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The key in my mind is the replacement psychology. A 120k model S owner is not likely to decide between a prius and a bmw 5 series. The bimmer will always win so the environmental improvement vs the 5 is what is driving the adoption.
True, a Tesla buyer is probably not in the market for a Prius, and the Tesla is probably a better environmental choice than other cars in the Tesla class.
But that's not what I'm concerned about, $100K cars are a pretty small market segment. I'm concerned about the claims of what EVs can do on a larger scale - something that some Tesla owners use to justify their 'early adopter' status.
... Probably the best thing people can do is: stop flying (air travel is really bad for per capita carbon), live in smaller houses/apartments, closer to work (or work remote), buy less packaged goods, preferably ones grown locally (again transport is really bad), etc. ...
Off topic from this thread, but a search might turn up our earlier debunking of this 'eat local' myth. In a nutshell, it isn't the miles that matter (speaking from an environmental viewpoint), it is the energy/resources used to deliver that food to your plate. Surprisingly, the inefficiencies in shipping relatively small amounts of food short distances have a large effect - shipping food in bulk long distances is far more efficient. Add in that if most people go even a fraction of a mile out of their way to attend a farmer's market (and still need to go to the main store for other produce), for just a few pounds of produce, the fuel/# of produce goes through the roof for 'eat local'.
You might like the varieties of produce, and the freshness and quality, and meeting the farmer, but 'eat local' probably is a big environmental loser - sorry. (Even worse if you drive an EV to get there!
Hey, I brought it back on topic!
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That said I loved your thorough investigation. I didn't know that stuff. I try to avoid driving as much as possible and family thankfully lives in walking distance of almost everything.
Thanks. I find it fascinating on two levels (which is why I spend as much time on it as I do). One is the tech/numbers level - I just like to try to understand this stuff, and try to break it down into figures we can wrap our heads around. Two, it's fascinating to me on a 'human behaviors' level - people seem to just want to believe what they want to believe, and really don't seem to want to know something if it conflicts with their preconceived notions.
I've never seen the value of trying to fool myself, and I think it's one of the things that have helped me have some success with finances. Seems many people I meet just 'want to believe' they can beat the market, or know something that others do not. I accept that I don't have any special knowledge like that, and it has kept me safe, I think.
I'm not in a very 'walkable' area, but we do try to consolidate trips as much as we can, so our miles are lower than average, and keep our cars a long time ( my 2000 Volvo S40 has ~ 73K miles) - that helps. A lot of my 'cheapskate' actions are more geared to me desire to not waste resources. I fix things so they don't go to a landfill, etc. I've never calculated the effect, but I have kept my water softener, furnace, DW, and washer/dryer lives extended probably 2x to 4x the life over what they would have been if I called a repair person, that likely would have recommended replacement over repair (which would probably be justified for them considering labor, liability, avoiding call backs, etc)
-ERD50