Who here is getting close to capitulation? (Or how much more can you stomach?)

[ikubak]

Still working and still pouring money down the rat hole.

 

[crazy connie]

I am getting close to lacing my morning coffee that I enjoy when the pre-market opens. The IRA which I am drawing a 72T from is down about 30% from it's summer time high. The 401K is still at Mega Corp and down 40% from the summer but over 50% YTD. I buy and sell a bit each week and try to keep a few stocks in the green. If this keeps up I may have to seek employment late next year. If it stabilizes within the next 10% to 20% I can hang tough and ride it out.

Thank God I built the wetbar into my home office! Just call me the tipsy trader!

PS I forgot the fun account! A baby Roth (2 years of contributions) I started trading in the month of August. Last week it was up over 100% YTD then the losses hit. It is still up 60% YTD. Now if markets calm a good bit I can start growing it and the others again!

 

[bbbamI]

Hangin' in ... hangin' out ... and hangin' on ......

 

[blanston]

buy-buy-buy

I am down 23% ytd! I think there is a lot of capitulation going on. Wish there were more! It would make me feel better about buying! Just prior to close of buisness today- I purchased Citi, BofA, GE,Ford and GM. They are much cheaper than they were.

 

[harley]

I'm not paying too much attention to the day to day numbers, get most of that info here. Been reading madly working on my asset allocation, trying to understand bonds and also working on my tax situation for this year, seeing if we are poor enough to convert some money to a Roth. Trying to get some info from my soon-to-be-ex FA so I can make good decisions about bailing on the investments I'm in with him in order to move all my (remaining) money over to Vanguard.

I see this situation as an opportunity for me to remedy some poor decisions made over the years. I know it's painful, but since it's happening anyway I'm going to make the best of it.

I'm also sort of hoping this situation does for us (Boomers and later generations) what the GD did for our grandparents. Not scaring them out of the market forever, but teaching them about frugality, LBYM, staying out of debt, and for God's sake, quit believing the advertising industry! I don't know if it will, we're the golden children of God (in our own minds), but we can use the wake up call.

Anyway, as I said, the situation is happening no matter what I want, so I'm going to do the best I can with what I've got.

 

[Spanky]

I plan to rebalance at the end of the year and to consolidate funds into a couple of funds, i.e., Vanguard World Index.

It used to be fun to update my portfolio when the market was up. Now I try to avoid updating it.

 

[Spanky]

I am down 23% ytd! I think there is a lot of capitulation going on. Wish there were more! It would make me feel better about buying! Just prior to close of buisness today- I purchased Citi, BofA, GE,Ford and GM. They are much cheaper than they were.

They may become cheaper, but they are cheap, however.

 

[Urchina]

I won't capitulate until someone turns the lights out.

 

[growing_older]

Losses are too great to capitulate now. I did start holding cash and exercised a HELOC to get some extra cash which I am holding as a precaution against job loss. Now that I have enough in hand to tide me over even a lengthy job hunt, I'm back to buying into the market with extra cash. Sometime I want to think about changing my asset allocation to be more conservative, but until then my stock allocation is way down from target, so that's where the new money goes.

 

[RonBoyd]

Even though it [-]feels [/-]seems like this:

YouTube - SURF THE EPIC WAVE -- MIKE PARSONS - LAIRD HAMILTON

I will stick it out...

 

[gandalf42]

If I had lost a 10th through gambling of what I am down in the market, I would consider myself a gambling addict and find a clinic to check myself into.

yet this is considered "investing" and so much more respectable!

I can see myself standing in front of a group of folks...

Hello, I'm Mike and I am an investor...

Group reply... "Hello Mike.."

Guess I'm not cured yet. I've been sticking it out. (But tomorrows going to be great! Right? Hello? Right?)

 

[tuixiu]

I'm with the "still working and pouring money in" crowd. My distaste for selling equities for cash that I don't need right now is much worse than it is for possibly having to work longer before I retire.

 

[tightasadrum]

People have been saying for years that the Baby Boomers would take the market lower when they started to retire because they had so much money in the equity market. Makes me wonder how much of this continuing drop is from BB heading for the sidelines.

I've stumbled into my own "sleep better" AA. I say stumbled because it all occurred in a random way through thinking of asset money differently depending on how I acquired it.

Bucket one, 401K, which is now a 201K: Gave about 25% (12% assets) to Fido to manage in a growth AA and stopped obsessing about it. Yea, they charge for that, but that fee seems small compared to the overall drop. And I did it to see if I could beat the experts in a down market. So far, I'm ahead of them about 1-2%.

Bucket two is the rest (28% assets) of the 201K money: well allocated in equities, foreign and domestic; REITS, foreign and domestic; emerging markets; commodity futures; and cash, for additional purchases when the market drops (I never imagined THIS much drop though, but I've been easing the cash money into the market on drops).

Bucket three, after tax money (35% assets): ten years of cushion I think, depending on inflation rate. Although this is way too much in cash, I think of this as my "sleep better at night" money. I need to find some better income instruments for this bucket, but it's hard to catch my breath while the roller coaster is dropping like it is.

Bucket four, rental property (20% assets? who knows): this one has been one of the wisest moves I've made, and it's the only active decision I made. It spins off lots of my expense covering income while paying off the loans with other people's money. How cool is that! Of course it redefines what retirement means. This one causes more restless nights than the market from collecting rent, general maintenance and repairs. But as I've said before, you gotta do something in retirement.

Bucket five, pension ( non-COLA'd): not much to fret over here. I'm deferring it until 65 to get 100%. That way I can stick it to the old company once more. Of course if they go under, I'm the stuckee. You roll the wheel and takes your chances I suppose.

Bucket six, social security: I'm waiting until 66 unless I find that I'm burning off too much cash to cover expenses. So far, so good.

Bucket seven, gold/silver/EE bonds and misc IRA's and ROTH IRA's (~5%): just in case the fed monetizes the debt and dollar out of virtual existence.

I haven't seen this kind of AA anywhere, but it allows me to sleep. I notice the market is dropping again this morning. I think we're entering a zone where overall market values are rapidly over-correcting. It's probably a good time to buy if you can overcome Mr. Fear. Sorry for the novel-sized entry, but it's too cold to go outside yet.

 

[lucija]

It's way to late to pull out of equities at this point. On the up side (of the downward slide), we're loosing less and less with each market drop. So, we'll ride this one out... we have at least another 10 yrs to go (optimistically looking).

At this point, our holdings are approximately 80% equities and 20% cash/stable value. Our contributions are set as 100% equities. I just finished re-balancing and I will not be doing any additional re-balancing for a long long time, regardless of the market movements. At this point I don't have any fixed instruments I can part with - the stable value is non-exchangeable within my 401k and I am holding on to the rest of the cash (in out taxable account) as an extra precaution (in addition to our emergency funds) in case of unemployment. In case of the up-swing, we'll let equities grow as much as possible.

 

[shotgunner]

If I had lost a 10th through gambling of what I am down in the market, I would consider myself a gambling addict and find a clinic to check myself into.

yet this is considered "investing" and so much more respectable!

Well many people believe investing in stocks is gambling.

You just wait, desire to be an early retiree will soon be listed as a disorder in the DSM. Aphetamines will be prescribed along with forced labor. Therapy will be ongoing, both individual and group. "Hello may name is Pete and I have a problem"

It's surely coming because somebody will make money on the medical care and scholarly research around it.

 

[slazenger]

I see this all as just another gut check for the way stocks work and have always worked. Our last reminder wasn't all that long ago (00-02').

We've all heard it a million times, but you have to think of stocks providing an approximate return that's higher than other investments over a long period of time. If we could hypothetically see a graph of the S&P through 2038, we'd be able to draw a straight line through the peaks and valleys and it would most likely show a competitive growth rate. But we all know, or show know, that there's gonna be a lot of peaks and troughs on the way there. If you can't live with that reality and fact, you really have no business owning stocks in the first place. Much better to have decided beforehand you can live with ~50% loss of your portfolio, than to actually experience it then sell out. Anyone who didn't already know this could have happened at any point and time was naive at best.

With the stock market at moderate valuations today (viewed historically), it actually could "half" even one more time (meaning S&P 500 at 400) and not be inconsistent with at least one point in the past.

 

[Retire Soon]

I bought BAC and GE yesterday. I believe stock is very cheap now and may become even cheaper. Between my pension and cash on hand, I can weather the storm for another seven years, without having to sell equities or w*rking. So I will continue to take the advice of Jack Bogle, and "stay the course."

 

[Bestwifeever]

Mmmmm, amphetamines..... We'll all be skinny!

 

[freebird5825]

Well many people believe investing in stocks is gambling.

You just wait, desire to be an early retiree will soon be listed as a disorder in the DSM. Aphetamines will be prescribed along with forced labor. Therapy will be ongoing, both individual and group. "Hello may name is Pete and I have a problem"

It's surely coming because somebody will make money on the medical care and scholarly research around it.

<Mister Rogers voice> can you say DAYTRADER ? i knew you could.

 

[harley]

Well, I just put in an order for more GE at $12. I'm wiped out of cash now in my individual stocks (gambling) fund. I have great faith that in the long run I'll make tons of money (relatively) from buying these great companies when they are dirt cheap. I hope it happens in the next couple of years, though. I'd hate to have to wait 10 years. But I'm holding forever, more than likely.

 

[Gardnr]

Well, I just put in an order for more GE at $12. I'm wiped out of cash now in my individual stocks (gambling) fund. I have great faith that in the long run I'll make tons of money (relatively) from buying these great companies when they are dirt cheap. I hope it happens in the next couple of years, though. I'd hate to have to wait 10 years. But I'm holding forever, more than likely.

I picked up some BP at $41. Pays 8.2% div and even with the drop in oil prices I'm optimistic that they'll have the cash flow to keep paying. I've thought about some more GE but the whole financial side still gives me the willies. Good luck, I hope it turns out well. I own some at 19.50.

 

[siamamerican]

I'm retiring next month and decided to get back into the stocks late Monday this week. I've been trading in and out of the market all year and was actually up 4% by end of day Monday. Just doubled my position today 10 minutes before the markets closed. Now I'm 40% in stocks and will add another 20% if the S&P drops below 680.

I received a much larger severance than expected (not paid until early next year), which has increased my appetite for risk. Have no idea where the bottom is, but decided I'm in a perfect position ( pure luck ) to take advantage of the cheap prices. Will be keeping 5-10 years in cash.

I'm sorry for those that are near retirement and have lost a large portion of their savings. With time and perseverance, I expect all will end well.

 

[chinaco]

You know capitulation has occurred when you start vomiting from the violent drops on the stock market roller coaster.

Anyone figured out how to get it to stop capitulating?? I am feeling queasy!

Actually... I think we are seeing it now... but it is drawn out. Investors are expecting another shoe to drop (US Auto Industry failure). Plus there is still much fear and loathing about the economic numbers. And on top of that no one knows what the impact of all of those CDS will do if other businesses begin to fail or the NEW at risk JUNK bonds have no buyers.


IMO - to step off now would be the worst thing to do. Ever try getting off of a roller coaster as it is careening down its highest point? Hopefully you do not have money in the stock market you will need for the next 5-10 years.

I am sticking with the plan. Once the volatility settles down, I will rebalance (buy low/sell high). I would like to catch it at the bottom.. but I am not even going to try (I know I will miss). So if i miss the first move and get whipsawed, it does not matter, it is a long-term investment. 5-7 years out from that point I rebalance I am expecting the market to be trending up... [I am willing to take the risk]

This market will certainly test your confidence and nerves. If you want some comfort... look back at the great depression. Here is a thread from Rich on the recovery. http://www.early-retirement.org/forums/f28/recovery-times-after-the-great-depression-39558.html

 

[Dawg52]

Well, I just put in an order for more GE at $12. I'm wiped out of cash now in my individual stocks (gambling) fund. I have great faith that in the long run I'll make tons of money (relatively) from buying these great companies when they are dirt cheap. I hope it happens in the next couple of years, though. I'd hate to have to wait 10 years. But I'm holding forever, more than likely.

I bought some at $30, sold at $25. I feel like a genius.

 

[REWahoo]

I bought some at $30, sold at $25. I feel like a genius.

Uh...Dawg, I believe the correct term in this situation is you feel like a 'suineg'. It's the same as feeling like a genius, only in reverse.

Did I ever mention I'm a charter member of Asnem?