Herd Immunity in the US out of Reach

[REWahoo]

...more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon.

Reaching 'herd immunity' is unlikely in the U.S., experts now believe

 

[Ready]

There are enough people who choose not to get vaccinated that herd immunity is not likely to ever happen. The virus will keep mutating. And international travelers who have not been vaccinated will continue to visit the US and other countries and continue to spread it around the world.

But on the positive side, the CDC reported that out of the 95 million people in the US who have received the vaccine, only 9,245 cases of infection have been reported. That tells us that the vaccine has been overwhelmingly successful at keeping people from getting sick. And out of those infections, only 132 people have died.

So while we can’t control what other people do, we can keep ourselves safe by getting vaccinated. If people choose to avoid the vaccine, that is their own issue.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

 

[disneysteve]

Well we probably couldn't get herd immunity until we have a pediatric vaccine anyway since about 20% of the population is children. And, as noted, there is a significant number of people refusing vaccination. The US is off to a good start with 32% fully vaccinated, but much of the rest of the world lags greatly behind in their vaccination efforts. So yes, COVID isn't going away, probably ever. It will remain endemic like the flu.

 

[audreyh1]

it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings......

Too early to make any such call, IMO, but will probably not be until children can be vaccinated too.

We’ll just have to see how it plays out. No point in giving up now.

 

[euro]

There are enough people who choose not to get vaccinated that herd immunity is not likely to ever happen. The virus will keep mutating. And international travelers who have not been vaccinated will continue to visit the US and other countries and continue to spread it around the world.

But on the positive side, the CDC reported that out of the 95 million people in the US who have received the vaccine, only 9,245 cases of infection have been reported. That tells us that the vaccine has been overwhelmingly successful at keeping people from getting sick. And out of those infections, only 132 people have died.

So while we can’t control what other people do, we can keep ourselves safe by getting vaccinated. If people choose to avoid the vaccine, that is their own issue.

https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/health-departments/breakthrough-cases.html

The problem with this is that chances are HIGH that without full suppression, escape mutations will evolve that will get around the vaccine's effectiveness. At THAT point, we'll all be back to square one. It is possible that most of us can protect ourselves reasonably well perhaps with annual booster shots to include the new variants, but there is no doubt that many lifes will be lost unnecessarily because of these knuckleheads.

 

[Freedom56]

I looked though some vaccination data by zip code in California and it's pretty clear that many affluent high compliant areas are beyond what is needed for herd immunity and many of the poorer areas are still at 30% with at least one dose. This is despite all the efforts made to reach out to those communities and make vaccines available. In fact many from affluent areas went to the vaccine sites in poorer communities to get their jabs early. For over three weeks there has been absolutely no wait time in getting appointment. You could book same day appointments at dozens of sites. Now you don't even need appointments. There are even mobile units setting up pop up vaccination clinics. The last mile is going to be the most difficult. In communities dominated by anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists, it will be next to impossible get people vaccinated. We may see Darwinism in action over the next few years.

https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccination-progress-data/

 

[skyking1]

Evolution is a slow process. We have a ways to go yet.

 

[Jeffman52]

Virus's evolve and mutate. There is zero chance that we are going to wipe this virus out. People getting the virus gives them antibodies and T-cell memory. That leads us closer to herd immunity. Just keep in mind that herd immunity does not mean it will disappear but that it will become more rare. Even if the USA is able to get to what is considered herd immunity, unless we close our borders we are looking at variants coming into the US from places like India, Brazil, etc etc

 

[Another Reader]

Carrots and sticks to get people vaccinated will follow soon.

 

[audreyh1]

Virus's evolve and mutate. There is zero chance that we are going to wipe this virus out. People getting the virus gives them antibodies and T-cell memory. That leads us closer to herd immunity. Just keep in mind that herd immunity does not mean it will disappear but that it will become more rare. Even if the USA is able to get to what is considered herd immunity, unless we close our borders we are looking at variants coming into the US from places like India, Brazil, etc etc

Not to mention other mammals catch it too. Although someone recently released a vaccine for dogs, cats, and some others like ferrets.

 

[SecondCor521]

I was just saying the other day that the subsidence of the virus in the US reduces the pressure to get vaccinated so I thought we might seesaw - if there is a resurgence, people will get vaccinated, it will subside, then people will see less urgency, and the cycle would continue.

Although I do think things will get better over time (I usually think that about everything though). I think the virus will evolve to be more communicable but less deadly. I also like to think, with no scientific basis whatsoever, that as we encounter more variants and more exposure, we'll gradually creep up to herd immunity regardless of how well we do on the vaccination front.

 

[Amethyst]

Children from unvaccinated homes are unlikely ever to get vaccinated, unfortunately. Unless they are smarter than those who raised them.

i

Too early to make any such call, IMO, but will probably not be until children can be vaccinated too.

.

 

[thod]

Keep in mind that herd immunity or the approaching of such, actually leads to virus mutations taking hold. Non-mutated viruses 'die' off failing to find enough hosts. But, mutated ones get around that and may end up flourishing because of stuff like lack of competition, etc. Sometimes the mutated virus might be worse than the original version. So vaccines can be a 2 edged sword.

At some point we will have to adjust to the risks and continue on with our lives. Failure to do so will end up creating a worse quality of life for everyone.

 

[Midpack]

it ain’t over ‘til the fat lady sings......

Too early to make any such call, IMO, but will probably not be until children can be vaccinated too.

We’ll just have to see how it plays out. No point in giving up now.

Perhaps there will be more stats showing how much better the vaccinated are faring than the non-vaccinated that will convince some of the latter to change their minds. It’s really sad this has been such a partisan issue, like Covid cares.

 

[SecondCor521]

Perhaps there will be more stats showing how much better the vaccinated are faring than the non-vaccinated that will convince some of the latter to change their minds. It’s really sad this has been such a partisan issue, like Covid cares.

It was refreshing for me last fall to go on a vacation to a foreign country where the protocols were just that - protocols. There were, in fact, some local politics going on that I learned about while there, but since it wasn't my country I could delightfully ignore it all and just enjoy the beach.

 

[MRG]

Children from unvaccinated homes are unlikely ever to get vaccinated, unfortunately. Unless they are smarter than those who raised them.

Those exist.

 

[ivinsfan]

I looked though some vaccination data by zip code in California and it's pretty clear that many affluent high compliant areas are beyond what is needed for herd immunity and many of the poorer areas are still at 30% with at least one dose. This is despite all the efforts made to reach out to those communities and make vaccines available. In fact many from affluent areas went to the vaccine sites in poorer communities to get their jabs early. For over three weeks there has been absolutely no wait time in getting appointment. You could book same day appointments at dozens of sites. Now you don't even need appointments. There are even mobile units setting up pop up vaccination clinics. The last mile is going to be the most difficult. In communities dominated by anti-vaxxers and conspiracy theorists, it will be next to impossible get people vaccinated. We may see Darwinism in action over the next few years.

https://covid19.ca.gov/vaccination-progress-data/

What's your point here? Using words like anti-vaxxers , conspiracy theory, darwin in action expresses such contempt for the unvaccinated. A better question would be why are they not getting vaccinated? Lumping people into groups and talking smack about them doesn't do a darn thing to help.


Oh, I forgot you lumped poor people in a group too.

 

[ls99]

Too many experts. Evolution will sort it all out.

 

[Whisper66]

What's your point here? Using words like anti-vaxxers , conspiracy theory, darwin in action expresses such contempt for the unvaccinated. A better question would why are they not getting vaccinated? Lumping people into groups and talking smack about them doesn't do a darn thing to help.


Oh, I forgot you lumped poor people in a group too.

+100
Thx for this post. Was just thinking how disappointing comments have gotten from several posters here. Time for some here to recognize people don’t always agree with you and many won’t fit into your name calling buckets you use to try to demean others.

 

[ivinsfan]

+100
Thx for this post. Was just thinking how disappointing comments have gotten from several posters here. Time for some here to recognize people don’t always agree with you and many won’t fit into your name calling buckets you use to try to demean others.

I'd rather talk about how to get them vaccinated, what would it take.
I'm randomly thinking the next round of government Covid payments should go to vaccinated people only, maybe that would do it...

 

[Whisper66]

I'd rather talk about how to get them vaccinated, what would it take.
I'm randomly thinking the next round of government Covid payments should go to vaccinated people only, maybe that would do it...

Seems like a good idea, I'd support that. I'm not too worried though. Folks that want to protect themselves already have the ability to do that either by isolating and masking or by getting free, easy access to vaccines .... at least in my area that is true. I honestly think the cyclic nature of infection rates will naturally get more people to get vaccinated over time. As rates are high in an area, I suspect more folks will decide the risk of Covid outdoes the risk of vaccines. For example, the added "run time" of many folks having had the vaccines without significant effects should help those worried about longer term effects (hopefully). My state, Texas, was famously referred to as making "Neanderthal" decision to reopen March 10th. Alarmists predicting terrible rising infection rates. So far (May 3), no real impact on the state's overall numbers. Clearly there is something missing in our understanding of this bug. People specuate all the time with their favorite pet theories on why data is going the way it is.... but would be nice if we actually understood it and weren't just guessing. Then governments would know when lock downs were really justified and when they should allow people to live normally again. Oh well, just wishful thinking.....

See Texas Daily New Cases Graph on this link - not much change since reopening March 10.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/texas/

 

[skyking1]

There is a considerable lag between changes in behaviors and outcomes with any pandemic process.
It is vexing because people will draw misinformed conclusions. Even looking back, it's hard to decipher changes from statistical noise. Each of these waves that have happened across various communities are proof plenty of that.

 

[Another Reader]

Full approval instead of the EUA will allow the vaccine to be required for many things. Once the military requires vaccination, military families will be more inclined to comply. Health facilities can then mandate it for employees, as they now do for the measles vaccine. Once it's clear the side effects are generally minimal, interest will grow.

The extension of the approval to 12 to 16 year olds will allow junior high and high schools to require it. Another large cohort done.

I don't know the politics of the EUA, especially with respect to the liability issue, but it's time for the FDA to move forward with full approval.

 

[flintnational]

Last year we spent several days quarantined in our interior state room on the Princess cruise anchored in SF bay. We then spent four days quarantined under supervision of Federal Marshals at Dobbins Air Base. (We were issued an Official Quarantine Order from the CDC - suitable for framing. ) We then were allowed to finish our quarantine at home.

Needless to say, when we were offered the vaccine earlier this year, we ran, not walked, to the vaccine site!

 

[marko]

A year ago last month my doctor told me that because we were closing the schools there was little hope of ever getting herd immunity.

His belief was that since children were highly unlikely to be mortally affected it was best for them to get Covid and be done with it; no vaccine required.

He felt that if we take too long for vaccinating everyone--especially children--mutations would make it a never ending whack-a-mole.

And here we are.