Dire situation in New York State

[MichaelB]

The other scenario is that 146 people in that group tested positive and had no symptoms because the virus is not as dangerous as originally believed.

The single biggest danger IMO is believing COVID is not as dangerous as initially assumed.

 

[Tiger8693]

Grim milestone in New York. 0.1% of the state's population has now died from COVID-19 and 1.3% of the population has tested positive. Extrapolating those numbers to the whole USA (which I admit is not necessarily a valid prediction) one gets 330,000 fatalities and 4.3M cases.

That is a huge leap, considering 95% of the US is not nearly as densely poulated as NY. I imagine the bulk of those deaths were NYC/5 Burroughs areas

 

[audreyh1]

Not swabbing deep enough could be the reason for the negatives per this Dr. He claims that when people are being tested that the virus has moved out of the nose/ throat area.

I thought Gates et al. had determined that you didn't need a deep swab and that customers could do their own swabbing just inside the nose.

 

[travelover]

I thought Gates et al. had determined that you didn't need a deep swab and that customers could do their own swabbing just inside the nose.

Yes, Gates has stated that several times, yet the long swabs seem to be a bottle neck - not sure why.

 

[stepford]

That is a huge leap, considering 95% of the US is not nearly as densely populated as NY. I imagine the bulk of those deaths were NYC/5 Burroughs areas

I agree in the short term, but unless a vaccine is found might we not eventually expect this sort of fatality rate to prevail widely? I put less stock in the rate of positive tests since this relates to testing criteria which will change over time and region. But fatality rates are less ambiguous. The New York results seem to say that when the disease is widespread at least 0.1% will die of it.

 

[Tiger8693]

I agree in the short term, but unless a vaccine is found might we not eventually expect this sort of fatality rate to prevail widely? I put less stock in the rate of positive tests since this relates to testing criteria which will change over time and region. But fatality rates are less ambiguous. The New York results seem to say that when the disease is widespread at least 0.1% will die of it.

I think that leaves out countless numbers who get it, don;t have symptoms or illness, and are never tested, so no, I don't think we can say that with any certainty.

 

[stepford]

I think that leaves out countless numbers who get it, don;t have symptoms or illness, and are never tested, so no, I don't think we can say that with any certainty.

I agree for the infection rate, but I don't really see how those without symptoms or illness affect the fatality count. Unless the fatality rate in New York is unusually high because of overwhelmed healthcare facilities that 0.1% seems like a frighteningly robust statistic.

 

[NameRedacted]

That is a huge leap, considering 95% of the US is not nearly as densely poulated as NY. I imagine the bulk of those deaths were NYC/5 Burroughs areas

On the press conference from today the breakdown for deaths by region was:



NYC 64%
Long Island 21%
Rockland, Westchester and other counties round NYC 8%
Rest of State (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany and a bunch of cows) 7%


I did a quick calculation and found that in NYC the percentage of total population that died is 0.148%




In the county I live in - in upstate NY the rate is only 0.0116 %

 

[Music Lover]

The single biggest danger IMO is believing COVID is not as dangerous as initially assumed.

I didn't say it isn't dangerous, but that study along with the Stanford University study are very good signs.

 

[Gumby]

On the press conference from today the breakdown for deaths by region was:



NYC 64%
Long Island 21%
Rockland, Westchester and other counties round NYC 8%
Rest of State (Buffalo, Syracuse, Rochester, Albany and a bunch of cows) 7%


I did a quick calculation and found that in NYC the percentage of total population that died is 0.148%




In the county I live in - in upstate NY the rate is only 0.0116 %

For any state, you can use this site
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ The 8th column shows deaths per 1 million population. Just divided by 10,000 and it will give you the percentage. Thus, as of today, NY has 1004 per million or 0.1004%. CT, right next door, has 397 per million or 0.0397%. Hawaii has 7 per million or 0.0007%.

 

[Just_Steve]

Phase 1 antibody test results are 13.9% positive. Don't have a link it was just reported in press conference. Of the 13.9% 3.6% upstate, perfect argument for regional opening o the state.

 

[Toocold]

Phase 1 antibody test results are 13.9% positive. Don't have a link it was just reported in press conference. Of the 13.9% 3.6% upstate, perfect argument for regional opening o the state.

In the preliminary report, NYC had 22.6% infection rate, so they are about half what they need to hit the herd immunity rate of 40%. One potential implication is that the next wave for NYC will not be as bad as this wave.

 

[ivinsfan]

In the preliminary report, NYC had 22.6% infection rate, so they are about half what they need to hit the herd immunity rate of 40%. One potential implication is that the next wave for NYC will not be as bad as this wave.

Here's the problem with that 40% number some neighborhoods were very hard hit and some had almost nothing..so the virtually untouched ones have no protection going forward.

 

[Aerides]

New antibody testing results shared today for NYS/NYC:

So in the area of the highest population density, highest number of cases and highest number of deaths, the antibody rate is 21.2%. While this is probably higher than prior estimates, I think it also it implies that other areas are probably far behind these metrics (more like that rest of state number or lower):

 

[Brat]

I concur with ivisfan: Assuming that the test results are typical of the urban vs rural infection rate what this implies is that rural areas will be hit later. Right now the best we can hope for are treatments to prevent death and without a vaccine, until herd immunity exists in all communities, those who haven't had the virus will contract it.

Actually, because this virus is so contagious, it will circulate through populations world wide.

I am impressed with the quality of the leadership in New York state.

 

[NameRedacted]

To add to all the comments about the infection rate, the good news is that the number of people with anti-bodies is higher than most people expected which implies that the death rate is lower than people thought.


The bad news is that they tested people who were out and about grocery shopping. High risk people would be more inclined to stay home and I suspect the anti-body rate would be far lower in those people.

 

[Fermion]

After the curve is flattened, just get down to the probabilities.

After age 50 your chance of dying to heart attack is about 1 in 1000

Cancer, it is around 6 per 1000

IF Covid is about 4 per 1000, then just add it to the long list of stuff trying to kill us and get on with living.

 

[cathy63]

In the preliminary report, NYC had 22.6% infection rate, so they are about half what they need to hit the herd immunity rate of 40%. One potential implication is that the next wave for NYC will not be as bad as this wave.

Where did that 40% number come from? Everything I have seen is that the R0 for Covid-19 is around 2.5 to 3 so we need at least 60% to 66% before we'd have herd immunity. Is there some new evidence for the much lower number?

 

[Just_Steve]

After the curve is flattened, just get down to the probabilities.

After age 50 your chance of dying to heart attack is about 1 in 1000

Cancer, it is around 6 per 1000

IF Covid is about 4 per 1000, then just add it to the long list of stuff trying to kill us and get on with living.

I could not agree more.

 

[audreyh1]

In the preliminary report, NYC had 22.6% infection rate, so they are about half what they need to hit the herd immunity rate of 40%. One potential implication is that the next wave for NYC will not be as bad as this wave.

Where did 40% come from? Much higher than that would be needed for herd immunity.

 

[MichaelB]

After the curve is flattened, just get down to the probabilities.

After age 50 your chance of dying to heart attack is about 1 in 1000

Cancer, it is around 6 per 1000

IF Covid is about 4 per 1000, then just add it to the long list of stuff trying to kill us and get on with living.

What is the source for these numbers?

 

[misanman]

Nicotine Treatment?

Here's another strange one. I saw today that they noticed in France that people who smoked were not as likely to come down with the virus. So apparently they are going to try nicotine patches to see if that could be a valid treatment. Probably runs counter to some of the suppositions about smoking leading to covid complications for the Chinese.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/can-nicotine-patches-help-you-avoid-covid-19/ar-BB134L0B

 

[Winemaker]

Here's another strange one. I saw today that they noticed in France that people who smoked were not as likely to come down with the virus. So apparently they are going to try nicotine patches to see if that could be a valid treatment. Probably runs counter to some of the suppositions about smoking leading to covid complications for the Chinese.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/can-nicotine-patches-help-you-avoid-covid-19/ar-BB134L0B

Nicotine is a common natural "chemical " that is used as an organic insecticide. Just boil some old cigar butts in water, filter and spray on your plants. I digress.

 

[MRG]

Here's another strange one. I saw today that they noticed in France that people who smoked were not as likely to come down with the virus. So apparently they are going to try nicotine patches to see if that could be a valid treatment. Probably runs counter to some of the suppositions about smoking leading to covid complications for the Chinese.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/can-nicotine-patches-help-you-avoid-covid-19/ar-BB134L0B

I saw this and wondered why they jumped from smoking cigarettes, with thousands of chemicals to one?

I found this:
The researchers said that a “nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (nAChR)” plays a key role in infection from the coronavirus and that nicotine may act to protect this receptor from attack. It may also lessen the overreaction of the body’s immune system that has been found in the most severe cases of Covid-19 infection.

Here:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...-likely-contract-covid-19-prompting-nicotine/

 

[stepford]

Who knew? Woody Allen was right about tobacco all along...