So what has your learnt from the past month?

[MichaelB]

In the past month I have learned two things -

- You gotta have a plan B

- I can still make a mean pot of chili.

 

[Dawg52]

And don't gloat if you have missed the mess, and don't be too hard on yourself if you got mauled by the bear.


Ha

But but....I enjoy banging my head against a wall. Gives me a buzz.

 

[NW-Bound]

Stupid people can make you lose money indirectly even when you do everything right.

So very true. I knew the home builders, and particularly financial companies were contributing to the bubble, and so tried to not own any. But they still hurt me.

How could I have made retribution against all those that contributed to this mess?

I could have shorted them! Never did in my life, and never did think about it. But thinking back I could have hedged against the drop of my holdings of "good companies" that I believe in, by shorting the "bad ones". No, not while they were rising up - never underestimate the size of the bubble - but when the news broke, and they were on the long slide down.

Am I too mean? Bad karma? This is really against my gentle nature.

 

[bbbamI]

I've realized that the many lean, tough years I have experienced made me stronger. I'm comfortable with my A/A and will stay with it. So let the good/bad times roll.....

I'm a survivor.

 

[ladelfina]

I learned that I should trust my instincts and not be swayed by the "conventional wisdom" including that found on this board.

Not to knock anyone here in particular, or knock the concept.. Just that there are so few people even tuned in to the idea of trying to live off of investments that I gave undue credence to a buy/hold philosophy that promises to even out the rough spots. This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90; I don't know what will befall us in the meantime. What will be the survivorship of currently-publicly-traded companies?

I saw this coming early in the year.. as if it were a mirage on the horizon that no one else saw, or only a few other 'deranged, tin-foil hat' people.

I didn't trust my own instincts that it was the mirage that was real, while it was everything else that was fake.

I feel dislocated.

---
I learned that it is a little bit foolish to be in the stock market if one does not have the experience or acumen or ba!!s to short.

I learned that the world is much crazier and chaotic than we have been led to believe.

commenter elsewhere:

Overseas on an OT subject, the world is really burning up! Reading about Hungary and all eastern Europe for that matter. This could spread to set western Europe on fire worse than it already is. Imagine, single mothers in Hungary were taking out 100% loans in Swiss currency! One woman saw a 10% increase in her mortgage in a week! Many in worse shape than her. Icelanders taking home mortgages in YEN! Amazing!

 

[harley]

This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90;

LOL! I've learned that the internet is populated by drama queens, just like the real world.

I've learned that it's different this time, just like it was all those other times.

I truly have learned to not buy into the conventional wisdom, on either the upswing or the downswing.

I've also learned that it's better to be lucky than good, and that when people are telling you how good they are (and this includes me), they are full of crap.

I've learned that I can predict downturns, having predicted both this one and the 2000 flameout, plus four or five others that never happened. Of course, I didn't do anything about them, so it didn't do me any good.

I've learned that the economy directly tracks my fantasy football team. I have the second highest point total in my league, but a 2-5-1 record. The US economic base is also strong, but it still sucks.

And I've learned that this too shall pass.

 

[clifp]

I learned that I should trust my instincts and not be swayed by the "conventional wisdom" including that found on this board.

Not to knock anyone here, or knock the concept.. Just that there are so few people even tuned in to the idea of trying to live off of investments that I gave undue credence to a buy/hold philosophy that promises to even out the rough spots. This is not a rough spot, imo, but a chasm, possibly a black hole. AA is virtually irrelevant. I imagine a portion of my holdings might recover in 30-40 years.. by the time I am 80 or 90; I don't know what will befall us in the meantime. What will be the survivorship of currently-publicly-traded companies?

I saw this coming early in the year.. as if it were a mirage on the horizon that no one else saw, or only a few 'deranged, tin-foil hat' people.

I didn't trust my own instincts that it was the mirage that was real, while it was everything else that was fake.

I learned that I'm not as good at spotting overvalued markets as thought.
I was convinced in 99 that tech stocks were overvalued. There was a glich in Schwab computers recently and for calculating performance it showed transaction I made back in Oct 1998 to short Yahoo at 188. I eventually close that trade out (at a loss ) but with Yahoo at $11 I feel vindicated. I had very little trouble getting out of tech stock in Jan 2000, despite the claims of many that Internet obsoleted traditional valuation.

For whatever reason I didn't see this train wreck coming. I think part of the reason was unlike the internet bubble where I was fortunate to be near ground zero, the house bubble seemed far removed. Honobob wasn't completely crazy housing prices in Hawaii are reasonably stable and foreclosure rates are low.

I don't think I called any of you people who foresaw this one idiots and if did I apologize. Ladelfina if it is any consolation, I appreciate the many posts you made pointing out the dangers of too much debt in the system.

Your posts were enough for me to at least ease my foot off my the accelerator enough that I slowed my stock buying mania down I bit. I feel like crashed into the track wall at 100 instead of 150 MPH, thanks to your posts so thanks.

 

[Linney]

I've learned that I'm a really lousy market timer. I bought several times during those "Blue Light specials" back in June. HA! I learned that I need to stick with what I do best -- DCA, year after year.

I've learned that while a 5 figure paper loss was mildly uncomfortable (2001-2003) a 6 figure paper loss is a heck of a lot more unconfortable. This paper loss is giving me a good education on how to handle my portfolio as I switch from accumulation to distribution over the next ten years. I'm thinking about how I would go about restructuring my portfolio for income and capital preservation, yet mindful of the need to outpace inflation.

I've learned that there are some great ideas on this board and some which... um... at least get me thinking I appreciate the poster who suggested switching one's 401k investment to all stock to take advantage of the low prices (thanks! implemented that suggestion two weeks ago) After all my fund purchases back in June, I was feeling too uncomfortable with rebalancing my 401k right now but I found that I was comfortable with directing all new contributions to funds on sale right now. DCA, yup, I'm good at that.

I've probably learned a lot more things than that but those are the ones which are top of mind right now.

--Linney

 

[chinaco]

I think one hard lesson we all may learn is one that was learned 100 years ago. We are assuming that what is happening now is like bear markets in the last 40 years.

We could all be financially ruined and not know it yet. This financial crisis has not been corrected. We could have many many business failures. If businesses begin to file bankruptcy, even your bonds may be worthless... or you get pennies on the $.

I am sticking with my original plan of diversified stocks and bonds... But I realize that I may loose 1/2 perhaps more of my savings (it could take 10 - 15 years to recover).

I normally have a lot of faith in our system... but we are going through something that no one understands. I do not think many American's grasp the desperate circumstances we find ourselves in. Many of us are assuming the system will correct itself... and it will. But how long it will take is the question. Looking at a worse case situation.. if it takes 15 to 20 years to recover... then in practical terms for most of us it is permanent.

 

[mathjak107]

i think we all learned those words in a prospectous ,MAY CONTAIN RISKS really does mean something

we learned taking risks may not always produce higher returns long term.

we learned history never repeats its self, only historians repeat themselves, each time things play out different enough to make each event very different from the time before


we learned my saying i always toughted on this board "its no longer about growing richer as we get older but its about not growing poorer has much truth.

it looks like index funds and most managed funds are about even in this downturn. my managed funds are slightly less down but both are pretty much crushed to the same levels. while the managed funds may have made defensive moves the slightly hiher expense negated that


lastly i learned that while following ray lucias bucket system may have been a little more conservative then i would have liked at times its a beautiful thing right now to know i have a plan in place that will not require me to sell equities for almost 15 years.....



i learned ill be working longer and not pulling the plug as early as i thought

 

[tryan]

I learned how to clean my chimney and start 2 propane furnaces (for more than a decade I've hired these things out).

Yeah, I know it's only a few hundred bucks - while I am down a few hundred grand - but I felt better doing it myself.

 

[mf15]

What I have learned from the 2000 bubble until now.
Lost quite a bit in that one.
1 Dont trust broker to protect your money.
2 From my neighbors current losses, dont trust financial advisor,
take what they say with a grain of salt.
3 AA does not seem to work that well.
4 Buy and hold also does not work well.
5. Markets now move really fast.
6. In this market there is always another shoe to fall.
7 Rule 1. Never loose the principal.
8. Rule 2. Read rule 1.

I am new here and will be early retired in 3 days, was VRIPed,due
to old line private company being sold to investment company.

I have learned quite a bit from this and another board, but I will
take what I have learned with another grain of salt.
Old Mike

 

[ls99]

Can't say I've learned anything from this recent mess.

Having been in LBYM mode since early teens, the ups of the past seemed extravagant. This current financial downturn is closer to what I was familiar with growing up.

Besides, no lines at the gas stations, or alternate days for that go dino juice.

No bread lines, no trekking to the bank with cash to receive the newly devalued money ten times the denomination and half the value.
To paraphrase my favorite slogan from my long ago Aleutian days (originally referring to the clouds, now to the economy): "I think its lifting" other guy; why? "can't get much lower".

The habit and comforts of LBYM makes all this an amusing spectacle.

 

[ladelfina]

ls99, the LBYM mentality of everyone here will make this downturn easier on us than on many others. That is one (relatively) positive thing to keep in mind.

 

[P.S.]

And I learned that I don't have to hoard all my money----......so in a weird way, this may actually encourage me not to be so frugal!

this is me too... in the next month, I plan to buy furniture from here: Thos. Moser : Vita Horizontal Dresser

i learned i have zero tolerance to risk.
i also learned i need to trust my instincts. this has served me well in my job, but i wasn't sure of myself with financial markets. i've been following finance since early teens. of course, i still don't know but a little, but i am more trusting of my ability to believe what seems logical to me.
fortunately, we actually had less than 20% in when things started to fall (that I kept as a hedge against my uncertainty), although every time I posted on this board or came to read I felt real dumb.

 

[unclemick]

Hey the Saint's won in London. Now that I think about it this is way more fun, at least so far than 1966 - 1982.

I wonder if I should get me a new shotgun, some more gold and platinium coins(maybe some new Panda's) and try the lastest in freeze dryed food.

Glad I know what I know now and glad I'm on full auto with a Target fund so I don't have to strain myself with a lot of thinking(legend in my own mind stuff).

Fun being on a relative scale and with the fond hope this little difficulty doesn't last as long as the above 1966 - 1982 period of er flatness(with dips).

heh heh heh -no such thing as a free lunch. Rats!

 

[Eagle43]

I've learned that the Eagle is a Chicken.

When the Market was up I prated about how I would buy if/when the market hit 11,500. Didn't do it. Still haven't bought anything or changed my allocation. Cluck. Cluck.

I learned that pensions combined with social security are good. I expect the market to return to the golden days of yesteryear and I have the capability to wait on it. Further, the tried and true LBYM principle ensures that capability.

I learned that asset allocation works well if you do it right before everything blows up. I've learned that you must take a realistic look at the worst that could happen and then do what you can to prevent it. Don't trade with money that you can't afford to lose. Play defense, especially if you're retired.

I've learned that past performance does not predict future results... but I knew that.

 

[NW-Bound]

I've learned that the Eagle is a Chicken.

"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines." Anon.

Nor do chicken!

PS. I am also proud to be a chicken. No, make it a rooster.

 

[Urchina]

I've learned:

• I have nerves of steel, and so does DH (we're at 80/20 equities/bonds and have experienced a 35% drop so far...).
• Having cash ready to invest at a market downturn is really nice. We didn't have enough this time around to invest as much as we'd like and so will be putting money into a MMF pronto.
• Being young helps during a bear.
• Never underestimate the psychological power of an emergency fund.
• Most folks (us included) can't pick stocks or time the market worth beans. Indexing the total market is where we're heading.

And I was reminded:

The fact that I've got money in the market puts me among the fortunate. Yeah, we lost a bunch of our retirement money, but at least we had it to lose.

 

[unclemick]

"Eagles may soar, but weasels don't get sucked into jet engines." Anon.

Nor do chicken!

PS. I am also proud to be a chicken. No, make it a rooster.

My first lead engineer at Boeing said his first job was tossing chickens into the jet engines - until the Humane Society got wind and made them put them to sleep first.

SOooo - does a sleeping Eagle count? I mean even if I don't look those Vanguard computers are rebalancing my Target Retirement - right?

heh heh heh - does a bear---nevermind. .

 

[DblDoc]

Well after today I learned that volatility works both ways!

Dow +10.88%
Nasdaq + 9.53%
SP500 + 10.79%
VEU + 12.39%

DD

 

[Khan]

My first lead engineer at Boeing said his first job was tossing chickens into the jet engines - until the Humane Society got wind and made them put them to sleep first.

SOooo - does a sleeping Eagle count? I mean even if I don't look those Vanguard computers are rebalancing my Target Retirement - right?

heh heh heh - does a bear---nevermind. .

NASA Chicken Gun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[REWahoo]

NASA Chicken Gun - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Urban legend - and a darn good one!

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun for the purpose of launching dead chickens. It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshield of airline jet, military jet, or the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum traveling velocity. The idea being, that it would simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl, and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough to endure high-speed bird strikes.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. However, upon firing the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two, and embedded itself into the back wall of the cabin.

Horrified and puzzled, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment, along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions.

The NASA scientists sent back a brief response: "Thaw the chicken."

 

[unclemick]

Urban legend - and a darn good one!

Scientists at NASA have developed a gun for the purpose of launching dead chickens. It is used to shoot a dead chicken at the windshield of airline jet, military jet, or the space shuttle, at that vehicle's maximum traveling velocity. The idea being, that it would simulate the frequent incidents of collisions with airborne fowl, and therefore determine if the windshields are strong enough to endure high-speed bird strikes.

British engineers, upon hearing of the gun, were eager to test it on the windshields of their new high-speed trains. However, upon firing the gun, the engineers watched in shock as the chicken shattered the windshield, smashed through the control console, snapped the engineer's backrest in two, and embedded itself into the back wall of the cabin.

Horrified and puzzled, the engineers sent NASA the results of the experiment, along with the designs of the windshield, and asked the NASA scientists for any suggestions.

The NASA scientists sent back a brief response: "Thaw the chicken."

heh heh heh - very good!

 

[NW-Bound]

Shuck! I forgot chicken got plucked.

Hey, it rythmes.