S&P 500 Prediction 2024

[Mr. Tightwad]

4617

 

[Maximus]

5413

 

[HenryD]

5432.1

 

[Enuff2Eat]

Negative (-) 90 points already for the 1st week

 

[Koolau]

WAG is that it will be down for the year. I'm gonna say 4%. I have no particular information/data to point to. I just think the economy is less robust than most of the indicators suggest at this point. There are a lot more things potentially against a robust market than for a robust market IMO. Expanding war in the Middle East, geopolitical issues with China, war stalemate in Ukraine, Election/political turmoil, potential recurrence of inflation, etc. Then there are the inflated P/E ratios which may not seem so justified as earnings come in. Can't think of too many optimistic things except momentum. BUT YMMV.


Signed,


Resident pessimist

 

[Toast]

5432.1

You “Price Is Righted” me!

 

[Jeffman52]

5175

 

[HenryD]

You “Price Is Righted” me!

Sorry, didn't notice that. Guess we had the same cute idea.

 

[Toast]

Sorry, didn't notice that. Guess we had the same cute idea.

I loved it and laughed out loud when I saw it.

 

[sengsational]

Lots of safe, conservative guesses here. I'm going to bet big on an election year, soft landing, and the end of Fed tightening. 6,100

Last year I went with 6,000, I think. This year, I'll go with 6101. Nobody is going to out optimistic me, LOL!

 

[GrayHare]

4617

 

[sengsational]

There's a nice price is right value at 5659, but voting is closed by jollystomper edict.

Esteemed Guesser|Guess
GravitySucks|4237.000
madatrub|4401.000
Out-to-Lunch|4482.000
Taco|4488.000
Mr. Tightwad|4617.000
GrayHare|4617.000
a60dan|4769.830
Closet_Gamer|4800.000
yhoomajor|4932.000
teejayevans|4999.000
DrRoy|5000.000
Niuatoputapu|5008.000
MichealKnight|5025.000
ksr|5032.000
RetireAge50|5044.572
mickeyd|5053.320
Dtail|5104.000
FLSUnFIRE|5111.830
Hank|5130.000
Jerry1|5135.000
Martlet|5138.000
dmpi|5145.000
exnavynuke|5150.000
Dash man|5151.000
Enuff2Eat|5151.416
Jeffman52|5175.000
PatrickA5|5198.000
Onda|5200.000
Markola|5200.000
SecondCor521|5246.813
HI Bill|5270.000
Bigdawg|5279.000
freedom2022|5280.000
Bryan Barnfellow|5294.511
Gumby|5321.000
Chuckanut|5322.000
target2019|5342.200
Go-NoGo|5389.000
Born2Fish|5400.000
jollystomper|5401.370
JohnDoe|5403.000
Maximus|5413.000
Toast|5432.000
HenryD|5432.100
Qs Laptop|5437.000
kgtest|5451.000
DektolMan|5463.000
MuirWannabe|5471.000
audreyh1|5485.000
cyber8888|5485.000
stephenson|5485.305
ducky911|5499.000
Flyfish1|5500.000
frayne|5500.000
goodguy1_64|5542.540
38Chevy454|5555.000
tulak|5555.000
racy|5600.000
SloHan|5628.400
freedomatlast|5657.000
NerviousNellie|5658.000
F.I.R.E user|6000.000
FloridaWizard|6100.000
sengsational|6101.000

 

[audreyh1]

Cool, thanks! I see I have ties.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

Nice Chart

There's a nice price is right value at 5659, but voting is closed by jollystomper edict.

Esteemed Guesser|Guess
GravitySucks|4237.000
madatrub|4401.000
Out-to-Lunch|4482.000
Taco|4488.000
Mr. Tightwad|4617.000
GrayHare|4617.000
a60dan|4769.830
Closet_Gamer|4800.000
yhoomajor|4932.000
teejayevans|4999.000
DrRoy|5000.000
Niuatoputapu|5008.000
MichealKnight|5025.000
ksr|5032.000
RetireAge50|5044.572
mickeyd|5053.320
Dtail|5104.000
FLSUnFIRE|5111.830
Hank|5130.000
Jerry1|5135.000
Martlet|5138.000
dmpi|5145.000
exnavynuke|5150.000
Dash man|5151.000
Enuff2Eat|5151.416
Jeffman52|5175.000
PatrickA5|5198.000
Onda|5200.000
Markola|5200.000
SecondCor521|5246.813
HI Bill|5270.000
Bigdawg|5279.000
freedom2022|5280.000
Bryan Barnfellow|5294.511
Gumby|5321.000
Chuckanut|5322.000
target2019|5342.200
Go-NoGo|5389.000
Born2Fish|5400.000
jollystomper|5401.370
JohnDoe|5403.000
Maximus|5413.000
Toast|5432.000
HenryD|5432.100
Qs Laptop|5437.000
kgtest|5451.000
DektolMan|5463.000
MuirWannabe|5471.000
audreyh1|5485.000
cyber8888|5485.000
stephenson|5485.305
ducky911|5499.000
Flyfish1|5500.000
frayne|5500.000
goodguy1_64|5542.540
38Chevy454|5555.000
tulak|5555.000
racy|5600.000
SloHan|5628.400
freedomatlast|5657.000
NerviousNellie|5658.000
F.I.R.E user|6000.000
FloridaWizard|6100.000
sengsational|6101.000

Thank you.

YTD almost 1%.... yeah

 

[karen1972]

So only 6 people think the market will go down this year. A little surprised at so much optimism, good to see.

 

[SecondCor521]

There's a nice price is right value at 5659, but voting is closed by jollystomper edict.

[Emphasis added.]

Next year I'll have to remember to guess $1.

 

[Enuff2Eat]

So only 6 people think the market will go down this year. A little surprised at so much optimism, good to see.

Most of us are delusional ?? LOL

wonder if we had a chart like this for

S&P 500 Prediction for 2022? hihihi

Enuff

 

[audreyh1]

So only 6 people think the market will go down this year. A little surprised at so much optimism, good to see.

FWIW, after a strong bear market year such as we had in 2022, it’s common that it is followed by a strong market gain year as we had in 2023, then yet another positive year but less strong.

However if demand drops, if we get a recession this year, all bets are off.

I just decided to go with trends.

 

[jollystomper]

My 2024 divisional assessment, based on the songs of Earth, Wind, & Fire.

For those folks whose names are marked with an *, your guess was estimated from your post, probably because you mentioned a percentage and not an exact number.

For those who made multiple predictions, I used the last value found (hopefully my python programming was accurate in picking this out ).

The "When" column is the timestamp of your post with the guess. Timestamps are EST.

Evil division	When	Guess
GravitySucks	12-29-2023 07:06 PM	4237
madatrub	01-01-2024 11:12 PM	4401
Out-to-Lunch	01-01-2024 11:46 AM	4482
Taco	12-31-2023 11:09 AM	4488

After The Love Has Gone division	When	Guess
Koolau*	01-04-2024 03:35 PM	4579.04
GrayHare	01-07-2024 05:25 PM	4617
Mr. Tightwad	01-04-2024 01:05 PM	4617
rayHare	12-29-2023 04:31 PM	4753

Thats The Way of the World division	When	Guess
a60dan	12-29-2023 08:24 PM	4769.83
Closet_Gamer	12-31-2023 09:43 AM	4800
yhoomajor	01-01-2024 10:36 PM	4932
teejayevans	01-02-2024 05:14 PM	4999
DrRoy	12-24-2023 06:26 AM	5000
Niuatoputapu	12-30-2023 02:15 AM	5008
MichealKnight	01-01-2024 09:43 PM	5025
ksr	12-29-2023 07:40 PM	5032
RetireAge50*	01-01-2024 11:03 PM	5044.57
mickeyd	12-29-2023 06:58 PM	5053.32

Sing a Song division	When	Guess
Dtail	12-29-2023 04:37 PM	5104
FLSUnFIRE	12-31-2023 11:19 AM	5111.83
Hank	12-31-2023 01:08 PM	5130
Jerry1	01-04-2024 12:48 PM	5135
Martlet	01-02-2024 10:43 AM	5138
dmpi	12-31-2023 05:39 PM	5145
Rickt	01-03-2024 01:16 PM	5149
exnavynuke	12-25-2023 06:41 PM	5150
Dash man	12-30-2023 12:10 PM	5151
Enuff2Eat*	12-26-2023 02:23 PM	5151.42
Jeffman52	01-05-2024 02:45 PM	5175
PatrickA5	12-31-2023 11:14 AM	5198
Markola	01-03-2024 11:16 AM	5200
Onda	12-24-2023 05:58 AM	5200
racy	12-24-2023 06:27 AM	5229

Mighty Mighty division	When	Guess
SecondCor521	12-29-2023 06:35 PM	5246.813
HI Bill	12-29-2023 10:03 PM	5270
Bigdawg	12-29-2023 05:44 PM	5279
freedom2022	12-29-2023 07:36 PM	5280
Bryan Barnfellow *	12-26-2023 10:18 AM	5294.51
Gumby	12-29-2023 07:10 PM	5321
Chuckanut	12-31-2023 12:11 PM	5322
target2019	01-01-2024 10:15 AM	5342.2
Go-NoGo	01-01-2024 10:20 AM	5389
Born2Fish	12-25-2023 11:46 AM	5400
jollystomper	01-03-2024 11:17 AM	5401.37
JohnDoe	12-31-2023 01:31 PM	5403
Maximus	01-04-2024 02:44 PM	5413
Toast	12-29-2023 10:07 PM	5432
HenryD	01-04-2024 02:58 PM	5432.1
Qs Laptop	01-01-2024 11:23 AM	5437
kgtest	12-29-2023 04:29 PM	5451
DektolMan	12-31-2023 07:19 PM	5463
MuirWannabe	12-31-2023 04:02 PM	5471

Let's Groove Division	When	Guess
audreyh1	12-29-2023 07:45 PM	5485
cyber888	12-31-2023 11:44 AM	5485
stephenson*	12-25-2023 06:34 PM	5485.31
ducky911	12-30-2023 12:05 PM	5499
Flyfish1	12-24-2023 06:19 AM	5500
frayne	12-24-2023 04:39 PM	5500
goodguy1_64	12-29-2023 04:08 PM	5542.54
38Chevy454	12-25-2023 06:47 PM	5555
tulak	12-30-2023 12:18 PM	5555
RetiredHappy	12-24-2023 10:53 AM	5600
SloHan	01-01-2024 12:19 PM	5628.4
freedomatlast	12-31-2023 10:03 AM	5657
NervousNellie	12-31-2023 06:12 PM	5658

Shining Star division	When	Guess
F.I.R.E User	12-23-2023 09:56 PM	6000
FloridaWizard	01-03-2024 10:25 AM	6100
sengsational	01-07-2024 04:38 PM	6101

 

[audreyh1]

Nice!

One of my most favorite bands too.

 

[Out-to-Lunch]

I hope I lose big time!

 

[sengsational]

My 2024 divisional assessment, based on the songs of Earth, Wind, & Fire. ...

Excellent categories.
You might look at posts

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-4.html#post3032680

and

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-5.html#post3033124


I sent a message to RetireAge50 because dividends are an unspecified variable.


https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-5.html#post3033381

 

[jollystomper]

Excellent categories.
You might look at posts

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-4.html#post3032680

and

https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-5.html#post3033124


I sent a message to RetireAge50 because dividends are an unspecified variable.


https://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/s-and-p-500-prediction-2024-a-120348-5.html#post3033381

Thanks, thats what a quickly hacked together python program does...


Will post an update before the playoff games start today.


EDIT UPDATE: The initial post could still be edited, so the 2 missing guesses have been added, thanks again.

 

[GravitySucks]

Hmmmm

Only 10% guesses are in negative territory while the 2023 guesses had about 30% of us guessing we would have a negative year.

Irrational Exuberance

 

[sengsational]

Recency bias.