The Cryptocurrency Thread

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It is noteworthy (but not reported in typical mainstream reports), that the Court did not actually rule he was Satoshi, nor that he actually had the coins he claimed he had. Rather only that if he did have the Sats he claims he has, he does not need to hand these over to the party who filed the claim.
I didn't realize that, it's a subtle but vital point.

Whoever Satoshi is, they recently lost $20 billion as Bitcoin fell in value. It's odd that someone who is one of the 20 richest people in the world leaves this vast wealth untouched.
https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoins-c...to-now-a-member-top-20-worlds-richest-people/
 
Which are your doubt free investments?

The article makes the point that this person has nothing to do with Bitcoin.

Vanguard Wellington Fund has been around since 1929. Fidelity was founded 75 years ago. They have a history of performance.

"Mr. Bitcoin" won't even identify himself.
 
"Mr. Bitcoin" won't even identify himself.


Maybe he died? It is a mystery why none of those Bitcoin have moved. And if they suddenly went on sale it would be a unique event. So I accept there is doubt.

I do not accept there is no doubt in other investments. We all know stocks go down 50% at times.

I allow for 85% drawdown in crypto, 50% stocks and plan accordingly with long bond, gold, real estate etc to create diversity.

How would you balance crypto risk?
 
Maybe he died? It is a mystery why none of those Bitcoin have moved. And if they suddenly went on sale it would be a unique event. So I accept there is doubt.

I do not accept there is no doubt in other investments. We all know stocks go down 50% at times.

I allow for 85% drawdown in crypto, 50% stocks and plan accordingly with long bond, gold, real estate etc to create diversity.

How would you balance crypto risk?

By avoiding it. But I've played the game and basically won -- I expect to die with money to leave behind to my kid. I've been retired since 2013, DW since 2008.

We have a lot of money in individual municipal bonds, most of which I bought a number of years ago while they were attractive. On the equity side, we go with index funds and index ETFs. DW's IRA holds the aforementioned Wellington fund, among others. Jack Bogle's observation to buy the market rather than the stock is a rule to live by, IMO.

Many people on this forum held onto their investments through the Great Recession and came out ahead -- the trick was not to fall victim to fear and/or greed. Slow and steady wins the race.

The US dollar has survived a couple revolutions in central banking, a handful of "great depressions" and a civil war. I expect that private-sector banking institutions eventually will adopt blockchain in its transaction technology, but based on established currency. To a great degree our money system has already gone digital; I spend actual green dollars about once every couple weeks, and usually for trivial transactions.
 
^^^^^^. It is getting hard to ignore that there will only ever be 21 million Bitcoin, with about 19 million already in circulation. This limited supply lends itself well to buy-and-hold investors if we choose to swim in this new asset pool. Of course, the kids don’t call it buy and hold, but HODL. You buy and then Hang On for Dear Life through the wild ride!
 
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The Bitcoin limit is only meaningful if Bitcoin is meaningful of course.

There is a good argument that says there will only ever be 14-15 mill Bitcoin as so many are already lost.

I also built our retirement money slow and steady with index funds and rental property.

Bitcoin and Crypto is something worth being more than zero in my diversified portfolio.

I think
 
Interesting item on Bloomberg yesterday:

The coming crypto crash
Bitcoin was swinging between gains and losses following one of the biggest one-day selloffs of 2021. Crypto was finally embraced by many institutions in 2021, but next year is looking less rosy. Money-managers are warning that the controversial, volatile asset class is ripe for a big selloff. Almost three-quarters of institutions said in a new poll that crypto isn’t an appropriate investment for most retail investors, with digital assets a “top contender” for a “major correction.”
 
The Bitcoin limit is only meaningful if Bitcoin is meaningful of course.

There is a good argument that says there will only ever be 14-15 mill Bitcoin as so many are already lost.

I also built our retirement money slow and steady with index funds and rental property.

Bitcoin and Crypto is something worth being more than zero in my diversified portfolio.

I think



Interesting. Assume your average that 14.5 million will effectively ever be in existence, because the keys have been lost*, less the 2 million that haven’t been mined yet = 12.5 in existence now. I also saw somewhere on YouTube that 85% of Bitcoin owners are hodling (buy and holding) it. I have no idea how credible that statement is but, if true, that would mean only about 1.9 million have active utility, are in motion, being traded, converted to fiat, etc. However, the balance of 10.6 million could be staked, i.e. used as collateral for loans of various sorts, including margin loans for Bitcoin traders.

I have an open mind and am just learning but a genuine question: I can glimpse the potential utility and great velocity of money of Bitcoin, and am aware that software is being developed rapidly to provide it more utility in the economy, but are some internal debt bubbles among leveraged Bitcoin holders going to be punctured? I don’t know how widely Bitcoin is staked but I do see it referenced. If widely, it seems a risk to the Bitcoin spot price.

* This poor chap in Wales is trying to get the authorities to let him excavate the local dump, where he believes his key to $500 million in Bitcoin resides. This poor man will have to endure Lord of the Rings level mental torture for his whole life!. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/12/13/half-a-billion-in-bitcoin-lost-in-the-dump
 
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By avoiding it. But I've played the game and basically won -- I expect to die with money to leave behind to my kid. I've been retired since 2013, DW since 2008.

We have a lot of money in individual municipal bonds, most of which I bought a number of years ago while they were attractive. On the equity side, we go with index funds and index ETFs. DW's IRA holds the aforementioned Wellington fund, among others. Jack Bogle's observation to buy the market rather than the stock is a rule to live by, IMO.

Many people on this forum held onto their investments through the Great Recession and came out ahead -- the trick was not to fall victim to fear and/or greed. Slow and steady wins the race.

The US dollar has survived a couple revolutions in central banking, a handful of "great depressions" and a civil war. I expect that private-sector banking institutions eventually will adopt blockchain in its transaction technology, but based on established currency. To a great degree our money system has already gone digital; I spend actual green dollars about once every couple weeks, and usually for trivial transactions.

You may be missing the point here. Yes the USD has "survived" although in a greatly weakened (and ever weakening) state (in terms of purchasing power). Bitcoin is an asset that defends against that. This does not mean that the USD will be replaced per se. Indeed, quite the opposite, it will continue to be used to transact, but as a store of value vs a declining USD, BTC will be the key asset class. This applies also to any digital USD.
 
are some internal debt bubbles among leveraged Bitcoin holders going to be punctured?



Certainly in the last 10 days we have seen large drops in the Bitcoin price as a cascade of leverage traders got taken out. Invest answers on YouTube covered this recently. I think it was his “Are we at the bottom” video
 
You may be missing the point here. Yes the USD has "survived" although in a greatly weakened (and ever weakening) state (in terms of purchasing power). Bitcoin is an asset that defends against that. This does not mean that the USD will be replaced per se. Indeed, quite the opposite, it will continue to be used to transact, but as a store of value vs a declining USD, BTC will be the key asset class. This applies also to any digital USD.

I think you need a history lesson. Currency inflation is a feature, not a bug, of the world's economy. When currencies were based on the value of precious metals like gold, the world went through financial panics every couple decades -- 1873, 1893, 1907, 1929. That's when bank failures would cost depositors their life savings, during periods of DEflation.

The major concern among economists during the Great Recession circa 2008 was that the economy would fall into a deflationary spiral, as it did in the early 1930s. That's why the government inflated the currency -- credit had dried up, reducing what is known as the credit multiplier in the money supply. Did the policy extend too long, do too much? I'll skip that debate to avoid Porky and a lock on this thread.

Is inflation up this year? Sure. I lived through the '70s, and I can tell you from experience that this is nothing compared to that decade. That's the benefit of being 67 and cranky vs. 37 and happy -- you gain some perspective.
 
You are correct that inflation is a feature of the current economic system.

What we have in play here is a system that requires ever increasing levels of debt and money printing that is in opposition to the deflationary force caused by an exponential rate of advance in technology.

We have long passed the sustainable debt to GDP ratio and allowing deflation to have the upper hand would cause the collateral backing the many different debt bubbles to drop. The result would probably make the great depression seem like a walk in the park.

Given this situation it is likely that the currency devaluation will continue and it will have to increase at an exponential rate if it is going to continue to offset the technological advance driven deflation as it has been doing.

I find that very scary.
 
I don't understand the idea that Bitcoin has some special attribute because the supply is limited. As others have mentioned, wouldn't a rival digital currency effectively create another source of supply?

Why not create a currency based on the works of Picasso, there won't be anymore of those either?

-ERD50
 
You are correct that inflation is a feature of the current economic system.

What we have in play here is a system that requires ever increasing levels of debt and money printing that is in opposition to the deflationary force caused by an exponential rate of advance in technology.

We have long passed the sustainable debt to GDP ratio and allowing deflation to have the upper hand would cause the collateral backing the many different debt bubbles to drop. The result would probably make the great depression seem like a walk in the park.

Given this situation it is likely that the currency devaluation will continue and it will have to increase at an exponential rate if it is going to continue to offset the technological advance driven deflation as it has been doing.

I find that very scary.

Well, keep in mind that the worst investment decisions are made while in the grip of fear or greed.
 
I don't understand the idea that Bitcoin has some special attribute because the supply is limited. As others have mentioned, wouldn't a rival digital currency effectively create another source of supply?

Why not create a currency based on the works of Picasso, there won't be anymore of those either?

-ERD50

I read a pretty convincing argument recently that crude oil is our current de facto currency base.
 
Why not create a currency based on the works of Picasso, there won't be anymore of those either?
-ERD50

That sounds almost like NFTs, but I don't want to see a thread on that silliness.
 
:)

I clearly haven't read every post in this thread carefully! But it does sort of match my other point, that someone could/will fill the supply with some other digital currency, or some other deceased artist.

-ERD50
Great minds think alike.
 
:)

I clearly haven't read every post in this thread carefully! But it does sort of match my other point, that someone could/will fill the supply with some other digital currency, or some other deceased artist.

-ERD50

Well, according to this source (veracity unknown) there have been over 13000 synthetic tokens (aka crypto currencies) introduced so far.
Well, according to data from CoinMarketCap, there are currently more than 13,506 in existence. New tokens are popping up all the time – each with a different use case and backstory.
According to this source, more than 2000 have already failed. No idea how much money has been lost, but it must be considerable.
By May 24, 2021, at least 2,047 cryptocurrencies have failed, according to Coinopsy which tracks such failures.
 
You guys are missing the boat. You should mint some FIRE NFT's and sell them to all the young guys to use as avatars. How much for that MichaelB picture?
 
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