I understand that. Still, MJ is in his 70's and keeps talking 30 years. I think you could kid yourself about how volatile your portfolio is when death is more correctly 15-20 years away.
except history and research shows exactly the opposite .it is pre retirement and the first years in retirement that a volatile portfolio has the most effect on .
once out of the red zone raising equities back up is exactly the glide path you may want .
retirement planning is usually standardized on a 30 year plan since most retire in the their 60’s . it is used for setting that day one draw .
obviously if one is not retiring until 70 they may not want to plan around 30 years which is why all calculations give you choices of how many years.
it’s no different then while accumulation periods are assumed to be decades and long term money is thought of money you won’t eat with for decades , a late starter is a different story.
what is this MJ keeps talking 30 years ? i specifically said i use 22 years since i am 8-1/2 years in .
studies talk in terms of 30 years since that is the industry standard for a typical retirement..maybe not yours but the majority are based on 30 years when they start .
don’t forget even if you don’t retire in your 60’s the clock is still ticking , you just may be not spending down yet because you are working and you choose not to retire .
but that doesn’t change the fact that at age 62 your money can generate x amount over the next 30 years allocated a certain way ..you just have a low or no draw rate yet and still may be increasing savings the same as we all do from portfolio growth .
i made 30k last year with my side hustles but that does not change the capabilities of my balance , it only effects my actual draw rate as i may draw less . however portfolio capabilities are the same whether i work or not
the fact i work a bit reduces what i actually need to draw but not what i can draw
those with pensions may never have a pay check stop . so the clock is still ticking wether you retire or not at 62 or not and still likely have 30 years or less left .
since my draw method is based on our yearly balance i run firecalc for the remaining years we have left at this stage as a max which is 22 years…
no problem living longer as we have a 50% chance we are likely to die with more then we started with at 50/50 using 95/5 if we maxed out each years draw , which we don’t.
so running out because of a market dip is about on par with a lightning strike because our draw is variable based on balance