Actually, with cumulative lotteries like Powerball (which built up jackpots over weeks and weeks, but only pay off current week ticket holders) the "odds" can be pretty good. E.g., 40 million tickets sold on an $80 million jackpot equals an average return of $2 on your $1 bet. Of course, the odds are still 40 million to 1......
Success...
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MasterBlaster
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Jerryo:
-You missed the point.
Actually the odds are not that. Assuming that you will be the only winner (keep in mind that for the big pots more people play) you still have to give uncle same 35 percent of the total in income taxes. You also probably want all of the money up front so maybe you'll get 40-50 percent of the total rather than an annuity.
At best you'll get around $26M after taxes in a lump sum.
so $26M for a 1:80M chance to win.
Is that a good bet ?
- Also you need to think about how long the lottery would last if they are selling $40m worth of tickets and giving away $80M
-You missed the point.
Actually the odds are not that. Assuming that you will be the only winner (keep in mind that for the big pots more people play) you still have to give uncle same 35 percent of the total in income taxes. You also probably want all of the money up front so maybe you'll get 40-50 percent of the total rather than an annuity.
At best you'll get around $26M after taxes in a lump sum.
so $26M for a 1:80M chance to win.
Is that a good bet ?
- Also you need to think about how long the lottery would last if they are selling $40m worth of tickets and giving away $80M
MikeD
Full time employment: Posting here.
SteveR said:
The Mega Millions lottery in Va, Md, and now Ca (and some other states) says that the odds of winning are 1 in 175 million. I still play. I like thinking about winning even when it's only 12 million bucks. From what I've seen, if you take the cash option, after taxes it's worth about one third of the amount they advertise. I only buy one $1.00 ticket per play. So that's $104.00 per year.
Mike D.
wabmester
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jerryo said:
Exactly. The trick here is to buy every possible combination. I.e., buy $40M worth of tickets, and you are guaranteed to be a winner. You just have to hope it's not a split pot.
Wealth is so relative ... what is a fortune to one person is a pittance to another. I have enough to live comfortably when I do pull the plug (and the days are counting). That's enough. I actually feel sorry for those who have great wealth -- or even relative wealth vis-a-vis their friends and colleagues -- and want more.
retire@40
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playaman said:
It makes you wonder if they ever thought of how short life is and how important it is to enjoy every day as if it's your last. What is even worse is when the extremely wealthy put earning that extra dollar ahead of their family, especially their kids. I've seen plenty of wealthy career-oriented couples abandon their new babies with a nanny instead of raising them like real parents should.
There actually was a case a few years ago when some (Asian) syndicate tried to buy up every lottery ticket for a powerball payoff (with teams of purchasers assigned number combinations). They got caught, I think (though it's hard to see why what they did was illegal).
tryan
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Success is how one deals with failure.
How a "success" thread turned "lottery" is beyond me .... never played the lottery. Don't want to win and be known as "the lucky b*stard".
Success is not luck.
How a "success" thread turned "lottery" is beyond me .... never played the lottery. Don't want to win and be known as "the lucky b*stard".
Success is not luck.
SteveR
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jerryo said:
The odds are not based on the number of tickets sold as in a drawing, but on the cumulative probability of 5 independent events (numbered balls) coming up in specific order. A five ball lottery winner has a 80M to 1 chance of all 5 of his numbers coming up on one ticket. The more balls the higher the odds, the fewer balls the lower the odds. It has nothing to do with the number of tickets sold.
wabmester
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SteveR said:
The odds are a function of the total numbers of balls in the pool and the number of balls drawn. I don't think the order matters.
I only played a couple of times when the game was first introduced in CA. If I remember correctly, they selected 6 balls from a pool of 49, so your odds were 1 in 49*48*47*46*45*44/(6!) ~= 14M. You divide by (6!) to remove the selection order as a factor.
SteveR
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WAB, I stand corrected. The site I got the 80M:1 from is incorrect. The correct number is as you stated. Here is the full story on a 6 ball 49 number lotto jackpot odds.
There are a total of 13,983,816 different groups of six numbers which could be drawn from the set {1, 2, ... , 49}. To see this we observe that there are 49 possibilities for the first number drawn, following which there are 48 possibilities for the second number, 47 for the third, 46 for the fourth, 45 for the fifth, and 44 for the sixth. If we multiply the numbers 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 we get 10,068,347,520. However, each possible group of six numbers (combination) can be drawn in different ways depending on which number in the group was drawn first, which was drawn second, and so on. There are 6 choices for the first, 5 for the second, 4 for the third, 3 for the fourth, 2 for the fifth, and 1 for the sixth. Multiply these numbers out to arrive at 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720. We then need to divide 10,068,347,520 by 720 to arrive at the figure 13,983,816 as the number of different groups of six numbers (different picks). Since all numbers are assumed to be equally likely and since the probability of some number being drawn must be one, it follows that each pick of six numbers has a probability of 1/13,983,816 = 0.00000007151. This is roughly the same probability as obtaining 24 heads in succession when flipping a fair coin!"
Source:
http://icarus.mcmaster.ca/fred/Lotto/
There are a total of 13,983,816 different groups of six numbers which could be drawn from the set {1, 2, ... , 49}. To see this we observe that there are 49 possibilities for the first number drawn, following which there are 48 possibilities for the second number, 47 for the third, 46 for the fourth, 45 for the fifth, and 44 for the sixth. If we multiply the numbers 49 x 48 x 47 x 46 x 45 x 44 we get 10,068,347,520. However, each possible group of six numbers (combination) can be drawn in different ways depending on which number in the group was drawn first, which was drawn second, and so on. There are 6 choices for the first, 5 for the second, 4 for the third, 3 for the fourth, 2 for the fifth, and 1 for the sixth. Multiply these numbers out to arrive at 6 x 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 720. We then need to divide 10,068,347,520 by 720 to arrive at the figure 13,983,816 as the number of different groups of six numbers (different picks). Since all numbers are assumed to be equally likely and since the probability of some number being drawn must be one, it follows that each pick of six numbers has a probability of 1/13,983,816 = 0.00000007151. This is roughly the same probability as obtaining 24 heads in succession when flipping a fair coin!"
Source:
http://icarus.mcmaster.ca/fred/Lotto/
SLC Tortfeasor
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playaman said:
"What can be added to the happiness of a man who is in health, out of debt, and has a clear conscience?" -- Adam Smith
