are home generators going to be unavoidable in the future?

[NW-Bound]

^^^ This begs the question of whether the grid is more delicate now than it used to be.

Does the weather now cause more instances of power loss compared to 20 years ago? Is the infrastructure now aged and more susceptible to breaking down? Does demand growth exceed our capability to build generation plants? There has to be something that causes people to worry more about what they used to take for granted.

Or perhaps we are all becoming sissies and cry our eyes out when not having power for a few days, while our ancestors just lighted up some candles and went on quietly?

 

[Ronstar]

^^^ This begs the question of whether the grid is more delicate now than it used to be.

Does the weather now cause more instances of power loss compared to 20 years ago?

I don't have any data, but it seems like there may be slightly more outages now - at least here. Almost all seem to be weather related. According to my Comed texts, most recent outage at our house was 7/29 due to "severe weather"

Is the infrastructure now aged and more susceptible to breaking down?

I think so.

Does demand growth exceed our capability to build generation plants? There has to be something that causes people to worry more about what they used to take for granted.

I can't find recent data, but electricity generation in Illinois fell between 2010 -2016. Coal plants are being shut down. Still have the same amount of nukes. Gas plants coming on line to handle peaks.

Or perhaps we are all becoming sissies and cry our eyes out when not having power for a few days, while our ancestors just lighted up some candles and went on quietly?

There is a lot of this. In the old days, it seemed like we had less dependance on electricity, and certainly used to be more patient waiting for power to come back on.

 

[Texas Proud]

We really shouldn't be advocating all (or even many) people getting generators.

The sensible solution is to harden our electric infrastructure: reliable power generating plants along with hardened power transmission infrastructure - and put local power lines underground so trees don't fall on them.

Expensive? How much does installing an maintaining individual min-power plants (generators) for everyone?

I do not disagree... but politicians and others are not willing to do what is necessary to get it done... Texas has said that they did a lot after the freeze a few years back but I keep seeing news casts stating otherwise...


So, did they actually do something or just talk about doing it hoping it never happens again..

 

[steady saver]

One of the thing that I wonder about some who have not had a long power outage... how close do you live to a hospital or other place that would be first in line to get power?


A friend of my oldest sister bought a house near a hospital making sure she as on the same circuit knowing that it gets power back first.. she has never had a long time without electricity...

This is true! I have several friends who live in a high rise right next the the Texas Medical Center. They never lose power and that's saying a lot here in Houston.

 

[ERD50]

We really shouldn't be advocating all (or even many) people getting generators.

The sensible solution is to harden our electric infrastructure: reliable power generating plants along with hardened power transmission infrastructure - and put local power lines underground so trees don't fall on them.

Expensive? How much does installing an maintaining individual min-power plants (generators) for everyone?

It's debatable if it is 'sensible' or not. There's a very steep price to be paid for back ups and underground power lines.

In any case, we have little control over whether the utility/politicians enforce that hardening of the grid. So, on a personal level;, the 'sensible' thing to do is get your own generator/solar-backup plan.

We moved to a place (SW burbs of Chicago) that happens to be within ~ 2 miles of a large substation. Transmission lines are less than a mile to the East and to the West of us. As far as I can tell, power comes in/out from the Braidwood nukes from the south, and various power plants to the North, East and West. And as far as I can tell, our power from that substation or nearby lines is buried lines all the way. I don't think we've had more than a blip in the 2.5 years here.

I'm still thinking of a few kWh worth of LIFePO4 batteries to replace the sump backup when it ages in a few years. Keep it charged from the line or solar, and it could supply the basics for a while.

-ERD50

 

[frank]

I think I worded the post incorrectly. What the original question was meant to be: because of all the litigation against the power companies accusing them of being responsible for the forest fires because of failure to shut down power lines in high wind warnings, do you think power companies will start to shut down power grids to areas where high wind is expected in order to avoid further litigation?

 

[Out of Steam]

Really?

Do you have any idea how much it would cost to bury all local electric lines? In an area where there are only overhead lines? And there are a lot of instances where buried power lines are not feasible.

Being that an installed generator would cost about what we spend on electricity in 10 years, we could tolerate a near-doubling of our electric rates and break even.

 

[gauss]

A few houses ago we had above-ground power and would get a few outages every summer (Minnesota). Our coop was a good one and we were rarely out for more than a few hours but did suffer through a 3-day outage one July 4th. I picked up a Honda EU 2000, just enough to run the fridge-freezer, lights, fans and laptops. It sat unused besides maintenance runs for several years at our last house which was all underground utilities. I don't think we had an outage of more than 30 mins in 8 years there. My thought is that a freezer full of food will pay for a small generator like that so why not get one? We still use ours as backup to the solar on our boat and I could sell it for what I paid for it 15 years ago.

+1 to the Honda EU 2000

It is so quiet and lightweight but can make such a difference during a power outage in the quality of life (ie fans, lights, radio/tv/computers,microwave) It can also run a sump pump, furnace blower and 2 refridgerators but NOT at the same time.

I have purchased an external 5 gallon fuel tank for use during power outages so that it only needs to be refilled every day or so vs multiple times per day (and night).

I also use the EU 2000 at various tailgate parties that we host during the fall.

I have various friends that long for the "whole-house" generators, but I don't see the value for our case.

-gauss

 

[Music Lover]

I'm starting to wonder if climate change is going to make common thunderstorms more powerful. I never saw anything like what just hit around here.

You never saw anything before you were there, and no one saw a single thunderstorm before people settled.

There is one guarantee about the climate you can take to the bank...it will be used as an excuse for incompetence and poorly maintained equipment.

 

[Out of Steam]

There is one guarantee about the climate you can take to the bank...it will be used as an excuse for incompetence and poorly maintained equipment.

Obsolete and band-aided infrastructure appear to have become the American way since the 1980s. At some point, we need to stop living off the WPA and the post-WWII building spree.

 

[MC Rider]

Really?

Do you have any idea how much it would cost to bury all local electric lines? In an area where there are only overhead lines? And there are a lot of instances where buried power lines are not feasible. A local community was going to beautify their downtown by burying the lines until they got the cost.

And what about high tension lines? The latest tornado here mangled several high tension towers. These took the longest to fix and probably were the cause of the long outage.

Burying local lines seems simple. But it isn’t. And it certainly wouldn’t be cost effective.

It would make more sense to require generators than to try to bury all electric lines.

There are steep hills here and a lot of the ground is very rocky. They would probably have to resort to blasting for some of the digging. Not gonna happen.

 

[stephenson]

Hmmm ... a pretty good discussion!

The value of hardening (burying lines, encasement, etc) related to ... yep, the value of the electricity - and the value cannot be judged based on history, but rather what the future is going to look like. And, we KNOW what the future is going to look like - more people (more stress), less fossil fuel based supplies (potentially less stress), aging transmission infrastructure (more stress - and, sure, those same utilities know about this and will always put delay expenditures), less and less expensive residential solar installations (less stress), more and more electric cars (more stress), less expensive residential battery storage solutions including home battery systems and electric cars as backup, etc ... lots to think about in a technical, apolitical manner.

If I lived in high growth areas with lots of sunshine - ex: AZ, SoCal, Colorado, Florida, etc - it would be a no-brainer to start planning/buying into residential solar.

If I lived in a hurricane/power loss prone area/density based power loss (ie one living in a a sparsely populated area that gets power restored last) - I would start planning/buying into residential solar with battery backup (as above).

There are some significant safety issues and some really ludicrous business/politial issues.

The biggest safety issue is how to ensure linemen and electrical restoration workers are not injured from back feeding power during outages from residential solar - but, this is something that can and is being dealt with.

Electric companies - whoa, this is where it starts to get hard. They really need to ensure the transmission infrastructure is maintained and not using their power, but then depending on it part time is sort of like not paying road tax when electric cars use the roads . This is being discussed, fought over, politics about, etc - gonna be awhile and then it will be state by state, county by county and power company by power company.

Just spoke with a friend who moved into a new house in "South Park" Colorado. Nice house, with a small barn - the barn has 32 PV panels, which feed lead-acid batteries sufficient for 2-3 days of careful use. He has a backup propane generator (in many areas he would be able to use the local power company's infrastructure, but he is too far out). He said he rarely even thinks about the PV system, and the gas generator goes unused, except to exercise itself.

Interesting future - and, lots to think about.

 

[Montecfo]

I think I worded the post incorrectly. What the original question was meant to be: because of all the litigation against the power companies accusing them of being responsible for the forest fires because of failure to shut down power lines in high wind warnings, do you think power companies will start to shut down power grids to areas where high wind is expected in order to avoid further litigation?

I do think so yes.

And I also think they will find mitigation such a tree trimming to be more cost effectice than they once thought.

I do think generators make sense.

 

[Gumby]

One of the thing that I wonder about some who have not had a long power outage... how close do you live to a hospital or other place that would be first in line to get power?


A friend of my oldest sister bought a house near a hospital making sure she as on the same circuit knowing that it gets power back first.. she has never had a long time without electricity...

We didn't plan it this way, but we live about three blocks from the hospital and are on the same substation. In 31 years, we've had 3 power outages, none longer than an hour.

 

[bjorn2bwild]

I think I worded the post incorrectly. What the original question was meant to be: because of all the litigation against the power companies accusing them of being responsible for the forest fires because of failure to shut down power lines in high wind warnings, do you think power companies will start to shut down power grids to areas where high wind is expected in order to avoid further litigation?

Called PSPS for "public safety power shutoff", this started in Northern California after the Carr and Camp fires in 2018.
I don't know about other areas, but there are a number of small to mid sized cities in Northern California that own and operate local public utilities with the ability to generate enough power to serve their incorporated residents if grid power is lost.

 

[Music Lover]

Most people wouldn't need a generator if infrastructure was maintained properly, and yet it seems that too many people just accept the incompetence. For example, California has had severe power issues for several decades and yet no one does anything about it.

 

[MarieIG]

We don't get power outages often, but we have gotten some long ones every few years. The longest I can recall was Superstorm Sandy (11 days) for us. I had previously purchased a generator for DF's house, due to his age and paralysis (i.e. he had a hospital bed with a mattress which constantly moved to prevent bed stores) and was glad we had one there.

We are not near a hospital, but I can certainly see why hospital or nursing home should have their power restored quickly.

 

[Texas Proud]

Most people wouldn't need a generator if infrastructure was maintained properly, and yet it seems that too many people just accept the incompetence. For example, California has had severe power issues for several decades and yet no one does anything about it.

But there is almost nothing that an individual can do... and there are a lot what I will call bigger problems that probably need to be handled first...


Also... not all of us can have PV... my house is in shade most of the day... there is zero benefit for me to buy a system...


There are two that I know of here... one did it and then found their trees were in the way so cut down 4 really nice large trees to power their system... the other has a garage next to the street and no trees blocking that roof... a number of panels on that garage...

 

[YVRRocketSurgery]

Everyone obviously has to assess their own risk and potential impact.

We live in an urban area so we've had the odd power outage for only a few hours at most every few years so I feel fairly confident with our situation. However, I still wouldn't mind eventually getting one even though I doubt I'd have much use for it.

One of my friends who lives about 30 minutes away from me had the power go out for the neighborhood for over a day or two due some repair/maintenance issues. He had a generator and it was enough to keep everyone's fridges and freezers going so no food spoiled. That was pretty handy.

 

[Texas Proud]

I just want to point out something that I do not think has been said yet..


A lot of people keep saying that they do not have long power outages... but back when I was like that you still had to change your attitude immediately when the electricity went out... you could not do anything and if you lived in a hot area your house would get hot...



You had to stop living normally... do not open the fridge as you do not know how long it will be... also keep the freezer closed... opps, no cooking...


They usually will give an estimate of when you will get power but that can be way off.. I went to bed thinking the power would be on by 1AM per the utility but woke without power...



Just being able to live normally is a big deal to me...

 

[Time2]

In 2018 after hurricane Micheal, the neighbors were so happy when I brought over hot coffee. We had a generator so had a little light and a fan to run at night and could make coffee in the morning. Just a little bit of normal!

 

[old medic]

We have had 3 outages already this year due to trees taking out lines. Only a few hours each time. one was during the night and only found out because the microwave clock was flashing. After the blizzard of 93, we spent 17 days without power.

 

[Spock]

I have been reading about all the wildfires in Hawaii, colorado, etc. and have noticed that in these states or areas the electric companies are being sued for negligence because they didn't shut down power when there were high winds expected. I have never heard of shutting off electric power to homes because of high wind. I live in Iowa and we get high winds at times, but haven't had a power outage of more than an hour in years. this might be a dumb question, but do you think the amount of litigation going forward might force power companies to shut down power during high wind warnings. I don't have a home generator and it might be something I should consider under these circumstances. what are your opinions?

There are a couple of angles to this.
1. Yes. Power companies will proactively shut down electrical distribution lines more frequently to prevent forest fires. If recent experience holds it will happen more and more often as in order to be the safest possible the max wind threshold at which power is cut off will be continuously reduced.

This will only get more problematic as the power power production and distribution networks get more and more fragile through forced decarbonization. Read the published requirements... no less than 95% decarbonization.

2. In short term, that specific outage is not going to impact stereotypical flat land and corn fields Iowa. Unless you are in a forested corner of Iowa or have experienced prairie fires, there is no wild fire threat from downed power lines beyond local damage.

Lastly, while a generator will be a useful backup for X number of years, the prime question on a big investment is "how long to do you expect to be able to get fuel for it?". Any fossil fuel has a cloudy horizon.


If you're going to get a generator, get it now. TPTB that are coming after your gas stove and hot water heater are now publishing drafts to force small generators to reduce carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. This isn't the same as the 2016(?) push for auto-shutoff CO detectors on generators. This is reducing the CO that comes out of the generator.

 

[Spock]

We really shouldn't be advocating all (or even many) people getting generators.

The sensible solution is to harden our electric infrastructure: reliable power generating plants along with hardened power transmission infrastructure - and put local power lines underground so trees don't fall on them.

Expensive? How much does installing an maintaining individual min-power plants (generators) for everyone?

The IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers) disagrees with that and is advocating just the opposite.

Today we don't really have an electric "grid". It's more of a hub-and-spoke topology similar to airports with mega/gigawatt generators as the hubs.


Their published topology is distributed/intelligent micro-grids consisting of communities sharing power with their neighbors and occasionally selling surplus to near by communities. The smallest example is two houses. One with solar exposure to the east and the other with solar exposure to the west. The east facing home supplies power to both in the morning and the west supplies to both in the afternoon. Some of the discussions also involve a DC distribution network... Google "spectrum.ieee.org micro-grid" for a list of published articles.

 

[Car-Guy]

Lastly, while a generator will be a useful backup for X number of years, the prime question on a big investment is "how long to do you expect to be able to get fuel for it?". Any fossil fuel has a cloudy horizon.

I have two pretty good sized portable generators. (Total of 15kw) Both are ~15 years old and work perfectly. I expect one or both will still be working well after I am not. Same with fuel, it will be readily available long after I'm gone. However if I were 20 or 30 years younger, then "maybe" I'd be a little concerned about it.

If you're going to get a generator, get it now. TPTB that are coming after your gas stove and hot water heater are now publishing drafts to force small generators to reduce carbon monoxide (CO) emissions. This isn't the same as the 2016(?) push for auto-shutoff CO detectors on generators. This is reducing the CO that comes out of the generator.

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