The Cryptocurrency Thread

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Green Bay over Seattle. Shutout....first time in 10 years they have been held to no points.

Time to shut this thread down.

1) Don't feed the trolls
2) The IGNORE function is easy to use and provides instant relief.
Yes, it was a valiant attempt at civility about a controversial topic. Impossible to keep trolling out of this subject.

I'm signing off (time is much too short for me). I do have a mining thread, but it will probably shut down if I post there with updates.

Take care.
 
Bitcoin speculation

I view crypto currency as speculation - but I mean that literally. It may become worthless or it perform dramatically well. Both of those possibilities are in the future, and can be discussed now - but there can't be real certainty for people who favor or dislike it.

I'm putting money in it, but that's money I can afford to lose. Previously GBTC was the main investment on the stock market, but recently there's BITO. BITO tracks Bitcoin futures... and yes, there's a Bitcoin futures market.
 
Do you recall the 2008 financial crisis by any chance? :LOL:

In almost all the examples I provided in that long list of US bank collapses, these were precipitated by withdrawals as those with funds panicked.

Wikipedia has a list of bank runs worldwide since the 1930s and even older. I'm going to ignore the foreign runs because they generally related to unsophisicated bank regulations (though not always.)

In the United States there have only been two bank runs since 1930: Washington Mutual and Wachovia, both casualties of the 2008 financial crisis. Again, I am ignoring mortgage lenders like Countrywide and IndyMac and investment firms like Bear Stearns and Lehman because they were not subject to the same banking regulations as depository banks.

Office of Thrift Supervision reglators seized Washington Mutual when the "run" reached about 5% of deposits. This is evidence of the strong regulatory framework that existed even before the crisis and controls and capital requirements are much stronger now. Wachovia was seized the next day after a 1% run.

While I accept wikipedia categorizing these as "runs," they are hardly the scary spectres that should cause anyone to avoid US banks in favor of cryptocurrency! It's almost as ridiculous as saying everyone should have another planet to live on because aliens might invade earth!

As for "moneyprinting," I explained upthread how the US money supply relative to GDP has been pretty stable for at least a century. Sure, it has fluctuated some as the Fed used it as a policy tool to deal with widescale economic challenges but it is far from alarming.

Many people, including me, scratch their heads as to why all the loose money after 2008 did not lead to inflation. I chalk it up to evidence that the economy was in worse shape than anyone thought and it needed the stimulus just to recover. You cite decline of the USD yet I can buy yen, AUD, CAD, etc. for about what I paid 40 years ago. Yes, bread and milk cost more but if the cause were "money printing in the United States" you'd see it in exchange rates.

During Covid much of the US and world economy shut down for a long period. That led to a few trillion $ in contraction. So refilling that with a few trillion in stimulus should also not be alarming. The Fed stands ready to start tapping the brakes as soon as the data supports it. Even the announcement of taper and interest rate hikes will probably be evident in the next set of data released. I do expect a few years of ~6% inflation for reasons explained in another thread but that has to do with the disruption, not anything the Fed or any government is doing.

Bitcoin has been a great sepeculative instrument in the past and may have some utility to criminals and subjects of dictators. But for people like me, it has little attraction. I don't see myself using bitcoin to buy groceries or furniture...ever. I don't rule out buying a small speculative position if it drops in value again by 60-75% but that is where my interest ends. It is not an investment that one can analyze and make an informed decision. It is a crapshoot. (And I've played craps so that is not at all a judgement, just an observation and anyone buying bitcoin is gambling not investing.)
 
The crypto thread is like a club where all the members get to get her to annoy each other.
 
To 2nd attempt - All bank collapses are preceded by runs (ie - more money being pulled out than can be satisfied by existing money or new funds). This is how every single of the bank collapses in the long list I sent you occurred. This is plain common sense. (Now if you literally mean people lining up with long lines around the block all lined up the counter wanting to withdraw paper money, I'm not sure how often that happened, but times have changed since back in the 1930's - bank runs now occur almost entirely electronically and via the application of legal mechanisms and banks not being able to meet operational capital adequacy, as opposed to mom and pops literally lining up to take money out of their savings accounts). :LOL:

Money printing devalues the value of the exiting amount of money in circulation. This is an immutable and basic mathematical and economic concept.

We have had MASSIVE inflation since 2008. Take a look at the increase in the nominal value of companies and of real estate as to the effect of all the money that was printed. you will see a nice upward curve in both from 2008 to now, and indeed an even bigger upward curve since covid money printing. (Money printing is not just a US phenomenon by the way. Its global, which is why you see global asset prices rising in nominal terms in constant currency). Bitcoin functions as a defense against that. This was remarkably well articulated by economist and investment strategist Lyn Alden in the clip I suggested you listen to. (There is a separate thread I mentioned where you can discuss how to measure inflation, and whether official CPI numbers are an accurate representation of true inflation. In summary is a matter of GIGO. Official CPI numbers are only a function of what variables you input).

As to how to analyze Bitcoin as an investment, I have explained that numerous times already. Again, all you really need to do is make a call on the likelihood of future demand globally increasing, or decreasing, That is the process regardless of whether you personally would like to own some or not. For example, I don't personally eat ice-cream, but that would not stop me investing in an ice-cream company if I believed it has a unique product for which there will be increasing demand. Nor would my personal views on ice-cream change whether an ice-cream company would in itself be a good investment. No one here is doubting that you personally don't like Bitcoin. You have made that very clear to all. No debate there. However the discussion, with respect, is not about you. Rather its about Bitcoin. And Bitcoin doesn't care what you think of it. It simply keeps doing what it does.

As for not buying Bitcoin because you are not able to value it, yet saying you would consider buying Bitcoin if it fell x%, this seems logically inconsistent. Would a drop of 50% enable you to value it any better that if it increased 50%? What is really going on here is that you are likely worried that you may be "too late" or "buying at the peak". This is a natural and common human emotion, but if you think about it, this is logically inconsistent with your view on not buying what you can't value.
 
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Part of the problem is that US lacks a narrative for currency devaluation. Dollar has been devalued less than rest of world currency. We have little experience and no alternative to fiat. Until the internet brought bitcoin. Prior to that, the free silver movement pitting east coast bankers against western states hard money was the last currency battle.

At this point I like Solana, Tezos, Theta, Avalanche, Filecoin, PolkaDot, .... much better than bitcoin. BTC value proposition is strictly fiat empire collapse. Most folks just won't bite on that. FOREX is more gambling than investing.

The decentralized finance folks with Web 3 are integrating useful functions with the currency as placeholder. DeFi currency behaves more like a nonprofit ecosystem, with the value of the currency predicated on the utility the entire system of integrated applications provides to customers and users. No use case equals no value. So the currency ends up like a stock for the ecosystem.

Tezos, or something like that, will ultimately replace the single warehouse in NJ that holds all the paper stock certificates. The exchanges and brokerages are digital, but the foundation is still paper. At some point, that will change. Blockchain defi tech will be there.
 
Tezos, or something like that, will ultimately replace the single warehouse in NJ that holds all the paper stock certificates. The exchanges and brokerages are digital, but the foundation is still paper. At some point, that will change. Blockchain defi tech will be there.
Why would anyone replace what works well with some flaky blockchain ledger system? Wishful thinking, never going to happen.
 
^^^^^ I hope it does happen. It’s the current centralized, hack-prone system we have now that is the problem.
 
^^^^^ I hope it does happen. It’s the current centralized, hack-prone system we have now that is the problem.
For securities settlement the system is very secure and works very well. Crypto looking for a problem to solve where there is no problem.
 
I was out to lunch with some colleagues today and someone made an interesting conjecture that I had not thought of:

The subject of marijuana legalization came up. One of the guys was talking about some crazy things people are doing snce they cannot put their legal marijuana profits in the Federal banking system because they would be subject to confiscation (because MJ is only legal in some states but is still illegal under Federal law. Yes, makes no sense but for those outside the US, it is just a strange situation right now.)

Anyway, the guy then said that the money is now going heavily into bitcoin. He claimed if you plot the growth of bitcoin with the growth of legal marijuana profits there is a clear relationship. I have no idea if this is true but plan to research it. If true it is not good news for bitcoin since legalization will kill demand for bitcoin overnight. Why would marijuana businesses use bitcoin when they could suddenly have access to the US banking system to accept checks and credit cards and otherwise eliminate what is undoubtedly an expensive friction for their businesses?
 
I had a quick search for marijuana market cap. 30 bill vs 3 trill for crypto. Is that enough to drive the market?

Interesting angle.
 
Why would anyone replace what works well with some flaky blockchain ledger system? Wishful thinking, never going to happen.



This is funny. Bring me my newspaper so I can check the stock prices etc
 
To 2nd attempt - All bank collapses are preceded by runs
No, they are not. Runs cause a liquidity (ability to meet immediate cash needs) problem. In the US this can always be solved by the Fed. Most bank failures result from solvency (longer term excess of liabilities over assets) issues or from government action taken because of fundamental mismanagement that led to the problems. The solution to this is new management that knows what they are doing through a "forced" sale. This is what happened with Wachovia and WashMo in 2008. Interesting point here - the ONLY two runs in the US is the last 90 years or so did NOT lead to bank collapses. No bank collapse here was caused by a run.

Money printing devalues the value of the exiting amount of money in circulation. This is an immutable and basic mathematical and economic concept.
Not necessarily in a growing economy. Your claim seems logical but is not universally accepted by economists.

We have had MASSIVE inflation since 2008.
Inflation is the rise in prices consumers pay, not the values of companies. Are you paying massively more for bread and computers since 2008? I doubt it.

As to how to analyze Bitcoin as an investment...
Common stock is a claim on the future profits of a company and the value of common stock is the discounted value of future profits.
A bond's value is the discouned value of future interest payments.
What is the simple, one-sentence way to calculate the value of bitcoin? No subjective "what do you think?" allowed.


As for not buying Bitcoin because you are not able to value it, yet saying you would consider buying Bitcoin if it fell x%, this seems logically inconsistent.
You are absolutely right that my statement is illogical. I will almost certainly never buy bitcoin. Happy to do what I can to keep the price low so you can buy more cheaply.
 
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I had a quick search for marijuana market cap. 30 bill vs 3 trill for crypto. Is that enough to drive the market?

Interesting angle.

Not in my opinion. Like I said, just a claim a colleague made that I have not looked into. 1% does not seem to be enough to have an impact.
 
Part of the problem is that US lacks a narrative for currency devaluation. Dollar has been devalued less than rest of world currency. We have little experience and no alternative to fiat. Until the internet brought bitcoin. Prior to that, the free silver movement pitting east coast bankers against western states hard money was the last currency battle.

Just because you have India in your username...

I was in India in 1997, 24 years ago. My USD bought about 35 rupees then. Today it would buy about 75 rupees. So relative to the USD, the rupee has devalued by about 50% in 24 years.

Stopped in Korea on the way home and got about 1000 won/USD vs 1180 today. EUR/USD is about where it was when the euro started over 20 years ago. Lived in Europe around 1981 - the currency of the country where I lived has declined about 30% in 40 years. No massive problems here.
 
Why would anyone replace what works well with some flaky blockchain ledger system? Wishful thinking, never going to happen.
"never"? What is your source for predicting the future for the rest of time?

The blockchain is a continuous record going back to it's inception, secured by a massive amount of computing power. It is not "flaky".
 
Crypto on sale. Who is buying?

I'm nibbling away, but no more than usual - just as part of my regular savings / asset allocation plan. I currently allocate 3% of all monthly profits from various income earning ventures to Sats. Slow and steady accumulate, for long term hodl.
 
An nice DCA. I almost bought more today but put it off. Will look again tomorrow.
 
I expect a few more Bitcoin ETFs soon, after ProShares got approval for it's ETF. What I really want to see is an Ethereum (ETH) futures ETF. There's numerous crypto currencies based on ETH's blockchain, but I don't think that many use BTC. I'm expecting at some point, ETH displaces BTC. So a cheaper investment than ETHE (2.5% annual fee!) would be welcome.
 
A pretty cool development, yesterday Square released a whitepaper outlining a protocol for a Decentralized Bitcoin Exchange.

Essentially this is an exchange that operates outside of any 3rd party (including Government) control. Its another great step of Satoshi's vision of entirely replacing banks as intermediaries, and taking the power of money out of the Government and putting it into the hands of the people with a view to fostering global equality of financial transaction freedom.

Access to Bitcoin and the freedoms and utility it offers is still beyond the reach of everyday people (or at least not easy easy as it could be).

Right now, for many "laymen", getting access to Sats generally involves going through a
centralized exchange. That in turn then requires multiple asset transfers and results in transaction fees each step of the way. These are a prohibitive (or at least less than optimum) barrier to entry for people as they consider switching over from the fiat system to Bitcoin. Such processes arguably also enable established powers (banks and Governments) to prioritize the rate of Bitcoin adoption in accordance with the existing power hierarchy (Ie Governments, politicians, banks, super wealthy, HNWs, hedge funds, etc).

Better and easier access to Bitcoin needs to be provided to the average person. The Square whitepaper proposal enables "a better bridge into the future".

For those who are technically inclined see: https://tbdex.io/whitepaper.pdf

Actually nice and easy to read, so don't be put off!

The protocol makes no opinion on a person's identity as a feature or consequence of transactions. Instead, it allows counterparties to negotiate and establish the minimum information acceptable for the exchange. Moreover, it provides the infrastructure necessary to create a ubiquity of on-ramps and off-ramps directly between the fiat and crypto financial systems without the need for centralized intermediaries and trust brokers. This makes Bitcoin and related decentralized financial services more accessible to everyone, globally, on an equal basis, and is one more step towards preparing and strengthening the BTC ecosystem for monetary system switchover.
 
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Update on El Salvador who was the first sovereign nation in the world to adopt Sats as official legal tender earlier this year. They have now announced a USD 1 billion Government Bitcoin backed bond issuance.

Essentially they are creating a vehicle to convert cash over to Bitcoin, the bet being that the decline in the USD to BTC will be greater than the coupon rate they pay on the bond.

(So for example if the coupon rate is 5%pa, and BTC grows at 20%pa, they are increasing their purchasing power (as measured in USD) by 15%pa. Historically BTC has increased over 200%pa in value to USD over the last 10 years, so a great bet provided this trend continues.)

Meanwhile, we had Blockstream executive Samson Mow stated that we see over 100 countries issuing bitcoin-backed bonds eventually (with the game theory being that there will be a rush as to who goes first, with the "first-mover" obviously having the advantage. We may well see similar moves next from other countries in the Latin America region, or possibly small nations in the South Pacific - Cook Island, Vanuatu, Samoa, Fiji etc. Watch also for announcements from Miami and New York who are also competing to be first movers in fiat to BTC conversion vehicles.

The implications for us, as investors, is to figure out how such developments impact Bitcoin price. We know supply is fixed, hence the future demand side of the equation is what will dictate price.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rat...coin-city-backed-by-bitcoin-bonds-2021-11-21/
 
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That’s really too bad. Given El Salvador’s smothering social problems, I feel sorry for its poor taxpayers who are going to be on the hook if Alexander the Great II can’t quite deliver on bitcoin-backed El Salvadoran bonds issued to make El Salvador the world’s financial center by building a new high tech city in one of the hemisphere’s poorest and most dysfunctional countries, powered on volcano energy. (The President said all those things and more in the article.).

What is the market for such a bond? What could possibly go wrong with such a maniacal Bitcoin Bro as a head of state? It seems a clear reputation risk for the public acceptance of Bitcoin itself, too.
 
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That’s really too bad. Given El Salvador’s smothering social problems, I feel sorry for its poor taxpayers who are going to be on the hook if Alexander the Great II can’t quite deliver on bitcoin-backed El Salvadoran bonds issued to make El Salvador the world’s financial center by building a new high tech city in one of the hemisphere’s poorest and most dysfunctional countries, powered on volcano energy. (The President said all those things and more in the article.).

What is the market for such a bond? What could possibly go wrong with such a maniacal Bitcoin Bro as a head of state? It seems a clear reputation risk for the public acceptance of Bitcoin itself, too.

Time well tell. Its a bold move.

For now, the Government's adoption has benefitted the country, both in terms of the increase in value of its reserve assets, as well as the inflow from BTC investors and fintech companies globally. The BTC powered Lightening Network has massively reduced the cost of foreign remittances in and out of El Salvador. And they are now seeing an increasing number of people in country becoming employees in IT tech industry. They are also seeing a real pick up in people from overseas buying property (paid for in Sats).

As for the market for these bonds, it comes down to how much yield an investor is prepared to accept for the return, factoring in perceived risk.

So to me, I view this as a positive development both for El Salvador and for Bitcoin. If they pull it off, it would show that investors clearly have faith in a bond backed by Sats (meaning essentially that they believe Sats will hold, or increase, their value over time).

As for Bitcoin per se, it doesn't care who, or what, adopts it. It simply keeps performing in a perfectly neutral way, according to its algorithm ever since the day of its conception (the immutable certainty of which is of course is an important utility it offers in the field of finance). So that extent, any increase in adoption is a positive in relation to future price.
 
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As for the market for these bonds, it comes down to how much yield an investor is prepared to accept for the return, factoring in perceived risk.
Latin American countries don't have a great track record for paying back bonds they issue so I would be concerned about the details.

Even if I believed bitcoin would keep going up, the backing is worthless if the government does not hold adequate bitcoin in reserve for the entire life of the bond. This means they get nothing at issueance and effectively only gain from being able to spend down reserves when (if) the increase in price of bitcoin is realized. This means the bond is a drag on their economy initially which is not something they can afford. It seems more like a stunt than sound government policy.
 
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