Herd Immunity in the US out of Reach

[Freedom56]

Oh, well, I guess they thought they were going to lick COVID too and reach herd immunity by mid-March. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...covid-19-herd-immunity-by-mid-march-1.5331451

I think it has a lot to do with using vaccines with questionable efficacy. The Chinese COVID vaccine is probably as effective as a placebo despite the claims of 50.2% efficacy. Which leaves half the vaccinated population receiving AstraZeneca. The story on the efficacy on that vaccine is a moving target and it's apparent that the FDA has been slow rolling the EUA for that vaccine. The FDA must have realized that they had a problem with the J&J vaccine when city mayors and other public health officials refused their allocation after the 66% efficacy announcement. Then the story changed to 85% chance that someone injected with J&J won't be hospitalized. The pause due to rare blood clots all but killed acceptance of the J&J vaccine. I really worry about those countries using vaccines such as Sputnik with claimed efficacy based on propaganda rather than science. The U.S. should just export/donate the unused J&J and AstraZenica to other countries so they can stop injecting their population with Sputnik and Chinese vaccines. There is more than enough Pfizer and Moderna to vaccinate the population in this country.

 

[Winemaker]

Yes, I agree. I have not said that I will never get the vaccine; only that I choose to not get it at this time, based on my personal situation.

+1

 

[jim584672]

Tiny Gibraltar (the Rock) vaccinated 90%+.

https://www.axios.com/gibraltar-cor...ate-7f7009ee-e692-4925-93f8-89fa53b7f95f.html

 

[RetMD21]

Now that the vaccines are available to all adults in the US and likely soon for for anyone 12+ I am returning to more normal activity. I put the N95 away and wear a simple cloth mask when required. We ate in 2 indoor restaurants last week. Went to an outdoor event mostly unmasked. Although I would prefer vaccination, if people want to chance getting covid if that is fine with me. Even if the perfect instant test strip existed I am not sure if I would be interested in being tested. I might skip those places.

The experience in Michigan was that cases increased in the last wave in April but then declined without increased restrictions. Deaths were relatively low. The hospitals were not overwhelmed.

 

[Jeffman52]

And of course one would hope that Covid would be accepting of your personal time line.

I would keep in mind that Covid-19 is not a death sentence for everyone. Most people that got the virus did not die and many had mild to moderate symptoms. Those that are most at risk of death have one or more co-morbid conditions. That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions to this, its just more prevalent in that group.

Overall in the USA, divide deaths by cases and you get 1.78%.

 

[urn2bfree]

Keep in mind that herd immunity or the approaching of such, actually leads to virus mutations taking hold. Non-mutated viruses 'die' off failing to find enough hosts. But, mutated ones get around that and may end up flourishing because of stuff like lack of competition, etc. Sometimes the mutated virus might be worse than the original version. So vaccines can be a 2 edged sword.

At some point we will have to adjust to the risks and continue on with our lives. Failure to do so will end up creating a worse quality of life for everyone.

This is so dangerously wrong. Herd immunity does not "lead to mutations." Mutations occur naturally whenever a virus is made. They are not a response to immunity, they are dumb random changes. They are not strategically developed to evade vaccines.

And-
Viruses cannot mutate on their own- only when they are multiplying in a host. Viruses cannot mutate or multiply outside of a host. Viruses multiply in a non-immune host. So vaccines REDUCE the likelihood of mutations since viruses have a hard time multiplying inside vaccinated hosts... Vaccines reduce the chance of mutation. Lack of vaccines leads to more mutations.

There is no two-edged sword to vaccines in the way you described it.

 

[ncbill]

All I want now is an oral version of the vaccine so I can secretly dose those around me who refuse to take the shot.

"I made a smoothie for you!"

 

[garyt]

I wonder if people who do not like vaccine because it's too new will refuse new medicine if they come down with any disease, not just Covid.

Any "new" medicine will still have the necessary testing of years. New doesn't mean it didn't go through clinical trials, assuming it's not an emergency authorization like the vaccine.

 

[ivinsfan]

I would keep in mind that Covid-19 is not a death sentence for everyone. Most people that got the virus did not die and many had mild to moderate symptoms. Those that are most at risk of death have one or more co-morbid conditions. That doesn't mean there aren't exceptions to this, its just more prevalent in that group.

Overall in the USA, divide deaths by cases and you get 1.78%.

Go read the thread about Alan's son and then tell me what you think. Covid's like roulette ...much more then the vaccine is.

 

[ivinsfan]

Any "new" medicine will still have the necessary testing of years. New doesn't mean it didn't go through clinical trials, assuming it's not an emergency authorization like the vaccine.

What's your point? They found the vaccine too fast?

 

[Jeffman52]

Go read the thread about Alan's son and then tell me what you think. Covid's like roulette ...much more then the vaccine is.

I can take any disease and/or virus and find those kinds of exceptions. Its roulette when I start my car and drive it out of my driveway. That doesn't make it any easier for those affected nor less tragic with how it impacts those persons or families. But the entire world cant go about their day based on exceptions.

 

[MichaelB]

<mod note>
We really don’t need another discussion about the risk or severity of COVID. Let’s move on from that, please.

 

[Winemaker]

What's your point? They found the vaccine too fast?

Normal vaccinations and pharmaceuticals are tested for 3-5 years before they are given approval for use in US citizens, even if they were discovered last week.

The Covid 19 vaccines did NOT get approved yet in the normal approval mechanism; they have EMERGENCY USE APPROVAL.

I am not an anti vaxxer, but I am not rushing out to get a vaccine that has not been tested for long term effects. That is my choice, as it is my DW's. We have been day sitting my 85yo mother, who was only recently approved for the vaccine, for several months. I am more apt to get the J&J vax, as the technology for has been around for a while, but it isn't available in this area. Other than DW's severe allergies to just about anything that fly down the street, we are both in great health. In our circle of friends and tenants, we have still only know of 2 people who became infected. Our travel plans are on hold right now but I would travel tomorrow if I had the chance.

 

[ivinsfan]

Normal vaccinations and pharmaceuticals are tested for 3-5 years before they are given approval for use in US citizens, even if they were discovered last week.

The Covid 19 vaccines did NOT get approved yet in the normal approval mechanism; they have EMERGENCY USE APPROVAL.

I am not an anti vaxxer, but I am not rushing out to get a vaccine that has not been tested for long term effects. That is my choice, as it is my DW's. We have been day sitting my 85yo mother, who was only recently approved for the vaccine, for several months. I am more apt to get the J&J vax, as the technology for has been around for a while, but it isn't available in this area. Other than DW's severe allergies to just about anything that fly down the street, we are both in great health. In our circle of friends and tenants, we have still only know of 2 people who became infected. Our travel plans are on hold right now but I would travel tomorrow if I had the chance.

Just out of curiosity I wonder how much of that 3 to 5 year time frame is due to paper shuffling and governmental slowness... and FWIW you don't need to scream at me that it got emergency approval. I wonder what people would think if that vaccine
was sitting on the shelf waiting while Covid went relentlessly higher.



I know double digit number of people that have gotten Covid.

 

[skyking1]

i keep hearing this "tested for long term effects".
Please, provide one example where they discovered a long term effect in a vaccine.
The problem is people conflate a vaccine with any other protocol.
Vaccines have one purpose; get your immune system to make some specific antibodies, and then disappear. These properties are easy to confirm and have been confirmed.
Conflating that with a drug protocol is bad science. A drug protocol is ongoing, dosing your entire system with an agent that is strong enough to treat some disease process. What is fixing your thyroid can well be wrecking your liver, for example.
So I ask again, name some vaccine that had negative long term effects?
With drugs it is easy, there is a whole list of drugs that have been banned many years after initial testing, and others that have a huge laundry list of possible side effects.
Vaccines are simply not in that class. if ever there was an apples/oranges thing this is it.

 

[Jeffman52]

A quick google on the CDC site showed a number of issues over the years from various vaccines. Its rare, but it does happen.

In 1955, some batches of polio vaccine given to the public contained live polio virus, even though they had passed required safety testing. Over 250 cases of polio were attributed to vaccines produced by one company: Cutter Laboratories. This case, which came to be known as the Cutter Incident, resulted in many cases of paralysis. The vaccine was recalled as soon as cases of polio were detected.

In 1973 they found that 1 in 100,000 who got the Swine flu vaccine also got a neurological disease (GBS). They still dont know why.

Rotavirus vaccine 1998 and 1999 - After being approved by the FDA, some infants developed intussusception (rare type of bowel obstruction that occurs when the bowel folds in on itself) after being vaccinated. It was a year later when it was voluntarily removed from the market.

 

[skyking1]

Your first example can be dismissed because there is no live virus being used anywhere.
The second two are valid points. It still doesn't add up to a hill of beans in my opinion.
The fact that the talking point is always "long-term effects" , leads me to believe that people are just repeating what they have read somewhere else.
Would you categorize either of the other side effects that have been attributed to a vaccine, notably without proof by anyone, as truly being a long-term effect? Would not both of those cases be called a side effect?

 

[disneysteve]

Guillan Barre (GBS) is awful and can happen as a result of vaccination - most any vaccination actually. In the case of Swine Flu, 1 in 100,000 cases is an occurrence rate of 0.001%. Hardly a reason to not be vaccinated. I'm far more likely to die by falling down the stairs this afternoon.


Actually, the two vaccines most likely (still exceedingly rare) to cause GBS are Tetanus and Flu but we still administer those all the time to millions of people.


Finally, most cases of GBS occur within 3 weeks of vaccination. It is not a "long-term" side effect. Seeing as a couple hundred million people have already had the COVID vaccine, any significant increase in GBS would likely already be known at this point as we've been vaccinating for 5 months now.

 

[braumeister]

Guillan Barre (GBS) is awful and can happen as a result of vaccination - most any vaccination actually.

In fairness, it can also happen independently. I had a friend diagnosed with GBS a long time ago, and it was not in conjunction with any vaccination.

Nasty syndrome -- it took him several years to recover fully.

 

[audreyh1]

In fairness, it can also happen independently. I had a friend diagnosed with GBS a long time ago, and it was not in conjunction with any vaccination.

Nasty syndrome -- it took him several years to recover fully.

I think many infections can lead to GBS. It’s is rare. From CDC:

GBS is rare. Each year, about 3,000 to 6,000 people in the United States develop GBS whether or not they received a vaccination – that's 1 to 2 people out of every 100,000 people.Dec 15, 2009

 

[Time2]

I'd rather talk about how to get them vaccinated, what would it take.
I'm randomly thinking the next round of government Covid payments should go to vaccinated people only, maybe that would do it...

OH, neat idea, incentives to get vaccinated, I think that would motive many that haven't got their shots yet.

 

[sengsational]

Thank you for your perspective on this, JDarnell. My wife and I also had COVID (about a year ago now), and we have both recovered completely. We are also not anxious to get the vaccine at this point.

And that's a logical position, IMO, because there's no real proof that a vaccine would improve your ability to fight off the disease that I've seen. The "everyone get vaccinated" push, in my opinion, is driven by a simplicity in public health messaging. IOW, they don't think we're smart enough to know that you and others recovered have immunity that could be better (antibodies to more parts of the virus than only the spike). So in attempting to simplify the message, they leave out some basic understanding, which results in 10 page threads. The second aspect to "everybody vax" is, of course, corporate profits. Between those two factors, they're putting recovered people on a crummy place.

The situation with my wife and I is very similar to yours. The only difference is that my wife and I have already had COVID.

Not at all similar.

Vaccines are not the only solution to addressing a pandemic. Rapid testing can be a very effective way to reduce the risk of transmission.

100% agree. See the early treatment thread and home testing thread. There's no reason why we can't hit the problem from every side. The authorities didn't allow immediate results, no doctor, no lab tests until recently. And even now, only a huge pharma has EUA, while several small upstarts have had their EUA applications ignored. It's the revolving door between government, industry, and NGO's.

Well since you already had Covid you are kind in a grey area between two groups.

It's only grey due to being twisted by unnatural forces. Night and day, if you ask me.

 

[ivinsfan]

And that's a logical position, IMO, because there's no real proof that a vaccine would improve your ability to fight off the disease that I've seen. The "everyone get vaccinated" push, in my opinion, is driven by a simplicity in public health messaging. IOW, they don't think we're smart enough to know that you and others recovered have immunity that could be better (antibodies to more parts of the virus than only the spike). So in attempting to simplify the message, they leave out some basic understanding, which results in 10 page threads. The second aspect to "everybody vax" is, of course, corporate profits. Between those two factors, they're putting recovered people on a crummy place.

Not at all similar.

100% agree. See the early treatment thread and home testing thread. There's no reason why we can't hit the problem from every side. The authorities didn't allow immediate results, no doctor, no lab tests until recently. And even now, only a huge pharma has EUA, while several small upstarts have had their EUA applications ignored. It's the revolving door between government, industry, and NGO's.

It's only grey due to being twisted by unnatural forces. Night and day, if you ask me.

Yep it's all one big conspiracy theory, or maybe not...

 

[NW-Bound]

Go read the thread about Alan's son and then tell me what you think. Covid's like roulette ...much more then the vaccine is.

The risk of contracting the virus, then having a serious health setback from it if not death, is a lot higher than the risk from the vaccines.

What's your point? They found the vaccine too fast?

It is indeed amazing that they found the vaccines so fast. I am grateful, as are many people.

And the testing of the vaccines was also accelerated, because with the pandemic they could have a lot of tests in a short time, with people dropping like flies.

Now, suppose someone found a new tetanus vaccine. How long will it take to verify its efficacy, given how rare tetanus cases are?

Not all nail wounds will cause tetanus, because most nails are not contaminated by tetanus bacteria. Tetanus is a very rare disease. In the U.S., the odds of getting tetanus are approximately 1.5 per million.

 

[MichaelB]

Thanks for an interesting conversation