Electric Vehicles - Models Discussion

[Fermion]

From this article,

"China is way ahead of the U.S. in EV adoption and provides a glimpse into what our future may hold. There are already some 20 million all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles swarming the country’s roads, according to BNEF. Last year, China put 890,000 public charging connectors in the ground, the group estimates. That’s over five times the amount of plugs the U.S. has installed, period."


I'm not in favor of most EV mandates, but I'm sure that infrastructure can keep up with demand. Maybe some government incentive is needed to build infrastructure ahead of demand.

Not directly applicable since China doesn't always follow the same rulebook that the USA does. There is a reason besides labor that they build an overpass in a month that takes 2 years in the USA.

I think there could be a fast buildout if people were motivated enough though.

 

[ERD50]

Talk is cheap, and there are plenty of ways around these supposed mandates, they’re really aspirational by some legislators. No one has been forced yet and I seriously doubt anyone will be forced to buy an EV they don’t want for a very long time despite a few “mandates” that are on paper.

Mostly agree, and that's why I say they are nonsense.

Though, if an area does institute a mandate (stuff that I thought would never happen has come to pass before), I'm not so sure there will be "plenty of ways around" them. If your car is aging and needs to be replaced, what do you do? A real mandate is going to include registration, buying from out of town is unlikely to be a viable work around. It will probably apply to used cars as well, otherwise there will be a market for 1 day old cars.

Again, they are just nonsense.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

Originally Posted by ls99 View Post
Seems the fundamental problem, in very cold temperatures of EV with depleted or nearly so batteries is that there is no way to get a quick charge, say equivalent to 5 gal gas can which AAA or some good samaritan could provide, to get them to where a sufficient or full charge can be done to carry on.

Operator error in battery management causing the problems was previously ,in good detail was discussed in previous posts.

Thus they are clogging the charging stations. Requiring a tow to get to where functioning chargers are available. Or many hours of wait time. AAA or some other provider of recovery services can't show up with huge mobile battery to get them going. Maybe in time such service will be available for a small fee.

While the situation is obviously a black eye on EV charging during winter, so far I’ve read about one Supercharger station in Chicago. If it’s a wholesale failure due to extreme winter cold, why only one station in one city reported? ... …

Yes, but every single charger failure is way, way more significant than a gas station failure or just 'running out of gas' scenario.

Even if I don't prepare, and let my tank get low, and I pull into a station that's out of gas, or down for some reason, there's another one a short distance away (probably across the street). And as mentioned, if I actually run out, a 5 gallon gas can gets me going.

The impact of an EV running down to zero is just not comparable, so every instance really does deserve way more attention.

That said, I'd guess that article is 99% click-bait, as that's pretty much all we get from the media these days. But it is still an issue, even if somewhat rare. "Rare" doesn't matter if it happens to you!

-ERD50

 

[RetMD21]

Even if the 2035 mandate isn't changed it's not like ICE vehicles and gas stations will disappear overnight. They will both be available for many years. Even if you were to buy a Stellantis product in 2034 it might last until 2045.

I think the most likely reason for delaying or eliminating the mandate will be GM's inability to build competitive EVs. It's got to be embarrassing that they had to stop selling the Blazer EV due to quality issues. With the loss of the Bolt their EV sales will be lower in 2024. WSJ has an article about the Blazer (not free) They talk to a dealer who has a Blazer on his lot that he isn't allowed to sell and more on order. He wonders about future demand. IDK why Warren Buffett sold his GM stock but it confirmed my decision. If EV prices decline as predicted and BYD starts competing with Tesla in the US then GM may be doomed.

WSJ Blazer link https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/chevy-blazer-troubles-add-to-gms-ev-growing-pains-8f7e5c64

 

[Midpack]

Mostly agree, and that's why I say they are nonsense.

Though, if an area does institute a mandate (stuff that I thought would never happen has come to pass before), I'm not so sure there will be "plenty of ways around" them. If your car is aging and needs to be replaced, what do you do? A real mandate is going to include registration, buying from out of town is unlikely to be a viable work around. It will probably apply to used cars as well, otherwise there will be a market for 1 day old cars.

I know you’ll argue no matter what, but I’d buy a new car from a neighbor state, or a newer used car, nothing stopping you from registering either now. Failing that, if I was concerned/adamant against an EV facing a 2030 mandate (like WA, known in 2024), I’d plan on a new ICE in 2029. Car buyers and special interests are relatively quiet now 6 years out, but that will change as we get closer to 2030 I suspect. Adoption rates in the years just prior to the mandate will speak volumes. But your supreme confidence in your assumptions and ability to predict the future are much better than mine. Done with this...

 

[aja8888]

Even if the 2035 mandate isn't changed it's not like ICE vehicles and gas stations will disappear overnight. They will both be available for many years. Even if you were to buy a Stellantis product in 2034 it might last until 2045.

I think the most likely reason for delaying or eliminating the mandate will be GM's inability to build competitive EVs. It's got to be embarrassing that they had to stop selling the Blazer EV due to quality issues. With the loss of the Bolt their EV sales will be lower in 2024. WSJ has an article about the Blazer (not free) They talk to a dealer who has a Blazer on his lot that he isn't allowed to sell and more on order. He wonders about future demand. IDK why Warren Buffett sold his GM stock but it confirmed my decision. If EV prices decline as predicted and BYD starts competing with Tesla in the US then GM may be doomed.

WSJ Blazer link https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/chevy-blazer-troubles-add-to-gms-ev-growing-pains-8f7e5c64

I was quite surprised about GM's (Mary Barra's) decision to stop producing the Bolt after it was very successful last year (approximately 70,000 units sold worldwide). They based it on the Silverado Truck being built in the assembly plant where the Bolt was produced. And then she back pedelled and said Bolt production will be restarted in 2025 in Mexico with the new battery arrangement.

Clearly not a lot of good decisions being made at corporate GM. No wonder their market share has collapsed over the decades. A recession and buyer pull back my bankrupt GM (again).

 

[MichaelB]

But I think that makes the point about mandating EVs. Sure, some of the public is open to them, already own or plan to own one, but that's only 16%. Who knows how many of the "might consider" would decide "no" when the mandates roll around? It very well "might" depend on where they are living at some future, unknown time and place (have a garage and charge capability at home). And a full 41% say "no".

That's a lot of people who say "no" and are not going to be happy if a mandate comes to be. EVs are fine if they fit your needs, buy one. But this mandate stuff is nonsense, IMO.

-ERD50

You are using my post to argue against mandates when my post had nothing to do with that, and the poll I linked is not related to mandates.

I was addressing the assertion that overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars. It’s just one poll, but it does support the view that more than half the US population is open to owning one now or in the future.

Nothing in the poll about mandates.

 

[Chuckanut]

One interesting fact about the new Supercharger station built at the shopping center near me. It was built after the local power company upgraded the power lines bringing power to the community in the area of the shopping center.

 

[Midpack]

I was quite surprised about GM's (Mary Barra's) decision to stop producing the Bolt after it was very successful last year (approximately 70,000 units sold worldwide). They based it on the Silverado Truck being built in the assembly plant where the Bolt was produced. And then she back pedelled and said Bolt production will be restarted in 2025 in Mexico with the new battery arrangement.

Clearly not a lot of good decisions being made at corporate GM. No wonder their market share has collapsed over the decades. A recession and buyer pull back my bankrupt GM (again).

This is the narrative I've read several times. GM is about profitability period, not "to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible." The Bolt EV/EUVs were/are clearly the best value on the EV market.

“Bolt is selling better than it ever has since the company dropped the price. On the other hand, that probably also means that they’re losing more money than they ever have on that car,” said Sam Abuelsamid, a principal analyst at Guidehouse Insights. “So, they don’t want to keep it going longer. They’re losing money on it.”

 

[RetMD21]

IDK if this has been posted. Proportionally fewer service calls for EVs in Norway vs ICE in extreme cold. The article also indicates that chargers are more of a problem than vehicles
https://electrek.co/2024/01/17/electric-vehicles-fail-lower-rate-than-gas-cars-extreme-cold/

 

[Montecfo]

You are using my post to argue against mandates when my post had nothing to do with that, and the poll I linked is not related to mandates.

I was addressing the assertion that overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars. It’s just one poll, but it does support the view that more than half the US population is open to owning one now or in the future.

Nothing in the poll about mandates.

Yet back to my point, overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars.

In the future anything can happen, sure. But as of now the answer seems to be no for most folks. And as suggested elsewhere, there are structural impediments as of now, including inability to charge at home that make this difficult to change.

But if charging becomes faster and easier and reliability improves I could see this possibly changing.

 

[aja8888]

IDK if this has been posted. Proportionally fewer service calls for EVs in Norway vs ICE in extreme cold. The article also indicates that chargers are more of a problem than vehicles
https://electrek.co/2024/01/17/electric-vehicles-fail-lower-rate-than-gas-cars-extreme-cold/

From the article:

Everywhere in the world, internal combustion engine vehicles fail in the cold a lot more often than electric vehicles, but that’s mostly due to the fact that there are a lot more of them.

And,

To be fair, this data doesn’t adjust for the age of the vehicles. Older gas-powered cars fail at a higher rate than the new ones and electric vehicles are obviously much more recent on average.

Yep, data can be misleading!

 

[ls99]

While the situation is obviously a black eye on EV charging during winter, so far I’ve read about one Supercharger station in Chicago. If it’s a wholesale failure due to extreme winter cold, why only one station in one city reported? Turns out there are 13 Superchargers in the Chicago metro area, and 3 of them were down for some period. It also appears 50 stalls (cumulatively?) were down across the Chicago network, of 156 (admittedly guessing assuming 12 per station)? Not good certainly, and I am sure there have been some stalls down all over, but I wonder how many winter failures there are across the entire network, just to add some perspective? There are somewhere between 17,000 and 22,000 Tesla Supercharger stalls in the US…

The number of current tesla superchargers is irrelevant to the general EV problem with very low or empty battery issue. It is not limited to any one charging station. It does not matter where or when the problem occours. The emeregency type minimal recharge to get under way is still present. It may be rare, there is no quick emergency charge solution.
Maybe a cheater cord to get some juice from another car, willing. Kind of like a jumper cable for dead, low ICE car batteries. Not sure the computers in either car would allow it.

 

[aja8888]

The number of current tesla superchargers is irrelevant to the general EV problem with very low or empty battery issue. It is not limited to any one charging station. It does not matter where or when the problem occours. The emeregency type minimal recharge to get under way is still present. It may be rare, there is no quick emergency charge solution.
Maybe a cheater cord to get some juice from another car, willing. Kind of like a jumper cable for dead, low ICE car batteries. Not sure the computers in either car would allow it.

There is always the "carry a gasoline powered generator and 5 gallons of gas" procedure. May get you a few miles, but you need trunk space.

 

[ERD50]

I know you’ll argue no matter what, but I’d buy a new car from a neighbor state, or a newer used car, nothing stopping you from registering either now. Failing that, if I was concerned/adamant against an EV facing a 2030 mandate (like WA, known in 2024), I’d plan on a new ICE in 2029. Car buyers and special interests are relatively quiet now 6 years out, but that will change as we get closer to 2030 I suspect. Adoption rates in the years just prior to the mandate will speak volumes. But your supreme confidence in your assumptions and ability to predict the future are much better than mine. Done with this...

And obviously, if those mandates do play out for 2030, ICE prices in 2029 will skyrocket.

Anyhow, I just noticed this is the EV ***MODEL*** discussion thread, and this is an EV/ICE/mandate discussion that isn't model specific, so yes, it should stop here.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

You are using my post to argue against mandates when my post had nothing to do with that, and the poll I linked is not related to mandates.

I was addressing the assertion that overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars. It’s just one poll, but it does support the view that more than half the US population is open to owning one now or in the future.

Nothing in the poll about mandates.

Your post replied to Montecfo, which was a reply to Fermion's post about mandates, so I did think it was relate to mandates (even if you didn't intend it, I'm not a mind reader).

-ERD50

 

[dixonge]

re: mandates - if you want to drag your country and its people (many of whom will be drug kicking and screaming) into the age of EV's then a carrot and stick is a decent approach. The carrot is tax credits, the stick is manufacturer mandates. This way they aren't *technically* forcing anyone to buy an EV, but the net effect after only EV's are manufactured is that you will have no choice but to buy a used ICE vehicle or a new EV.

Having said that, I think that the consumer/taxpayer backlash is going to be substantial and I expect the mandate deadlines will be pushed back again and again.

As costs continue to drop and charging options continue to grow and model choices continue to expand I think EV's will become the favored choice at some point. Theoretically what might be the final straw could be insurance rates rising on ICE vehicles once they become more likely to be involved in crashes and injuries compared to EV's.

Of course in 'murica I picture defiant rural folks everywhere buying monster diesel pickups with gun racks and coal-rolling every EV they see while cranking up Rush' "Red Barchetta." And as much as I love the idea of living in an EV world, I'm somewhat sympathetic to the resistance.

 

[Fermion]

Of course in 'murica I picture defiant rural folks everywhere buying monster diesel pickups with gun racks and coal-rolling every EV they see while cranking up Rush' "Red Barchetta." And as much as I love the idea of living in an EV world, I'm somewhat sympathetic to the resistance.

Most of the rural folks actually use their pickup truck AS a pickup truck, hauling hay and feed, firewood, equipment trailers, etc. The current model line of EV pickup trucks are a joke to them with the range dropping to sub 100 miles when towing a 14,000 pound trailer with a tractor on it.

Your Carhartt wearing 30 something software dev who buys a $80,000 Rivian and takes it to the carwash three times a week and has covers for the wheels is a different market.

 

[explanade]

By 2030 or 2035, if there are significantly more EVs worldwide, what will it do to gas and ICE sales?

Investment in oil production may decline and lead to higher prices, further placing downward pressure on gas and ICE sales.

 

[Chuckanut]

I found this video on setting up a home charge from State of Charge. It’s a discussion of how many amps you’d need for home charging and how to go about getting it setup.

https://youtu.be/edqfXbwDGdw?si=YBL2Btq9nsSOnh9F

I’m not an electrician but what he says seems to make sense. If you’ve watched it I would appreciate your opinion.

 

[audreyh1]

Number of Amps depends on how fast you want to charge at home.

I’ve even charged at 12 Amps on a 110V circuit.

No big deal for us. We bought a Tesla Wall Charger and made sure we had the right connections to it installed by a technician. We can also choose how much current we draw while charging.

Before that we used our RV Pedestal which had a 50Amp 220V connection. On that we typically pulled 32A.

 

[REWahoo]

I found this video on setting up a home charge from State of Charge. It’s a discussion of how many amps you’d need for home charging and how to go about getting it setup.

https://youtu.be/edqfXbwDGdw?si=YBL2Btq9nsSOnh9F

I’m not an electrician but what he says seems to make sense. If you’ve watched it I would appreciate your opinion.

This guy is very knowledgeable about EV charging and has a number of YouTube videos on the subject. He’s spot on.

 

[aja8888]

This guy is very knowledgeable about EV charging and has a number of YouTube videos on the subject. He’s spot on.

Notice the Qmerit sign on the wall behind him.

 

[REWahoo]

Notice the Qmerit sign on the wall behind him.

Yep.

I think his "State of Charge" YouTube channel is a smart way for them to advertise. After all, Qmerit calls themselves "the North American leader in home EV charging installations".

And they can certainly afford it since they've made a b*ttload of money off GM the past few years.

 

[yakers]

They did the installation for DWs Bolt , no problem in 7 months, no charge, using 'charger' provided by GM