Fantastic Vaccine Results in US

[audreyh1]

Here’s an interesting chart:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E035C1UUUAMaHnc?format=jpg&name=4096x4096

Note the sharp drop in the seven day average that started at the same time vaccinations became available.

Which sharp drop? The vaccines take 5 to 6 weeks to become effective, so there is a noticeable lag. Only a small percent of people started getting vaccinated thru Jan, and really didn’t reach a significant number until Feb/Mar but still restricted to the very oldest in the population or medical/front line workers. Only in March/April was it opened to everyone.

The dramatic Jan drop is from other factors.

Even though there is some definite protection from infection about 2 weeks after the first dose, that’s less true for the variants. My main point is that IMO not enough people had been vaccinated by Jan 1 to cause a dramatic drop across the whole population starting mid Jan. Sure vaccines probably started to help pull down that curve as time went on, but then it stalled out and even went up a bit while way more people were getting vaccinated! We should be seeing more dramatic results now that a much higher percentage has been fully vaccinated and even more have gotten their first dose.

 

[jollystomper]

The vaccines take 5 to 6 weeks to become effective, so there is a noticeable lag.

CDC says 2 weeks.

 

[audreyh1]

CDC says 2 weeks.

2 weeks after 2nd dose, 3 to 4 weeks between 1st and 2nd doses. So starting from first vaccination, the whole process takes 5 to 6 weeks which is quite a lag.

 

[Aerides]

The dramatic Jan drop is from other factors.

Even though there is some definite protection from infection about 2 weeks after the first dose, that’s less true for the variants. My main point is that IMO not enough people had been vaccinated by Jan 1 to cause a dramatic drop starting mid Jan. Sure vaccines probably started to help pull down that curve as time went on, but then it stalled out while even way more people were getting vaccinated! We should be seeing more dramatic results now that a much higher percentage has been fully vaccinated and even more have gotten their first dose.

I think the Jan drop was in part due to people getting serious again as cases rose, and the holidays were behind us. Behavior mostly.

As a non-special-group person, over 50, I booked my vaccine the as soon as it was available. completed first and second shots and I'm only now on day 3 "fully" vaccinated (2 shots + 2 weeks after the 2nd). So given how many people were behind me in age going thru the process now it's still going to be another 30+ days before we see the protection fully in place for "everyone."

Plus a lot of younger people who were expecting to have to wait till the summer or longer probably weren't F5'ing walgreens at 7am the day it opened for their age group. So, yes, there should be a lag between vaccination data impacting cases, even though one's risk starts to drop after the first shot.

Kinda reminds me of when things first reopened last May, and two weeks later everyone was like "welp cases aren't bad so we're probably ok now!" only in reverse.

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah, at 61 I was finally fully vaccinated Wed of last week. I was still scrambling to get my first dose. DH was fully vaccinated at the end of Feb, and it was so difficult to get his first dose in late Jan.

 

[jollystomper]

2 weeks after 2nd dose, 3 to 4 weeks between 1st and 2nd doses. So starting from first vaccination, the whole process takes 5 to 6 weeks which is quite a lag.

It is already more than 50% effective after the first dose... to say its is not effective at all until six weeks after the 2nd does is somewhat of a misnomer. There is some benefit before the 5 to 6 weeks.

 

[audreyh1]

My main point was that thru Jan 1, the vaccine which was still in limited supply, was mostly restricted to the oldest age groups, which is a quite small percent of the total population and not nearly enough people would have been vaccinated to create a dramatic effect for the total population.

 

[Alan]

My main point was that thru Jan 1, the vaccine which was still in limited supply, was mostly restricted to the oldest age groups, which is a quite small percent of the total population and not nearly enough people would have been vaccinated to create a dramatic effect for the total population.

I agree.

As I posted earlier, the UK saw the same sharp drop in infectious weeks before enough folks had been vaccinated to attribute the drop to the vaccine distribution.

Spot on.

At a briefing earlier this week the CMO made this exact point with the use of some charts, pointing out that when infections and hospitalizations started dropping rapidly the number of folks vaccinated was still quite low and it was the lockdown that had started 2 or 3 weeks earlier that was mainly responsible for this improvement.

 

[Aerides]

It is already more than 50% effective after the first dose... to say its is not effective at all until six weeks after the 2nd does is somewhat of a misnomer. There is some benefit before the 5 to 6 weeks.

For sure, some, but not from day1 of dose1. It's about 2 weeks to begin the ramp up, much like flu shots. And then after two weeks, before the 2nd shot, you can get up to 70/80.

But the whole "but everyone is vaccinated why are cases high" doesn't seem to acknowledge there are millions of folks somewhere on the ramp, and probably a whole lot more in weeks 0-3 than in 4-6. (as of today anyway).

 

[explanade]

I agree.

As I posted earlier, the UK saw the same sharp drop in infectious weeks before enough folks had been vaccinated to attribute the drop to the vaccine distribution.

UK has started easing those restrictions right, pubs open in the last week or so.

More easing of restrictions on May 17 and then even more in mid or late June.

But there is some consternation in response to the release of the list of green countries which UK residents will be permitted to visit and return from without quarantine or testing requirements.

The list was very narrow and doesn't exempt the vaccinated.

So it appears the UK authorities aren't completely sold on the protective effects of vaccines nor the notion of the vaccinated not transmitting infections at much lower rates than the unvaccinated.

 

[Koolau]

We started out knowing very little about this virus. We've certainly added to the "science" but I wouldn't say one city believed the science while others didn't. If you take 100 localities, you'll find a large variation in case, deaths, etc. Suggesting that the one locality with the lowest (pick-your-indicator) accepted the "science" is a bit speculative.

We'll probably never know why SF happened to be the best spot in Cali during the pandemic. It most likely wasn't because everyone there believed and practiced the science. I'm not trying to pitch a hand grenade into the compound here. I'm just suggesting that someone had to come out on top - and, yes, by quite a bit. It MIGHT indeed be of value to retrospectively TRY to figure out why this was true. It might turn out to be more about local climate than due to "compliance" or believing in the science. Again, I say this NOT to besmirch ANYONE. I'm only suggesting there are too many variables. Saying those that somehow got it "right" actually knew what they were doing and weren't just a bit lucky could be problematic.

As it turns out, I just saw a news report last night which stated Hawaii State currently has the highest rate of at least one dose of vaccine. SOMEONE had to "win" that distinction. I would suggest there was more luck than good management involved, but YMMV.

 

[Alan]

UK has started easing those restrictions right, pubs open in the last week or so.

More easing of restrictions on May 17 and then even more in mid or late June.

But there is some consternation in response to the release of the list of green countries which UK residents will be permitted to visit and return from without quarantine or testing requirements.

The list was very narrow and doesn't exempt the vaccinated.

So it appears the UK authorities aren't completely sold on the protective effects of vaccines nor the notion of the vaccinated not transmitting infections at much lower rates than the unvaccinated.

Pubs and restaurants are not open for indoors until May 17th in England. Not sure about the other countries in the UK, they all have different reopening plans.

All restrictions scheduled to be lifted mid June in England. Still only 17m people have been fully vaccinated in the UK and all adults won’t have at least 1 dose until end of July so still plenty of caution in opening up the borders to tourist travel. Scotland only opened its border for casual travel to England 2 weeks ago.

 

[braumeister]

Pubs and restaurants are not open for indoors until May 17th in England. Not sure about the other countries in the UK, they all have different reopening plans.

All restrictions scheduled to be lifted mid June in England. Still only 17m people have been fully vaccinated in the UK and all adults won’t have at least 1 dose until end of July so still plenty of caution in opening up the borders to tourist travel. Scotland only opened its border for casual travel to England 2 weeks ago.

That makes perfect sense to me. Just like Canada, which is maintaining its closed border. Less than 3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. So I don't really mind that they won't let me visit yet. Honest, I don't really mind. Well, I mind, but I understand.

 

[explanade]

Right they’re allowed to have drinks outside the pubs.

But I recall stories about queues forming.

 

[tulak]

That makes perfect sense to me. Just like Canada, which is maintaining its closed border. Less than 3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. So I don't really mind that they won't let me visit yet. Honest, I don't really mind. Well, I mind, but I understand.

As long as they open by next ski season, it’s fine with me too. [emoji4]

 

[Koolau]

Oh Canada!

That makes perfect sense to me. Just like Canada, which is maintaining its closed border. Less than 3% of Canadians are fully vaccinated. So I don't really mind that they won't let me visit yet. Honest, I don't really mind. Well, I mind, but I understand.

Interesting. Last time I traveled to Canada - pre pandemic - I concluded that I'd never return. It was clear they didn't want any of those gun-toting, drug addled Americans in their (arguably, very) beautiful country. I love Canada and it has much to offer. But, if they don't want me, there are many other places to go. Now that it's official (and they can't seem to vaccinate their folks) I guess I have yet another reason to stay out. BUT, I'm not bitter.

 

[stepford]

Interesting. Last time I traveled to Canada - pre pandemic - I concluded that I'd never return. It was clear they didn't want any of those gun-toting, drug addled Americans in their (arguably, very) beautiful country. I love Canada and it has much to offer. But, if they don't want me, there are many other places to go. Now that it's official (and they can't seem to vaccinate their folks) I guess I have yet another reason to stay out. BUT, I'm not bitter.

Wow, I've visited Canada many times and never got any of the "U.S.Hate" you're describing. I've always been pretty circumspect about my politics and try never to present an "America First" vibe when traveling and antagonism just seems rare.

 

[tulak]

Same here. I visit(ed) Canada a few times a year and everyone I’ve encountered has been friendly. Even the immigration guy, who asked why I’m visiting and I answered for dinner and a movie. While technically true, probably not the best response. [emoji2]

 

[braumeister]

Interesting. Last time I traveled to Canada - pre pandemic - I concluded that I'd never return. It was clear they didn't want any of those gun-toting, drug addled Americans in their (arguably, very) beautiful country. I love Canada and it has much to offer. But, if they don't want me, there are many other places to go. Now that it's official (and they can't seem to vaccinate their folks) I guess I have yet another reason to stay out. BUT, I'm not bitter.

Sounds like you had one bad experience somewhere for whatever reason and are extrapolating it to the whole country for all time. I think your mileage must vary quite a lot.

 

[audreyh1]

My visits to Canadian have been lovely. I interacted with plenty of the legendary “nice” Canadians including their customs folks. People were quite friendly too. I have visited many provinces over the past 20 years.

 

[gattara]

Wow, I've visited Canada many times and never got any of the "U.S.Hate" you're describing. I've always been pretty circumspect about my politics and try never to present an "America First" vibe when traveling and antagonism just seems rare.

Same experience here. Love love love visiting Canada and I'd be open to living there if they'd have me.

 

[harllee]

Same experience here. Love love love visiting Canada and I'd be open to living there if they'd have me.

Same here. I love visiting Canada and at one time thought of moving there.

 

[Gumby]

Put me down as another who has always enjoyed visiting Canada and interacting with its friendly people.

 

[travelover]

Same here. I visit(ed) Canada a few times a year and everyone I’ve encountered has been friendly. Even the immigration guy, who asked why I’m visiting and I answered for dinner and a movie. While technically true, probably not the best response. [emoji2]

I used to visit Canada frequently, but after 9/11, I quit. The Canadian border people were nice but the guys on the US side, coming home, were total jackasses.

 

[Koolau]

Sounds like you had one bad experience somewhere for whatever reason and are extrapolating it to the whole country for all time. I think your mileage must vary quite a lot.

Oh, I agree. It was pretty much just one bad experience. Most of my many previous forays into Canada were quite welcoming. Without stepping over any lines, here, I'll just say this was ca. 2018. If no one makes a connection (or if they do) I'll just leave it that THAT time frame was what I chalked it up to. BUT I'm pretty much of the once-burned, twice-shy school - especially since there are a lot of other places to go - especially within the USA. As I say, I love Canada. I love Canadians. I love when Canadians visit Hawaii. So YMMV as well as mine.