Contrast between real life and current economic news

[DrRoy]

The largest factor is the difficulty in finding staff to hire.

 

[COcheesehead]

I live near a bunch of National Parks. A year ago you had to make reservations to get in. Today, you can drive right in. Traffic is way down.

 

[MRG]

I live near a bunch of National Parks. A year ago you had to make reservations to get in. Today, you can drive right in. Traffic is way down.

+1
While it's tourist season traffic is down. Specifically our Wal-Mart is normally full of class As pulling toads, few are there. Perhaps $5 gas is keeping some home or in cars.
Our restaurants are open with smaller staffs, paying $15+ hourly and are always hiring now. City Market has a sign offering $16+ an hour to stock shelves.
As far as workers having money saved to live on that's nonsense, at least where we live. Price of housing prevents that.

 

[Pellice]

I'll be contrary and say that I haven't really noticed any of the issues that the OP mentions, here in the metro Boston area.

Sure, some times of day and days of the week are busier than others; we retirees know all about this.
Prices are generally up a bit, yes, but check-out staffing is pretty much normal.
*shurg*

Same here in NJ, in the Greater Megalopolis. But I'm a retiree, able to run errands at slow times. NJ also still has immigration, providing a stable base for retail jobs, even at (or perhaps because of) our high minimum wage.

 

[Pellice]

I got money, but you'll never see me at a coffee shop.

+1. I have a really good thermos.

 

[ShokWaveRider]

OP, nothing like that where we live in a MCOL Vacation town, shopping and all is plain sailing. Walmart lines are fast, Aldi's is perfect and rarely has a line, when they do, they are fast to open a checkout. Must be your specific location.

 

[ivinsfan]

OP, nothing like that where we live in a MCOL Vacation town, shopping and all is plain sailing. Walmart lines are fast, Aldi's is perfect and rarely has a line, when they do, they are fast to open a checkout. Must be your specific location.

We're a fairly boring smallish town out here in the midwest. It's strange to see patterns of decades changing. As far as work from home I would wager that very few people work from home. Biggest employers would be a Hormel plant, a big regional clinic and hospital, a huge nursing home/assisted living complex. There's a great deal of shift work involved. but not a lot of work from home opportunities.



I might drive into to town next Wednesday and find it quiet, who knows...

 

[Pellice]

Ivinsfan, I so totally wish businesses from the coasts would think seriously about relocating to the midwest. It would solve so many problems, such as water and power and COL. All that idle talk about piping water from the Great Lakes to California - please! We're humans. We move around, and have throughout history. Not every area has every qualification, but it's a huge area. You can find large concentrations of highly educated workers. You can find excellent transportation infrastructure. You can find a good power grid. You can find beautiful natural areas. The culture will take care of itself as soon as concentrations of people are present. Cincinnati, for example, has the best zoo in the United States.

That digression aside, the larger scale issues caused by our global economy continue - [-]New Jersey's Fish and Wildife Department[/-] [Edit: - No, it wasn't a department of the state government that canceled - it was a for-profit exposition company, the Outdoor Sports Group] - just cancelled their big August Outdoor show:

The challenge currently is the outdoor industry is still suffering from supply chain and labor shortages making it hard to book a trip, purchase fishing tackle, boats, ATV’s and many of the products that complement the perfect outdoor adventure. We are passionate about delivering sports shows that showcase the latest products, services, travel destination, ATV’s, RV’s, boats, powersports, fishing tackle, outfitters, wildlife art, hunting supplies, charters, paddle boards, knives and much more. Based on the supply chain and labor issue we would not be able to deliver the quality of show that the outdoor community deserves.

 

[pacergal]

I used to be able to plan times when stores around here would not be as busy,, so I could shop with potentially less hassle and covid risk exposure. No longer. Stores appear back to busy all the time, gas stations seem to have cars in them every time I drive by, our gas prices have come down. The roads are crowded, made worse by summer road repair.

Life is back to normal around here, or so it seems.
We still try to go do our "big" shopping close to closing or between 8-9pm. That is usually a good time, as those with kids are home getting them to bed, the dinner crowd is gone. Sometimes, though, the shelves are a bit more bare. I also try early am on Tuesdays, as that seems to be when they restock at our local Safeway.

 

[street]

+1. I have a really good thermos.

X2 and I don't care to use my time waiting for a cup of joe. I have to many other things to do and so little time.

 

[W2R]

IIRC the last time I got coffee at McDonald's was in 2005, in Alabama when evacuating for Hurricane Katrina. Yes, the coffee was good. But I'm too much of a cheapskate to drink coffee anywhere but at home.

 

[Midpack]

It’s not a simple matter of people not wanting to work as some above allege, there’s an increasing shortage of workers due to demographics. Think Japan, China and others who are falling well short of working age adults with more seniors than ever. The largest generation in the US has now left the workforce for the most part, and the number of Zoomers is smaller - which will leave us about 400K short of workers now rising to 900K. [Gen X and Millenials are already in the workforce so already factored in, hence the comparison between Boomers v Zoomers]

The world — the entire world — is literally running out of workers. In most sectors in most places, the workforce which exists today is the most robust it will be And now? Now they are leaving us. The majority of the American Boomers will have retired by the end of 2023. Unlike any other group that might leave the work force only to someday return, Boomers are leaving because of age. They will never return. The American system will never recover from that.

 

[Badger]

I got money, but you'll never see me at a coffee shop.

+1
I can add that I have never had a cup of coffee that is as good as what we make at home. Our machine makes what ever amount we want, dispenses by the cup, and has a timer so it is ready when we wake up. I can have coffee immediately and have more to take with me later.. Why would I take more time to get dressed, drive to a coffee shop (McD, or Gas station), wait in line to order then wait some more for my order, then later drive home.
Lately I like to make mine like a Cafe con Leche/chocolate with a spoon of Nutella.

Cheers!

 

[dak2018]

It’s not a simple matter of people not wanting to work as some above allege, there’s an increasing shortage of workers due to demographics. Think Japan, China and others who are falling well short of working age adults with more seniors than ever. The largest generation in the US has now left the workforce for the most part, and the number of Zoomers is smaller - which will leave us about 400K short of workers now rising to 900K. [Gen X and Millenials are already in the workforce so already factored in, hence the comparison between Boomers v Zoomers]

Yep - and the remaining workers, if they have any qualifications at all, are refusing to work for bad. Low pay, horrible customers, worse managers, constantly changing work hours, hours limited so as to not pay benefits - the list goes on and on. We have become accustomed to being served by people who are simply finding better opportunities and that is reflected in our experience as customers.

At the end of this, there will probably be a large number of businesses that are shuttered due to their inability to compensate employees properly while at the same time providing a product at an attractive price to the consumer. All fans of capitalism should rejoice at this development. Fans of cheap fast food might not be as happy.

 

[ivinsfan]

Yep - and the remaining workers, if they have any qualifications at all, are refusing to work for bad. Low pay, horrible customers, worse managers, constantly changing work hours, hours limited so as to not pay benefits - the list goes on and on. We have become accustomed to being served by people who are simply finding better opportunities and that is reflected in our experience as customers.

At the end of this, there will probably be a large number of businesses that are shuttered due to their inability to compensate employees properly while at the same time providing a product at an attractive price to the consumer. All fans of capitalism should rejoice at this development. Fans of cheap fast food might not be as happy.

How do you think your last paragraph will actually play out. As a dairy producer I heard the song and dance my entire adult life. If it was that easy everyone would do it. The question is how much price increase and inflation is the modern world ready to accept. Considering all the teeth nashing about senior coffee going defunct I'd say not much.



We are a society that wants instant gratification at a bargain. I don't see that ending well. I'm as guilty as the next person.

 

[Mr._Graybeard]

We're a fairly boring smallish town out here in the midwest. It's strange to see patterns of decades changing. As far as work from home I would wager that very few people work from home. Biggest employers would be a Hormel plant, a big regional clinic and hospital, a huge nursing home/assisted living complex. There's a great deal of shift work involved. but not a lot of work from home opportunities.

I might drive into to town next Wednesday and find it quiet, who knows...

A big part of the labor shortage in smaller towns is that young people see no future there. The idea of getting a college education so you could come home and slice up hog carcasses is not appealing. As is making $15/hr as a checkout clerk -- especially after you turn 30. At that point it's easy to think, I have to make a change. Maybe Minneapolis/Chicago/Denver has some opportunity.

Austin, Minn., has a big Hormel presence. The 18-24 demographic there, according to Wikipedia, is a hair under 9%. 25-44, 23%. This is the group likely to take on those $15/hr jobs to make ends meet. Excluding immigrant labor, which historically has filled jobs in slaughterhouses and other unpleasant environments.

I live near Madison, the center of economic growth in Wisconsin at the moment. 19.6% of the population is 18-24, and 31.4 between 25 and 44. Why? Because there is opportunity there.

The small town where I graduated from high school once had a big furniture factory and a sausage plant where people could make a family-sustaining living. Both factories have closed, and the city is largely a bedroom community. Fortunately for those without higher education, it is the county seat with jobs in the government sector available. But the town still looks down on its heels when I drive through.

 

[11522914]

I forgot a comment about Aldi's you know all the non food C#$p they sell. My store has more and more every week. More then 50% of these items have been marked down ie on clearance. Aldi's did a big push on outdoor items and virtually none of it is moving and is now 50% off. So people aren't buying that kind of stuff. Aldi's has big piles of that stuff in the middle of the outside aliases, on selves and all over the store.

I noticed the exact same situation at my Aldi's yesterday. Lots of non food items marked down. 2 full aisles of it. Very unusual. Mostly outdoor summer items. I was tempted to buy stuff I don't really need but figured if they continue marking it down it might entice me to purchase later.

Plus they were out of a lot of items.

 

[TheWizard]

Ivinsfan, I so totally wish businesses from the coasts would think seriously about relocating to the midwest. It would solve so many problems, such as water and power and COL. All that idle talk about piping water from the Great Lakes to California - please!

An underground pipeline from the bottom of Lake Superior to Southern Cal sounds like a GREAT idea!
Where's Elon when we need him

 

[dak2018]

How do you think your last paragraph will actually play out. As a dairy producer I heard the song and dance my entire adult life. If it was that easy everyone would do it. The question is how much price increase and inflation is the modern world ready to accept. Considering all the teeth nashing about senior coffee going defunct I'd say not much.



We are a society that wants instant gratification at a bargain. I don't see that ending well. I'm as guilty as the next person.

We are seeing a generational shift on top of a demographic shift. I do not expect the older generation to adapt gracefully (I am 64 and count myself as older, but I do exclude myself from the unadaptable cohort).

Broadly, shortages have two solutions - decrease demand or increase supply. For labor, increasing supply means seriously addressing immigration, but that seems a bridge too far for our political process.

So demand for labor will need to shrink - marginal businesses collapse, and the remaining businesses do what they can to reduce the labor content of their products and services. Either way, things will change and people will complain. But then again, people complain when things are going well, so what is new?

 

[Scuba]

One thing contributing to the staffing shortages that I haven’t seen mentioned is the large number of young people who still live at home or are being highly subsidized by parents. I know of several college grads who aren’t working in their field because they aren’t willing to commute, work the required hours, etc. There is no pressure on these kids because their parents don’t require them to pay rent, share in household expenses or give them a deadline to get a job.

When I went to college, I never even considered moving back home, nor did anyone I know. I didn’t expect to live by myself in a luxury apartment either. I got a decent 2 BR apartment and shared it with a co-worker. I realize housing prices have gone up a lot, but starting salaries have too.

It’s amazing how motivated people are to work when there aren’t any viable alternatives. When they don’t have to work because someone is covering their expenses, they are much pickier about what job is worthy of their talents.

 

[ivinsfan]

We are seeing a generational shift on top of a demographic shift. I do not expect the older generation to adapt gracefully (I am 64 and count myself as older, but I do exclude myself from the unadaptable cohort).

Broadly, shortages have two solutions - decrease demand or increase supply. For labor, increasing supply means seriously addressing immigration, but that seems a bridge too far for our political process.

So demand for labor will need to shrink - marginal businesses collapse, and the remaining businesses do what they can to reduce the labor content of their products and services. Either way, things will change and people will complain. But then again, people complain when things are going well, so what is new?

Or they pay more for labor to attract labor and have to raise prices. At some point as we have seen you need actual people working to provide services. Change it' s a comin.

 

[MRG]

A big part of the labor shortage in smaller towns is that young people see no future there. The idea of getting a college education so you could come home and slice up hog carcasses is not appealing. As is making $15/hr as a checkout clerk -- especially after you turn 30. At that point it's easy to think, I have to make a change. Maybe Minneapolis/Chicago/Denver has some opportunity.



Austin, Minn., has a big Hormel presence. The 18-24 demographic there, according to Wikipedia, is a hair under 9%. 25-44, 23%. This is the group likely to take on those $15/hr jobs to make ends meet. Excluding immigrant labor, which historically has filled jobs in slaughterhouses and other unpleasant environments.



I live near Madison, the center of economic growth in Wisconsin at the moment. 19.6% of the population is 18-24, and 31.4 between 25 and 44. Why? Because there is opportunity there.



The small town where I graduated from high school once had a big furniture factory and a sausage plant where people could make a family-sustaining living. Both factories have closed, and the city is largely a bedroom community. Fortunately for those without higher education, it is the county seat with jobs in the government sector available. But the town still looks down on its heels when I drive through.

+1
It was like that 40 years ago in the remote part of PA I grew up in. Beautiful place with no viable industry left. The people who stayed in the area were at a huge disadvantage no matter how smart or hard they worked. We left there with little education but we saw opportunity in KC and took off. A few years later I was working at a dream job..

 

[TheWizard]

+1
It was like that 40 years ago in the remote part of PA I grew up in. Beautiful place with no viable industry left. The people who stayed in the area were at a huge disadvantage no matter how smart or hard they worked. We left there with little education but we saw opportunity in KC and took off. A few years later I was working at a dream job..

Ok, but deer hunting is lots better in PA than within a 100 mile radius of KC.
They even close schools on opening day of Deer ? season...

 

[MRG]

Ok, but deer hunting is lots better in PA than within a 100 mile radius of KC.

They even close schools on opening day of Deer [emoji1662] season...

It'd not that big of an event like PA but last I hunted in KC area, 60 miles from downtown KCMO, does were unlimited as the population is so heavy. You could only take one buck and I'm not sure if you had to check it in, but you didn't have to for doe. Seems like the prior year the limit was 10 doe. Lot of whitetail. Now trout fishing is a different story.

 

[harllee]

We are seeing a generational shift on top of a demographic shift. I do not expect the older generation to adapt gracefully (I am 64 and count myself as older, but I do exclude myself from the unadaptable cohort).

Broadly, shortages have two solutions - decrease demand or increase supply. For labor, increasing supply means seriously addressing immigration, but that seems a bridge too far for our political process.

So demand for labor will need to shrink - marginal businesses collapse, and the remaining businesses do what they can to reduce the labor content of their products and services. Either way, things will change and people will complain. But then again, people complain when things are going well, so what is new?

Probably not a popular opinion but I think increased immigration could help the labor shortage. Especially in certain industries, construction, retail, restaurants, medical, agriculture, etc. Would not have to be permanent immigration but something like more guest worker situation.