ERD50
Give me a museum and I'll fill it. (Picasso) Give me a forum ...
I agree with your statement that if I start with a WR which was successful in every one of the past 117 thirty year periods, I can ratchet up in response to good experience and say that I still have a withdrawal amount which was successful in every one of the past 117 thirty year periods.
But, the OP specified that he was withdrawing 4%, not 3.2%. FireCalc says that 4% is 95% successful.
Suppose I start with a 4% rate, and have good early results. This good news may have put me into one of those 100% successful rates, assuming I don't ratchet. If I do ratchet, I take myself out of a 100% successful WR and into a 95% successful WR.
IMO, that's a choice that requires some thought.
It requires thought in either case. And I don't see where starting from a 95% Historically Safe Withdraw Rate (HSWR) or a 100% HSWR conflicts with or materially changes anything I said.
Clearly, ratcheting up spending at any point will reduce the portfolio. It can't be any other way, that's basic arithmetic.
So if we stick strictly with the data set in FIRECalc, ratcheting up from a 100% HSWR will keep you 100% safe, but with a smaller ending portfolio (some will view this as more 'efficient'). If you start with 95%, of course, the lower portfolio means you may push more of those years into failure.
And like I said earlier "pass/fail" quantizes the data in a way that is probably not all that helpful to us. A $2 difference can take from pass to fail - but in real life, $2 might mean you run out of money before or after you decide to buy a cup of coffee with lunch on a particular day 28 years from now.
-ERD50