Ed_The_Gypsy said:
Are you confident that conscription will not be reinstated? I am not so sure. As I am working out of the country today, I do not have my finger on the pulse and I can't trust anything in this foreign press on the subject. These clowns don't have a clue about reality in a country with a real army doing a real job.
However, it appears to me that the retention rate in the Army is not good at the moment and the reserves are running out, but the job isn't done yet and exit timetables are controversial.
I have a personal interest in the answer. My boy just turned 18 and I don't think he could get the same deal today as I did by enlisting. (By the way, I was a draft-dodger--I enlisted.
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Your opinion--and that of Nords--would be appreciated.
Cheers, Ed
Woops, you hit my button.
I spent nearly eight years training all types of sailors & officers at various types of technology & warfighting. Training is hard work and there are many obstacles that prevent your students from being able to devote their full attention to the material, even if they want to. One of the key differences that separates the U.S. military from those of the Russians & Chinese is that our enlisted are trained to be technically skilled and qualified to use their leadership & initiative. It's highly unusual in those militaries for the enlisted to challenge their officers on technology or operations, but in the U.S. military that healthy challenge is the norm. (On submarines, the only piece of equipment that officers are allowed to operate is the periscope. It breaks frequently, which proves to the troops the folly of letting their officers operate ANYTHING.) I shudder to think of having to administer a training program to draftees who don't necessarily wanna be there in the first place, let alone want to be combat leaders.
Speaking of training, military guys are trained to do what the Commander in Chief says. Whining is not tolerated and retirements will be swiftly administered for dragging feet. (Remember all those Vietnam-era flag officers who later wished they'd retired in protest?) In light of the general "Yes Sir" mentality, it's noteworthy to remember that Colin Powell firmly planted both feet and stared down Bill Clinton over letting gays serve in the military.
(BTW I think Powell was wrong, but that's another post.) My point is that Powell's obstinance ain't nothin' compared to the howls of outrage & mutiny you'll hear from the military's flag officers if Congress or the President try to reinstate the draft. It will even make Colin Powell break his silence to start a press campaign.
You remember the Navy's 1950s "Revolt of the Admirals" that led to the Treaty of Key West? Same deal, only more contentious. A draft would dumb down both the level of training and the morale of today's military and cause an entire chain of command to exit in disgust.
IIRC (from history books and my Dad's stories) the conscription term was two years. Today the average Navy recruits need two years just to have the opportunity to learn their jobs. Some enlistments permit as little as two years of basically unskilled conscript (Deck Div) labor but the program isn't a raging success. The majority of enlistments are for a minimum of four years, of which much of the first two are spent on basic & advanced training. Highly technical fields (nuclear, electronics, aviation, intel) require six-year enlistments with two-three years of training & qualification before the command benefits from the sailor's skills.
In the mid-90s the Navy got a little too good at drawing down from the first Gulf War (we're still paying the price for poor officer recruiting in '95-96) and by 2000 we were spending huge bucks to attract recruits. (Remember Spike Lee's "Accelerate Your Life" commercials?) Finally the Chief of Naval Personnel, VADM Ryan, was told that it was costing $50K to entice each new sailor into an enlistment contract. He asked "What if we paid it out in bonuses to our reenlisting sailors?" Reenlistment rates doubled within a year and far fewer recruits were necessary. The Navy actually saved money by paying its sailors more.
As a recruiter, it makes no sense to let slip the "news" that recruiting is doing well. You want the program to appear to be perpetually on the brink of disaster, especially by the media. The last six months of every military fiscal year (April-September) are classic recruiting "brinkmanship" months. The typical news story is "Ohmygod we're losing every soldier at the end of their enlistment, and we can't find any more!!" Congressmen receive tailored briefings on the soldiers & recruiting stats from their states, governors huddle with their National Guard commanders, and sober flag officers tell Anderson Cooper that the military will cease to exist in 18 months if this situation isn't turned around. Budgets are boosted, money pours down, bonus bucks flow, Spike Lee makes another commercial, and suddenly it all works out in September! Somehow the retention rates were salvaged and just enough recruits signed up! Some of them are even high school grads without prison records!! Suddenly in October (a new fiscal year) the retention rate plummets to zero and all the new recruits flunk out of boot camp. You see how the game is played.
Norb Ryan is one of the last flag officers to see a force of draftees and he retired a couple years ago. Today he's running the Military Officers Association of America, a potent Congressional lobby for military benefits & programs. These are the guys that brought you TRICARE for Life, the restoration of full combat-related compensation benefits, and the recent improvements to the SBP program. MOAA does not support a draft and will work with its other military lobbying organizations (The Military Coalition) to kill any support for the program. I believe MOAA's track record will enable them to stop a draft.
The new Chairman of the JCS, GEN Pace USMC (how 'bout that, Jarhead?!?) is another draft-era officer. Pace is known as an infantryman's Marine (yeah, I know, they're ALL infantrymen), and although it's hard to believe this about a Marine, he tends to be a bit stubborn & outspoken. He also does not support a draft. As the first Marine CJCS since the billet was created, he will have the credibility and the firepower to keep it from happening for at least the next four years.
Personally I support raising military pay and bonuses. I support that because every time it's been done in the past, retention has soared. (It sure worked on me.) If we keep the troops happy then we won't need as many recruits, and happy troops tend to recruit their own replacements.
But hey, that's just my opinion. We need a few active-duty people to chime in with theirs.
BTW my nephew joined the Army Rangers because he didn't think he could handle college. It turned out that he could handle two tours in Afghanistan and behind-the-lines operations in Iraq before the war, so at that point he decided college might not be so bad after all. This week he's starting his junior year at West Point. He can't imagine leading draftees either. (I've also managed to change his mind on women & gays in the military, but that's another thread too.)
Ed, if your son is a high-school graduate with at least a 2.5 GPA and any interest in the military then I'd be happy to point you in the direction of good deals from ROTC, service academies, and the GI Bill. I don't know about the draft era, but today's military is a better deal for training, experience, responsibility, and a living wage than it's ever been since 1978. Back then I was a tremendous amount of testosterone-poisoned potential with no self-discipline. The Navy gave me a lot of discipline and helped me realize my potential (we've given up on the testosterone poisoning). If the military can do that for your son, then it's at least as good a deal for him as it was for you.