Herd Immunity in the US out of Reach

[audreyh1]

Last year we spent several days quarantined in our interior state room on the Princess cruise anchored in SF bay. We then spent four days quarantined under supervision of Federal Marshals at Dobbins Air Base. (We were issued an Official Quarantine Order from the CDC - suitable for framing. ) We then were allowed to finish our quarantine at home.

Needless to say, when we were offered the vaccine earlier this year, we ran, not walked, to the vaccine site!

Wow, had no idea you were caught on that ship! I bet you’re delighted to be vaccinated.

 

[harllee]

It seems to me there is a simple solution -- pay people to get the vaccine. It might only take $100 per shot to get many people to take the vaccine. It would cost the government some money in the sort run but there would be a huge savings in the long run. At my mother's CCRC 95% of the staff got the vaccine after small bonuses were offered to those who got vaccinated. There are a few people who will not get the shot no matter what you offer them, but I think many people are just lazy and need a little incentive.

 

[USGrant1962]

I just got back from Home Depot and was surprised there was a pop-up vax clinic in the mall parking lot. There were about 200 cars in line, and when we came out of the store maybe 15 mins later the line was about 1/3 shorter. So they were moving very quickly and vaxing a lot of people in the part of town where a lot of our Hispanic immigrants live (minorities have had low vax rates).

Around here, the vax has gone local with every doc office and pharmacy now receiving vaccines. I assume there is less demand at the mass vax centers partially due to that.

Anyway, we're still averaging above 2M shots a day nationally so IMO a lot of this panic (and name calling) about vaccination percentages seems premature.

 

[flintnational]

Wow, had no idea you were caught on that ship! I bet you’re delighted to be vaccinated.

Yes, a few days of quarantine will make you appreciate a vaccine.

Some of our less intelligent friends and family asked why we did not get a balcony. I advised them we would have if we knew we were going to be quarantined!

 

[Gumby]

As of yesterday, Connecticut is the first state in the US to have over 50% of the adult population (18+) fully vaccinated. And an additional 19% have received their first dose. So in 4 weeks, we ought to have 69% of the adult population fully vaccinated. And they're still giving out vaccinations at a rate of 32k per day, which is slightly over 1% of the adult population per day.

I think we can get to 75%, and assuming that children will eventually be vaccinated in similar numbers, then the vaccination program, coupled with immunity acquired from prior infection, should have us well into herd immunity. So I remain hopeful for our state.

The other New England states and NY and NJ are all hot on the heels of Connecticut, so things are likely to be almost normal here in the very near future. Sadly, however, we can't wall ourselves off from the rest of the country, so I'd like everyone else to get with the program too.

 

[RAE]

People getting the virus gives them antibodies and T-cell memory. That leads us closer to herd immunity. Just keep in mind that herd immunity does not mean it will disappear but that it will become more rare.

Yes......a lot of these herd immunity projections ignore the fact that a whole lot of people have already had COVID and recovered from it, and most of those people have the T-cells and B-cells that give them a good amount of immunity (which may last a long time, based on a few studies I have read recently). Sure, the virus will continue to mutate, but I have not seen any good evidence that any of these variants are likely to make large numbers of people who have already had COVID, seriously ill. My guess is that, between the vaccine and those people who've recovered from COVID, we will eventually get to a place where COVID is still around, but much less of a problem that it has been so far. The virus will eventually not be able to find too many unprotected people, at least in places like the U.S. I think you could see that kind of situation happening within the next couple months in parts of the NE USA (New York, New Jersey), which were among the earliest places with serious virus outbreaks. It's unrealistic to think that the virus will be completely eradicated, but that doesn't mean we all have to live in fear of it for the rest of our lives either.

Here is an article from early February which estimated the number of people who had already had COVID in the USA at 83 million, by that time. We're almost 3 months beyond that time now, so the real number today is most certainly quite a bit higher.

https://www.acsh.org/news/2021/02/0...covid-infections-has-major-implications-15330

 

[Ronstar]

....Evolution will sort it all out.

+1. It always has. And it will in this case too. This situation is just a modern day twist.

 

[MichaelB]

As of yesterday, Connecticut is the first state in the US to have over 50% of the adult population (18+) fully vaccinated. And an additional 19% have received their first dose. So in 4 weeks, we ought to have 69% of the adult population fully vaccinated. And they're still giving out vaccinations at a rate of 32k per day, which is slightly over 1% of the adult population per day.

I think we can get to 75%, and assuming that children will eventually be vaccinated in similar numbers, then the vaccination program, coupled with immunity acquired from prior infection, should have us well into herd immunity. So I remain hopeful for our state.

The other New England states and NY and NJ are all hot on the heels of Connecticut, so things are likely to be almost normal here in the very near future. Sadly, however, we can't wall ourselves off from the rest of the country, so I'd like everyone else to get with the program too.

Connecticut is an example for the rest of us. People collaborating, the State executing a challenging project with speed and excellence, combined public / private initiative, pragmatism and the public good in place of petty politics. Well done.

 

[LRDave]

Connecticut is an example for the rest of us. People collaborating, the State executing a challenging project with speed and excellence, combined public / private initiative, pragmatism and the public good in place of petty politics. Well done.

+1

 

[JDARNELL]

Connecticut is an example for the rest of us. People collaborating, the State executing a challenging project with speed and excellence, combined public / private initiative, pragmatism and the public good in place of petty politics. Well done.

I guess it’s all about perspective and the “public good.” I have not had the vaccine yet and at this point I am in a holding pattern. I was actually in Singapore when things went sideways. Entire family had the virus last January and other than smell have recovered. Smell is still in and out.

I just saw a message that they are considering a 4th stimulus for people that have received the jab. Yeah ok. Probably wishful thinking by some but being FI the carrot is not big enough and the hammer isn’t there.

As for getting the jab the catalyst will probably be when we are ready to travel internationally or I can get ground truth on the impact of getting it not getting the jab. To much disinformation on all sides and it being pushed down my throat everywhere I turn via public service announcements. After 20 plus years in uniform and watching the anthrax fiasco unfold while on AD I’ll let this one play out a little more.

But everyone do what is best for you.

 

[ivinsfan]

I guess it’s all about perspective and the “public good.” I have not had the vaccine yet and at this point I am in a holding pattern. I was actually in Singapore when things went sideways. Entire family had the virus last January and other than smell have recovered. Smell is still in and out.

I just saw a message that they are considering a 4th stimulus for people that have received the jab. Yeah ok. Probably wishful thinking by some but being FI the carrot is not big enough and the hammer isn’t there.

As for getting the jab the catalyst will probably be when we are ready to travel internationally or I can get ground truth on the impact of getting it not getting the jab. To much disinformation on all sides and it being pushed down my throat everywhere I turn via public service announcements. After 20 plus years in uniform and watching the anthrax fiasco unfold while on AD I’ll let this one play out a little more.

But everyone do what is best for you.

You mean my idea made it to DC already

 

[disneysteve]

There are places already doing cash incentives for vaccination. There are also many companies offering perks. You can get a free Krispy Kreme donut EVERY DAY if you show your vaccination card.


Regarding the EUA, I really don't know what they're waiting for. Nearly 250 million doses have been given so far. Are they going to wait until the whole country is already vaccinated before they give full approval? It will be nice to have full approval because, as noted, that will allow places to require the vaccine for work or school.

 

[teetee]

It is not a perspective debate. The science is never different from different perspective.

It is cause and effect. The difficulty, which usually led to argument and thread lock in the forum is finding the factor that changes the outcome or dictates the general direction of the future.

No mask wearing and 22% children plus 22% anti vaxers put the population below herd immunity required threshold which allows the virus to spread and continue to mutate.

Once the lucky variant that has high R0 and is resistant to the vaccine starts to spread and becomes dominant, human will need another 8mo to come up with the new vaccine targeting the variant. Before that, no one is safe from it.

Rinse and repeat. One thing I learned from the past is most of us never learn from the past. Perhaps after a more deadly variant removes a few millions of lives off the face of the earth then there may be some hope to change where this is heading. Or have the consecutive variants targeting different age groups so no one feels safe before they start taking it as a real enemy.

577k deaths is far from 331m total us popularion. That is why people couldn't take it seriously.

 

[JDARNELL]

It is not a perspective debate. The science is never different from different perspective.

577k deaths is far from 331m total us popularion. That is why people couldn't take it seriously.

Correct but how you view how a state is doing relative to others states is as the post I was referring to comes from an author who supports his POV while different than mine. I can respectively disagree as he can.

I’m married to a PhD statistician who did her training and publications in various biostatistic related areas across various medical conditions and ethnic groups. We have frequent conversations about what the data is showing as compared to the rhetoric we are bombarded with from celebrities and the self righteous. The messaging on this from the beginning has not been coherent and confusing. Time will tell.

 

[teetee]

Correct but how you view how a state is doing relative to others states is as the post I was referring to comes from an author who supports his POV while different than mine. I can respectively disagree as he can.

I’m married to a PhD statistician who did her training and publications in various biostatistic related areas across various medical conditions and ethnic groups. We have frequent conversations about what the data is showing as compared to the rhetoric we are bombarded with from celebrities and the self righteous. The messaging on this from the beginning has not been coherent and confusing. Time will tell.

Doing a covid vaccination handling performance comparison between different states sounds like an interesting topic to focus on but I can not say I have any clue where to start or if such comparison means much in the current environment.

It is stasticians' job to make things comparable. The debate is between the experts. Others should just keep getting vaccinated to keep themselves and their community safer from the virus.

If anyone wants nothing to do with vaccines or are just observing, skip them. People are still getting infected and dying from the virus everyday.

Vaccination provides an active method to fight the virus off and reduce the chance for many potential and deadlier future strands from emerging that will likely kill more and harder to develope vaccine against (same with antibiotic resistance - life finds its way. Though we can't really categorize viruses as being alive they replicate rather than reproduce). Those are facts. I don't see a reason to wait.

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

A year ago last month my doctor told me that because we were closing the schools there was little hope of ever getting herd immunity.

His belief was that since children were highly unlikely to be mortally affected it was best for them to get Covid and be done with it; no vaccine required.

He felt that if we take too long for vaccinating everyone--especially children--mutations would make it a never ending whack-a-mole.

And here we are.

Not best though, for other family members of the children, teachers, and other school staff.

It's just problematic to pick the sacrificial lambs.

 

[teetee]

Not best though, for other family members of the children, teachers, and other school staff.

It's just problematic to pick the sacrificial lambs.

It is a crazy proposal (let young people get infected if they are not likely to die). Some how in those peoples' minds the opposite of rate of mortality is the rate of full recovery.

Google covid long haulers to see why that proposal is dangerous (and to be honest, is just an extension of the initial herd immunity talking points from early 2020).

 

[RAE]

I guess it’s all about perspective and the “public good.” I have not had the vaccine yet and at this point I am in a holding pattern. I was actually in Singapore when things went sideways. Entire family had the virus last January and other than smell have recovered. Smell is still in and out.

I just saw a message that they are considering a 4th stimulus for people that have received the jab. Yeah ok. Probably wishful thinking by some but being FI the carrot is not big enough and the hammer isn’t there.

As for getting the jab the catalyst will probably be when we are ready to travel internationally or I can get ground truth on the impact of getting it not getting the jab. To much disinformation on all sides and it being pushed down my throat everywhere I turn via public service announcements. After 20 plus years in uniform and watching the anthrax fiasco unfold while on AD I’ll let this one play out a little more.

But everyone do what is best for you.

Thank you for your perspective on this, JDarnell. My wife and I also had COVID (about a year ago now), and we have both recovered completely. We are also not anxious to get the vaccine at this point. I don't want to get into all of our reasons, but they are valid reasons to us (and I have read all of the studies on COVID, believe me). I spent my career in science, and I believe in science, but science is a learning process, and this virus and vaccine are too new for anyone to be making definitive statements about any of it. Like you, I do resent the editorials and public service announcements that categorize people like my wife and me as morons who have no concern for the rest of humanity. On the contrary, we are both careful when we are around others, we wear our masks when in public and will continue to do so. If invited to a friend's house or other indoor space, we let people know that we have not yet had the vaccine, and they can then decide if they want us to attend or not. We are not offended if the answer is no. Based on the numerous studies I have reviewed so far, I'm confident that we both have pretty strong immunity to COVID (at least as good as the vaccine would provide), but as I said, the science is young, and if things change, we will certainly reconsider our position. I expect that others will not agree with our decision, and that's okay. As you said, everyone needs to do what is best for them.

 

[audreyh1]

There are places already doing cash incentives for vaccination. There are also many companies offering perks. You can get a free Krispy Kreme donut EVERY DAY if you show your vaccination card.


Regarding the EUA, I really don't know what they're waiting for. Nearly 250 million doses have been given so far. Are they going to wait until the whole country is already vaccinated before they give full approval? It will be nice to have full approval because, as noted, that will allow places to require the vaccine for work or school.

The companies have to supply additional paperwork to the FDA. I imagine they are working on it.

 

[Another Reader]

It is a crazy proposal (let young people get infected if they are not likely to die). Some how in those peoples' minds the opposite of rate of mortality is the rate of full recovery.

Google covid long haulers to see why that proposal is dangerous (and to be honest, is just an extension of the initial herd immunity talking points from early 2020).

One of my Covid buddies has an 18 month old long hauler. Got it at three months. Developmentally delayed - still not talking - and lots of health problems that baffle the pediatricians. Never tested, so Covid is not considered. There are multiple support groups devoted to children with long Covid. Yeah, let's sentence small children to this living hell.

 

[Another Reader]

Thank you for your perspective on this, JDarnell. My wife and I also had COVID (about a year ago now), and we have both recovered completely. We are also not anxious to get the vaccine at this point. I don't want to get into all of our reasons, but they are valid reasons to us (and I have read all of the studies on COVID, believe me). I spent my career in science, and I believe in science, but science is a learning process, and this virus and vaccine are too new for anyone to be making definitive statements about any of it. Like you, I do resent the editorials and public service announcements that categorize people like my wife and me as morons who have no concern for the rest of humanity. On the contrary, we are both careful when we are around others, we wear our masks when in public and will continue to do so. If invited to a friend's house or other indoor space, we let people know that we have not yet had the vaccine, and they can then decide if they want us to attend or not. We are not offended if the answer is no. Based on the numerous studies I have reviewed so far, I'm confident that we both have pretty strong immunity to COVID (at least as good as the vaccine would provide), but as I said, the science is young, and if things change, we will certainly reconsider our position. I expect that others will not agree with our decision, and that's okay. As you said, everyone needs to do what is best for them.

Studies? Did you get the antibody test? A strongly positive antibody test would give you some support for your decision. A lot of previously infected people in Brazil got the variant, as their immune systems did not recognize the variant, so that's something else to consider.

 

[USGrant1962]

The companies have to supply additional paperwork to the FDA. I imagine they are working on it.

I suspect "The companies" aren't the holdup...

 

[RetiredAt55.5]

There are places already doing cash incentives for vaccination. There are also many companies offering perks. You can get a free Krispy Kreme donut EVERY DAY if you show your vaccination card.

LOL, if I ate a Krispy Kreme donut everyday, I'd have qualified to get the vaccine much sooner!

Maybe I can use this to prepare for the next pandemic!

 

[NW-Bound]

A year ago last month my doctor told me that because we were closing the schools there was little hope of ever getting herd immunity.

His belief was that since children were highly unlikely to be mortally affected it was best for them to get Covid and be done with it; no vaccine required.

He felt that if we take too long for vaccinating everyone--especially children--mutations would make it a never ending whack-a-mole.

And here we are.

Not best though, for other family members of the children, teachers, and other school staff...

Perhaps the doctor was thinking that the sick kids could be quarantined together in a government-run installation, in order to keep their families safe?

 

[Freedom56]

Since the lockdowns last year, we had one home at the end of our cul-de-sac that held massive parities and disregarded all the rules. Two weeks ago they held another massive party. The lady in the house indicated to my wife a few weeks ago that she was never going to get vaccinated and didn't see any reason to do so. Tonight we saw a swarm of paramedics and the fire department vehicles heading to the end of the street. After about 20 minutes , they carried the husband and wife out on stretchers with oxygen masks on. One neighbor who lives next to those people and who appears to the neighborhood broadcast news system said that both had trouble breathing but the woman was in pretty bad shape as her blood oxygen level dropped to 55%. What are chances that COVID finally caught up with them?