Updates on COVID 19

[audreyh1]

Here's the actual chart. Those small vertical gray lines show how long the bar would be if it matched the population distribution. Both Latino and Other have more cases than would be expected. (But I suspect that "Other" is often used because there's no option for "we didn't ask".)

Wow, the Latino segment is shocking! It certainly helps explain some of the Texas hotspots. And I suppose Florida as well.

There is definitely a socioeconomic factor involved - a lot employed in low wage “essential” jobs with little protection, among other factors.

 

[Corporateburnout]

There is definitely a socioeconomic factor involves - a lot employed in low wage “essential” jobs with little protection, among other factors.

Pretty much in line with our state. The overall positivity rate is 1.4% but in ten lower socioeconomic communities it's over 5%. The difficulty the state is having in these communities is that many workers who live in small crowded apartments are unable to quarantine when infected spreading the virus to other family members.

 

[Lsbcal]

Wow, the Latino segment is shocking! It certainly helps explain some of the Texas hotspots. And I suppose Florida as well.

There is definitely a socioeconomic factor involved - a lot employed in low wage “essential” jobs with little protection, among other factors.

Not surprising to me. In our county which has a lot of grape growing and hospitality industry something like 70% of the cases were Latino.

 

[Bongleur]

I recently read a study using a dozen or so types of mask materials & styles, and they found that the bandana actually increased the number of small particles - somehow that weave/cloth is breaking up the large gobs of spit.

 

[harllee]

I recently read a study using a dozen or so types of mask materials & styles, and they found that the bandana actually increased the number of small particles - somehow that weave/cloth is breaking up the large gobs of spit.

If it was the Duke University study it was actually the gaiter style mask that you wear around your neck and pull up over your face that was worse than wearing no mask at all. The bandana was found not to be very good at blocking particles but it was not as bad as the gaiter style. The best was the N95, then the surgical mask and then the double layer cotton mask which was found to be pretty good.

 

[JoeWras]

Pretty much in line with our state. The overall positivity rate is 1.4% but in ten lower socioeconomic communities it's over 5%. The difficulty the state is having in these communities is that many workers who live in small crowded apartments are unable to quarantine when infected spreading the virus to other family members.

The DHS link at the top of this page mentions this family transmission aspect. "Most transmission events occur in the home, but outbreaks can occur in any crowded setting, particularly indoors"

In this case, "home" may mean many men from different families sharing a crowded apartment. And I'm going to keep mentioning the crowded vehicles too.

In most cases they have little choice in the matter even if they do everything "right."

BTW, this is not a unique situation to America. Germany is struggling with outbreaks in their immigrant population. The languages and ethnicity are different, but the problem is the same. Here's one of many articles on this, in English:

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-pandemic-poses-threat-to-undocumented-migrants/a-53425104

Social distancing not an option
The clinic Andocken, meanwhile, is planning to remain open, despite the pandemic.
"Who else is there to help all these people?" asks doctor Teresa Steinmüller, pointing to several especially vulnerable patients. Like a pregnant woman from Ghana, who tested HIV positive. She was advised to keep a distance to other people, as a COVID-19 infection would likely put her life at risk.
But social distancing is not an option for her, says nurse Maike Jansen: Members of her local church take turns in giving her a bed for a night. She sleeps wherever there is a bed for her and has no chance to limit her contacts or stay at a distance.
"She put on a brave face when we spoke to her, " Maike Jansen recalls. "But at some point she just broke into tears."

 

[Sunset]

Wow, the Latino segment is shocking! It certainly helps explain some of the Texas hotspots. And I suppose Florida as well.

There is definitely a socioeconomic factor involved - a lot employed in low wage “essential” jobs with little protection, among other factors.

I think there is also cultural socialization factors involved.

Our Latino neighbors have for months held weekly family gatherings of one type or another at their house.
Lots of people, all trying distance to some degree and some wearing masks, but still crowded.
The weird thing is, a couple of months ago it was a funeral gathering, but I guess not from Covid-19 as it didn't decrease the later gatherings.

 

[Birdie Num Nums]

Saw this post on another site just now (it's a "political" site, so I won't link to that web page):

The company that was working with HHS with the COVID numbers [TeleTracking] is now saying they are no longer involved with numbers and that the CDC will be handling the numbers from now on. Congress wanted information from the company on how they got the job since they had never done anything like this and they were messing up the numbers being reported. The company told Congress they had NDAs with the government and couldn't talk about it, so now the CDC will be in charge again.

Apparently the source for this post was the WSJ.


Edit: Here's a link to another source: Talking Points Memo.com

 

[audreyh1]

Here is a link to a Wall Street Journal article about the policy reversal https://www.wsj.com/articles/troubled-covid-19-data-system-returning-to-cdc-11597945770 It’s worth reading in depth if you have access. Searching on the title may work Troubled Covid-19 Data System Returning to CDC

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is reversing course on a change to the way hospitals report critical information on the coronavirus pandemic to the government, returning the responsibility for data collection to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
......
The reversal comes after increasing reports that the new system has been plagued by delays and inconsistencies in data since being implemented in July. Among other things, certain key statistics, such as inpatient beds occupied by Covid-19 patients, were updated only once a week, rather than daily or multiple times a week, as under the CDC system.

This system apparently drives distribution of critical medicines such as remsdesivir between states, as well as management of hospital resources within hospital regions.

I just have to say, jerking this kind of stuff around in the middle of a pandemic!

 

[audreyh1]

CDC Chief says daily Covid deaths (which have been averaging at least 1000 per day since July 27) should start to fall next week. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/cdc...rus-deaths-could-start-to-fall-next-week.html

It certainly seems like it’s been long enough!

 

[rk911]

^^^

+1

+2

 

[audreyh1]

I think there is also cultural socialization factors involved.

Our Latino neighbors have for months held weekly family gatherings of one type or another at their house.
Lots of people, all trying distance to some degree and some wearing masks, but still crowded.
The weird thing is, a couple of months ago it was a funeral gathering, but I guess not from Covid-19 as it didn't decrease the later gatherings.

For sure - family socializing with multiple generations is a big part of their life, as well as living in multigenerational fMily housing situations.

 

[JoeWras]

CDC Chief says daily Covid deaths (which have been averaging at least 1000 per day since July 27) should start to fall next week. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/20/cdc...rus-deaths-could-start-to-fall-next-week.html

It certainly seems like it’s been long enough!

NC was doing great until they opened the colleges. That process has caused significant spikes and a leveling of our progress.

Most colleges have given up on the idea of in person and are going on-line this fall.

At least they gave it the old college try.

 

[audreyh1]

Yeah - I guess the college try must have seemed obligatory.

Spikes. Unfortunately if students are going back home - and where would most of them go - it just guarantees increased community spread in numerous widespread locations.

 

[Bongleur]

If it was the Duke University study it was actually the gaiter style mask that you wear around your neck and pull up over your face that was worse than wearing no mask at all. The bandana was found not to be very good at blocking particles but it was not as bad as the gaiter style. The best was the N95, then the surgical mask and then the double layer cotton mask which was found to be pretty good.

Yea, that's it. I don't think I saved the URL to that source - have you got it?

I'm buying NIOSH surgical masks from Armbrust in Texas. Not expensive.

 

[Bongleur]

>Members of her local church take turns in giving her a bed for a night. She sleeps wherever there is a bed for her
>

Now that's just as stupid as you can get. Better to sleep in the same closet in the church basement every night.

 

[USGrant1962]

Yea, that's it. I don't think I saved the URL to that source - have you got it?

I'm buying NIOSH surgical masks from Armbrust in Texas. Not expensive.

Here's the link: https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/08/07/sciadv.abd3083

 

[ransil]

Who is winning,?

 

[audreyh1]

Who is winning,?

I think we’ve been focused more on who is losing the most.

But several states have recovered their initial nasty outbreaks, kept their positivity rate low, and a few have managed to avoid a really bad outbreak and still have kept their positivity rate low. Those are winning at the moment.

 

[audreyh1]

Unfortunately Texas continues to have high daily death reports and usually higher than any other state. 258 today. They've crossed 11,000 total fatalities from covid-19 - at 11,051 today according to the TX DSHS site.

 

[audreyh1]

Who is winning,?

New York Times gives a pretty good overview. They show recent activity “hot spots’ so that you can see which states have the most new cases per capita over the last 7 days.

According to their table the highest are Mississippi, Georgia, Texas, Nevada and Tennessee: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

 

[Montecfo]

Who is "winning"?

NY has a huge lead. Looks like no one will come close.

 

[MrsHaloFIRE]

This is very frustrating. I guess due to the crazy long turn-around times, a lot of people have given up on tests. In Texas, positivity rate got down below 12% by the end of July, but has now doubled to 24%. Why? Because the number of daily tests has dropped in half over the past two weeks. So on the surface it appears that daily cases are coming down, but what is actually happening is that we are no longer doing enough tests to detect them. This is very discouraging.
Accuracy of U.S. coronavirus data thrown into question as decline in testing skews drop in new cases
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/12/acc...cline-in-testing-skews-drop-in-new-cases.html

I always wondered how using positivity rate as a marker worked bc when we do get to the right side of the bell curve of covid, less tests will be done so if there is some covid still circulating as the denominator drops but some positives still come back, positivity will go up bc math. So it will look bad using positivity as a metric but it will actually be a good sign

 

[audreyh1]

Who is "winning"?

NY has a huge lead. Looks like no one will come close.

Well, we hope no other state suffers the number of deaths that New York experienced in the first three months! That would mean a much larger number of US deaths if several more states passed them. Meanwhile at least three states are approaching New Jersey’s total fatality count and they haven’t slowed down yet.

That New York managed to get past it and contain outbreaks so well since is very impressive. It shows what is possible if people behave responsibly and contact tracing is taken seriously.

Daily new cases and fatalities have been way down since mid June, and continued to drop to very low numbers. Unlike some other states with an initial large outbreak, they haven’t had a second wave show up yet. It’s quite impressive.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/new-york-coronavirus-cases.html

 

[audreyh1]

I always wondered how using positivity rate as a marker worked bc when we do get to the right side of the bell curve of covid, less tests will be done so if there is some covid still circulating as the denominator drops but some positives still come back, positivity will go up bc math. So it will look bad using positivity as a metric but it will actually be a good sign

I disagree. There will still be testing done. If the positivity rate gets low enough, say remains under 5%, it really doesn’t matter if it goes up and down a bit. The environment will be such that contact tracing can manage localized outbreaks.