positive has me concerned the test is not accurate.

Me too.

 

[pacergal]

The # of people showing no signs of illness, yet test positive has me concerned the test is not accurate.

My concern as well.
Although I have read many reports of positive test results in asymptomatic people.
So, thats a problem either way--you have folks told they have it and really don't, so they may be less likely to follow social distancing or out there spreading the disease and those not knowing they are spreading the disease because they don't feel sick.

 

[MichaelB]

From the above:

BOSTON — The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now “actively looking into” results from universal COVID-19 testing at Pine Street Inn homeless shelter.

The broad-scale testing took place at the shelter in Boston’s South End a week and a half ago because of a small cluster of cases there.

Of the 397 people tested, 146 people tested positive. Not a single one had any symptoms.

Yikes.

Yikes for sure. This is one reason this virus is so dangerous.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

Im equally concerned that im reading online that providers as saying they are getting a ton of negative tests on folks that CLEARLY have it, proven by symptoms and xray. So if it looks like a covid they are treating as covid and completely ignoring the test results. When i say a ton, they are floating around rates like 40pct of symptomatic ppl are testing negative in some areas but they DO have it based on clinical observations and testing. SO are they not swabbing deep enough, having a ton of symptoms based on a super low viral load, are the tests completely bogus, or what?

 

[audreyh1]

The # of people showing no signs of illness, yet test positive has me concerned the test is not accurate.

My concern as well.
Although I have read many reports of positive test results in asymptomatic people.
So, thats a problem either way--you have folks told they have it and really don't, so they may be less likely to follow social distancing or out there spreading the disease and those not knowing they are spreading the disease because they don't feel sick.

Personally I think that there actually are a large number of asymptomatic folks, and the tests are a problem with false negatives making someone think they don’t have it when they do.

 

[audreyh1]

Im equally concerned that im reading online that providers as saying they are getting a ton of negative tests on folks that CLEARLY have it, proven by symptoms and xray. So if it looks like a covid they are treating as covid and completely ignoring the test results. When i say a ton, they are floating around rates like 40pct of symptomatic ppl are testing negative in some areas but they DO have it based on clinical observations and testing. SO are they not swabbing deep enough, having a ton of symptoms based on a super low viral load, are the tests completely bogus, or what?

At some point China switched to CT lung scans to determine Covid-19 infection.

 

[Ronstar]

Im equally concerned that im reading online that providers as saying they are getting a ton of negative tests on folks that CLEARLY have it, proven by symptoms and xray. So if it looks like a covid they are treating as covid and completely ignoring the test results. When i say a ton, they are floating around rates like 40pct of symptomatic ppl are testing negative in some areas but they DO have it based on clinical observations and testing. SO are they not swabbing deep enough, having a ton of symptoms based on a super low viral load, are the tests completely bogus, or what?

Not swabbing deep enough could be the reason for the negatives per this Dr. He claims that when people are being tested that the virus has moved out of the nose/ throat area.

 

[Boho]

This is the reason I wouldn't take the nonsteroidal whatnot nasal spray that I was prescribed about 10 years ago for chronic nasal congestion/enlarged turbinate/crooked nose that obstructs right nostril. AFAIK, all such meds that you inhale to reduce congestion increase your chances of catching something. If you mess with something that results in decreased mucous production, you can't defend against airborne pathogens as well. Even saline nasal spray does this.

Maybe people who use saline nasal spray or other decongestant for slight to moderate congestion should stop until the virus is under control.

 

[EastWest Gal]

A long lasting drug that latches on to the harmful substance and changes or destroys it and has nothing to do with the immune system is good enough, isn't it? By trying to create a vaccine rather than a drug treatment are we wasting time and costing lives? Would it be easier to create an effective drug therapy?

On my Epocrates app on my phone, one page yesterday stated there are currently 590 clinical trials on COVID-19. 47 of these are vaccine trials. The rest are treatment trials. Everything from drug treatments, immune modulators, IV immunoglobulin, monoclonal antibodies, convalescent serum, nitric oxide (improves ventilation), and so forth.

No one is wasting time. Around the world, studies are occurring at a furious pace. In the long run, the most powerful tool we will ever have is an effective vaccine. Vaccination eradicated smallpox, nearly eradicated polio, and could eradicate measles. We cannot eradicate coronaviruses because they can jump species. But we also need effective medication.

 

[GravitySucks]

Some good news today as it sounds like hospitals are opening up to "elective procedures" in parts of Upstate. Daily deaths under 500 again - not wonderful but better than the 700+ a day that was the norm.
Bad news side, sounds like Erie county is still on the left side of the curve.

 

[Music Lover]

I see this as potentially very good news. It supports the theory that there may be a significant number of infected people that are asymptomatic or have a mild illness....which might mean the mortality rate is significantly less.

Exactly. And the recent Stanford University study supports that theory.

 

[Music Lover]

Yikes for sure. This is one reason this virus is so dangerous.

The other scenario is that 146 people in that group tested positive and had no symptoms because the virus is not as dangerous as originally believed.

 

[ls99]

Boston homeless shelter tested 397 associated with shelter, 146 confirmed cases, all asymptomatic.

https://www.boston25news.com/news/c...-homeless-shelter/Z253TFBO6RG4HCUAARBO4YWO64/

At one time most homeless were underweight, lately https://scitechdaily.com/obesity-affects-one-third-of-us-homeless/ they seem obese.

Maybe eating crappy food and testing positive to covid yet be asymptomatic has something in common?

 

[stepford]

Grim milestone in New York. 0.1% of the state's population has now died from COVID-19 and 1.3% of the population has tested positive. Extrapolating those numbers to the whole USA (which I admit is not necessarily a valid prediction) one gets 330,000 fatalities and 4.3M cases.