What was your COVID news for the day?

[USGrant1962]

CDC has published new best estimates of COVID-19 parameters. Notably, the Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio is now estimated to be 0.4%. Quite a reduction from the WHO's advertised 3.4% that kicked off this panic.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

 

[MichaelB]

CDC has published new best estimates of COVID-19 parameters. Notably, the Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio is now estimated to be 0.4%. Quite a reduction from the WHO's advertised 3.4% that kicked off this panic.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

It could have been both, just not at the same time, and affecting different outbreak locations.

 

[MichaelB]

This continuing discussion questioning the severity of the pandemic is soul-sucking. Once we have a vaccine, or even just an effective treatment protocol, we may be in a position to look back, examine our early assessment and response, ask ourselves the difficult questions. Now, however, everyone is an expert epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and constitutional lawyer.

The people that know the most are the ones expressing the greatest amount of uncertainty.

 

[jollystomper]

DS scored a nice apartment to rent due to the Coronavirus situation. In February, parents of one of his friends closed on a small 3 apartment building that is walking distance to a nearby college. They started to renovate it for summer and fall rentals. With the shutdown and the college moving to online until likely next year, it is now a renters market in that area. He had helped them with some of the renovation work (with social distancing), and they offered him a big rent discount and a lease starting this weekend through December (he is currently try to get his degree by December so the lease length works). He is going part time to a different college and is making enough to afford this.

We love him and he loves us, but he very much wants to be out and living in his own place again, and we want our empty nest back . His finances are in a good place to afford it. We toured the apartment it is a very nice, roomy, 1 bedroom setup. I joked that if DW gets mad at me it would be a nice place to crash for a few days.

He could have spent less and shared a multi-bedroom apartment, but he (like me) is more towards the "Felix Unger" side of neatness, and his past experiences with roommates really had him desiring to live in a place on his own.

 

[eytonxav]

Easter was 12APR2020 in Cass County, Iindiana where services were held.
14 days later, oops.

We observed a spike in our county when the federal prison was factored into the mix. It might also be something like a meat packing plant or just a data backlog getting added in.

 

[Dtail]

Of course. We didn't have "sick days" where I worked, just personal time off. So you really had to feel bad burning a PTO day that you could have used for a 3 day weekend.

Most of my industry changed to total PTO days combining sick/vacation/personal days, so there was less challenge of reasons for days off.

 

[ejman]

CDC has published new best estimates of COVID-19 parameters. Notably, the Symptomatic Case Fatality Ratio is now estimated to be 0.4%. Quite a reduction from the WHO's advertised 3.4% that kicked off this panic.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html

Would a back of the envelope calculation like this for the US be correct then?
Total US population X Infection rate X Symptomatic rate X Case fatality ratio = Number of fatalities


330,000,000 X .70 X .20 X.04 = 1,848,000


i.e total pandemic deaths = 1.8 million ?


Of course. this would be in the absence of vaccine and or successful treatments.

 

[audreyh1]

We observed a spike in our county when the federal prison was factored into the mix. It might also be something like a meat packing plant or just a data backlog getting added in.

It was a huge meat packing plant outbreak, and fortunately they were able to shut things down and contain it quickly.

 

[Chuckanut]

Now, however, everyone is an expert epidemiologist, virologist, statistician and constitutional lawyer.

The people that know the most are the ones expressing the greatest amount of uncertainty.

Dunning-Kruger strikes again! The experts know what they don't know. Those who are absolutely certain they are right are [-]so stupid, they don't know they are stupid[/-] not aware of their cognitive limitations.

 

[USGrant1962]

Would a back of the envelope calculation like this for the US be correct then?
Total US population X Infection rate X Symptomatic rate X Case fatality ratio = Number of fatalities


330,000,000 X .70 X .20 X.04 = 1,848,000


i.e total pandemic deaths = 1.8 million ?


Of course. this would be in the absence of vaccine and or successful treatments.

You slipped a digit, 0.004. But this model is probably too simple to be meaningful.

 

[Turbo29]

Dunning-Kruger strikes again! The experts know what they don't know. Those who are absolutely certain they are right are [-]so stupid, they don't know they are stupid[/-] not aware of their cognitive limitations.

And claiming you know about what others know and don't know makes you ....?

 

[Rianne]

DH is going on golf outing (4 days) with his buddies in July. They will practice social distancing and wear masks (Right!) I know these guys, no way.

If he really does this...he will not be allowed back into our home for at least a week after being tested twice, maybe three times considering the accuracy of our tests. I cannot believe I'm even writing this. And I cannot believe DH is standing firm on this decision.

 

[ejman]

You slipped a digit, 0.004. But this model is probably too simple to be meaningful.

Thanks, proof again math is not my strong suit

 

[Nemo2]

.he will not be allowed back into our home for at least a week after being tested twice, maybe three times considering the accuracy of our tests. I cannot believe I'm even writing this. And I cannot believe DH is standing firm on this decision.

DW just went for a walk.....I have the locks changed already.

 

[Rianne]

DW just went for a walk.....I have the locks changed already.

I will allow him to stay with his germ-a-phobe DB until he passes my test to come home. I think his house is cleaner than a new hospital room.

 

[ivinsfan]

DH is going on golf outing (4 days) with his buddies in July. They will practice social distancing and wear masks (Right!) I know these guys, no way.

If he really does this...he will not be allowed back into our home for at least a week after being tested twice, maybe three times considering the accuracy of our tests. I cannot believe I'm even writing this. And I cannot believe DH is standing firm on this decision.

It's still May so a lot can change between now and then...but I understand it makes you uncomfortable obviously you and your DH have different comfort levels.

 

[Nemo2]

I will allow him to stay with his germ-a-phobe DB until he passes my test to come home. I think his house is cleaner than a new hospital room.

DW came back...hammered on the door then shouted something about fresh eggs....at least I think she said 'layer'.

(It might have been 'lawner', but the condo corp cuts the grass, so I'm not sure.....ah well, I'll find out in two months when I let her back in.)

 

[Rianne]

It's still May so a lot can change between now and then...but I understand it makes you uncomfortable obviously you and your DH have different comfort levels.

A few of the friends think we should not have shut down the economy. I think this belongs in the Covid humor thread.

 

[Dtail]

A few of the friends think we should not have shut down the economy. I think this belongs in the Covid humor thread.

Some of our friends too. I don't even argue with them, just waiting......

 

[Winemaker]

DH is going on golf outing (4 days) with his buddies in July. They will practice social distancing and wear masks (Right!) I know these guys, no way.

If he really does this...he will not be allowed back into our home for at least a week after being tested twice, maybe three times considering the accuracy of our tests. I cannot believe I'm even writing this. And I cannot believe DH is standing firm on this decision.

Do you or your dear husband have a combination of the common co-morbidities that is affecting 92%of the cases? Diabetes, hypertension, obesity, asthma, heart disease, immunity challenged, COPD, or over 70?

 

[W2R]

Our gym re-opened today! They could have opened on the 15th, but they were doing renovations during the lockdown so they weren't ready until today.

We went there and worked out, and my muscles feel sore - - the "good sore" of a healthy workout, not anything bad. I know I am going to feel like limp spaghetti in the morning.

The machines were spaced in a way to provide plenty of social distancing. Half the machines had signs on them saying to pick another one since they were too close to the other machines. About 30% of those working out were wearing their masks. Everybody chose to wear one going into and out of the gym, or near others, but many removed them temporarily in order to breathe while doing cardio with ample social distancing. The gym is huge with a lot of ventilation and 30 foot high ceilings plus heavy duty fans and AC, and it was not crowded. Overall I felt they did an adequate job of making the gym safer. They provided disposable wipes for wiping off the equipment before and after.

Then, on the way home, we stopped by our favorite restaurant and had lunch (dining in).

 

[Lechwel]

Our state started reopening but me and my family decided to wait a little further since we think it is still to early to open up.

 

[harllee]

Our state started reopening but me and my family decided to wait a little further since we think it is still to early to open up.

Me too and Lechwel welcome to the Forum and your 1st post

 

[Rianne]

Do you or your dear husband have a combination of the common co-morbidities that is affecting 92%of the cases? Diabetes, hypertension, obesity, asthma, heart disease, immunity challenged, COPD, or over 70?

I have ADPKD, polycystic kidney disease discovered in 2017 from a CT scan. I'm at perfect weight, BP great without meds average ~110/70, low salt etc. And have cancer history but free from it now. Covid attacks organs, kidneys.

After much discussion yesterday, DH canceled his plans. Here's icing on the cake, the organizer of these outings, they take place every 2 years, is an ER(emergency not early retired)-MD and has been for over 30 years. He's is one of the few in the group who believes we should not have shut down the economy and let this virus play out.

 

[eytonxav]

Late last night I received a message that one of the residents in our neighborhood might have Covid. This morning, after speaking with one of the physicians that lives here, the resident in question is on a ventilator in the hospital. What makes this situation even worse, is sick neighbor has children who have been out playing with and inside the homes of other neighborhood kids. Our neighborhood is going into a bit of panic.