EV to ICE or Hybrid

[ERD50]

... About 10 years ago, Elon illustrated this point by saying that 10,000 km² area of PV represented by a small blue square would generate enough energy to cover the then-current electric needs of the USA.

He was covering just electricity generation, so adding in transportation, you would probably double the area. .....

But in real life, that graphic is about as useful as saying "there is plenty of water in the Oceans to support all our drinking, industrial and agriculture needs", without recognizing the need and cost of desalination plants, the power required for those plants, the distribution to places far from shore, and what to do with the waste (which is even more concentrated salt water that can be harmful to ocean life).

So that square is in a place with high solar concentration - now distribute that across the continent, now add in what you need for overnight and low solar days of storage, etc. Then fight the environmentalists who will point out every species of animal and insect that might be impacted by the installation of solar panels. And they will fight every added power line installation, etc.

Here's some fun math for you - it takes ~ 2 years for a solar panel to offset the amount of energy required to produce it. And I have yet to see a solar panel manufacturer that is solar powered (silicon processing requires 24/7 power). So where do we get the electrical power to produce that many panels, before there are enough to start offsetting the requirements to produce them? And after 20-30 years, there is an ongoing replacement issue of ~ 3% of that per year.

So I guess you might defend Elon as not "lying" with that, but IMO, that's semantics - it's so far from being a useful measure, and most of his audience doesn't analyze things that far, it's in the same ballpark as a lie, and not worth a distinction, IMO.

But this is pretty far afield from the OP, and has more to do with future adoption than:

I'm curious if anyone here has bought an EV and then gone back to an ICE or a even a hybrid vehicle? Anyone? And why?

So we can try to get back on track, but it's hard not to respond to such 'hand-waving' of the realities.

-ERD50

 

[ERD50]

You may be right about the eventual timeframe, but if there was a desire or a need, it could be done tomorrow. Parking lots have lights, which means there is already power. Putting in outlets or EVSEs is a straightforward task. Depending on the lot, most of the expense would be trenching and repaving small sections of the lot. Or it could be mostly above ground if the parking spaces are all at the perimeter of the lot.

They have enough power for the lights, which is extremely predictable and defined by the number of bulbs and their wattage. They didn't over engineer this to any significant degree, so no, putting in outlets is not a straightforward task, because each outlet will need additional power from a panel, additional wiring, etc. Probably more transformers at the site, etc.

It can be done, but it isn't all that simple a matter as adding an outlet.

-ERD50

 

[ken830]

ERD50, let's not get into this again because you didn't read carefully or thoroughly enough. I did say, "the mental image of concentrating it in one location helps to bring it into perspective and serves as a useful graphic representation." It was not meant to be taken literally that we dedicate a single, huge swath of land for solar.

 

[Chuckanut]

We have owned thee Tesla's; M3, MX, and MY. When I get in a rental or loaner car that is an ICE, I feel like being asked to give up my smart phone for a old Nokia phone. I hate driving the ICE. Way to many knobs and controls, the noise, the smell, filling up at gas stations, the amount of attention it takes to drive, and if it's a manual - the shifting. It just feels primitive.

You lost me at manual shifting. I thought that was a theft prevention feature.

 

[ken830]

They have enough power for the lights, which is extremely predictable and defined by the number of bulbs and their wattage. They didn't over engineer this to any significant degree, so no, putting in outlets is not a straightforward task, because each outlet will need additional power from a panel, additional wiring, etc. Probably more transformers at the site, etc.

It can be done, but it isn't all that simple a matter as adding an outlet.

-ERD50

I'm not implying that they would use the power from the lights. I'm saying there are likely lights, which means access to power infrastructure exists at the lot. New conduits and circuits will need to be put in, which is why I mentioned trenching. Didn't think I needed to be any more explicit.

 

[aja8888]

They have enough power for the lights, which is extremely predictable and defined by the number of bulbs and their wattage. They didn't over engineer this to any significant degree, so no, putting in outlets is not a straightforward task, because each outlet will need additional power from a panel, additional wiring, etc. Probably more transformers at the site, etc.

It can be done, but it isn't all that simple a matter as adding an outlet.

-ERD50

ERD50, you are wasting your time with these facts. Remember, many Tesla fanboys are not practical engineers or have much concept of what it takes to get stuff done.

 

[ERD50]

I'm not implying that they would use the power from the lights. I'm saying there are likely lights, which means access to power infrastructure exists at the lot. New conduits and circuits will need to be put in, which is why I mentioned trenching. Didn't think I needed to be any more explicit.

Well, conduits are sized for the wiring/amps (heating taken into account, as well as physical size for the wires). Again, cost is king, they don't significantly oversize this with such a well defined load. All of which takes it away from being a "straightforward task." Unless you are using "Elon-speak".

And if you need to trench for larger conduit, that implies a much larger draw, so we are back to the transformers/panels feeding that lot, and maybe feed to the area. And if they are trenching, it doesn't seem to make much difference that they "already have lights" - you aren't using any of that - that power is 'spoken for'! Not "straightforward" by most anyone's standards.

But yes, this is enough. Moving on, but stop tempting me with these sorts of outrageous statements!

-ERD50

 

[ken830]

Well, conduits are sized for the wiring/amps (heating taken into account, as well as physical size for the wires). Again, cost is king, they don't significantly oversize this with such a well defined load. All of which takes it away from being a "straightforward task." Unless you are using "Elon-speak".

And if you need to trench for larger conduit, that implies a much larger draw, so we are back to the transformers/panels feeding that lot, and maybe feed to the area. And if they are trenching, it doesn't seem to make much difference that they "already have lights" - you aren't using any of that - that power is 'spoken for'! Not "straightforward" by most anyone's standards.

But yes, this is enough. Moving on, but stop tempting me with these sorts of outrageous statements!

-ERD50

I'm just saying access to electrical infrastructure is already on premises and it doesn't need to take 10 years to put in a row of EVSEs at an apartment parking lot. Not sure why you are making it so controversial.

ERD50, you are wasting your time with these facts. Remember, many Tesla fanboys are not practical engineers or have much concept of what it takes to get stuff done.

What does that has to do with anything? Not sure why you bring that up... Is that an attempt at a personal insult? I don't think I'm a "fanboy", but I am a fan of their products. And I happen to be an actual engineer -- at least I have been employed as one for the last ~24 years, but I am not exempt from the occasional bouts of imposter syndrome. I am an electronics engineer and have been designing PCB and system-level electronics, some for large enough companies that you likely all use something that I have contributed to... Most fans of Tesla that I know are from the same background -- mostly engineers... because 10 years ago, we were all fascinated with the hardware and software systems in Tesla vehicles. No one else was doing anything quite like them. None of the non-engineers in my personal life care very much about Tesla.

 

[NW-Bound]

Just the fact that there are wires do not mean they can support the new additional load. You also need distribution transformers, and substations, and high-voltage lines.

I was researching home solar battery installation on YouTube, and happened to run across a video about a home solar installation in the UK. And then, in reading the comments, learned that the people there, when grid-tied, are limited to pumping no more than 3.6 kW into the grid. Anymore, and the power lines could not support it.

So, they are putting in batteries to store the excess power. And here in the US, some solar homeowners believe that net metering is a birthright.

 

[braumeister]

Just the fact that there are wires do not mean they can support the new additional load. You also need distribution transformers, and substations, and high-voltage lines.

A little trivia: I have a friend who designs substations for a living, and he says there is basically no such thing as a standard one. They all have to be custom designed. He's well paid, so it is hardly a trivial task.

 

[ken830]

Obviously, I'm not suggesting we plug all the cars into the lamp post. It's not going to take 10 years. If the will is there, they can get started tomorrow. You're not going to need a substation for a row of EVSEs in an apartment parking lot.

 

[NW-Bound]

Indeed, some "lamp post" charging is possible. Some European cities are starting to do this.

I doubt that you can go beyond Level 1 charging, but hey, beggars cannot be choosy.

PS. I see no meter. Is this all free (very nice!), or there is a smart way to keep track for billing?

 

[NW-Bound]

And then, in the Netherlands last year, a Tesla owner decided to do "lamp post charging" DIY style. It was spotted by the police. It was not revealed how much the fine was.

PS. At that time, electricity in the Netherlands was expensive, creating an additional incentive for the theft.

As newspaper AD noted, operating an electric car was extremely cheap last year, but is now often more expensive to run than vehicles consuming petrol or diesel. The newspaper detailed that an electric car which uses 15 kWh of electricity per 100 kilometers costs 12.60 euros to cover that distance.

By comparison, the BMW 530i uses 5.5 liters of petrol for the same range, according to a press release from the manufacturer. Petrol and diesel currently sells for 1.88 at Dutch highway filling stations, according to United Consumers, putting the BMW's cost per 100 kilometers at 10.34 euros.

 

[NW-Bound]

I found out some info on the Ubitricity Lamp Post Charging Point posted above.

It is run by Shell. Yes, there's a charge, and you pay via a smartphone. I guess the electronics is now so small, it can be hidden inside the post. Therefore, no keypad, no credit card terminal that are visible.

Power output can be as high as 5 kW, providing perhaps 15 miles/hour of charging. Cost is not revealed (dependent on locations).

 

[Koolau]

Indeed, some "lamp post" charging is possible. Some European cities are starting to do this.

I doubt that you can go beyond Level 1 charging, but hey, beggars cannot be choosy.

PS. I see no meter. Is this all free (very nice!), or there is a smart way to keep track for billing?

Hmmm. Each of those cords would be worth one or maybe two hits of meth where I live. I give them about 2 minutes of charging time before they are stolen. I guess the good news is that (until people wise up) you ought to be able to pick up a "used" cord for $10.

 

[NW-Bound]

Hmmm. Each of those cords would be worth one or maybe two hits of meth where I live. I give them about 2 minutes of charging time before they are stolen. I guess the good news is that (until people wise up) you ought to be able to pick up a "used" cord for $10.

Yes.

In Barcelona, we stayed in a hotel right on the famed La Rambla pedestrian street. One morning, we took a walk early, and saw waiters putting out tables and chairs to prepare for the day. Several restaurants were preparing to open like this.

And I saw that they were also screwing in bulbs into the sockets of wires strung on trees!

Obviously, thieves would not steal the wires, but would take the bulbs overnight. Son of a gun!

PS. Thinking back, perhaps they re-strung the wires before screwing in the bulbs. I did not see them stringing the wires, and came to the wrong conclusion. Perhaps they put the bulbs in after stringing the wires, in order to avoid breakage.

 

[Koolau]

But in reality, in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't take very much land area at all for PV to cover most of our energy needs. We need to have some storage capability, and the reality is that the PV will be geographically distributed instead of concentrated in one location, but the mental image of concentrating it in one location helps to bring it into perspective and serves as a useful graphic representation.

About 10 years ago, Elon illustrated this point by saying that 10,000 km² area of PV represented by a small blue square would generate enough energy to cover the then-current electric needs of the USA.

View attachment 46776

He was covering just electricity generation, so adding in transportation, you would probably double the area. You can do your own back-of-the-napkin calculation using the latest energy flowchart from LLNL:

View attachment 46777

Not sure where you got the Musk estimate. This one (assuming 20% efficiency) suggests 10K sq mi (not sq KM.) In any case, it all assumes we've managed to solve the issue of storage which we haven't (and won't any time soon.) YMMV


https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/how-much-land-power-us-solar/

 

[Koolau]

^^^^^^^


A much more complete estimate of how we might find our way out of the FF "dilemma" (and what it might cost/how much land it might take) is represented in this TED talk.

Yeah, I know. It's about the UK for the most part. Sue me.

 

[steady saver]

To try to answer the OP's question, I'm not sure I would "go back" as in selling my EV and using only an ICE but I'm now considering getting a new hybrid or plug in hybrid for long distance travel...I think there's a place for both for me. My son insists that the charging infrastructure is way better than when he bought his Tesla 2 years ago, and he's correct. But there are places I have to drive to see family that have practically no charging options. And yes, we can plug in at the house, but we do a LOT of driving DH's mom around when we're there and it is a trickle charger. She does not own a car any longer.

On the plus side, having to wait a bit to charge at a Supercharger gives us time to walk, do some easy PT exercises, get a drink, etc. And I don't have to smell the gas fumes at the pump. But those chargers are often an afterthought as to where they put them!

 

[aja8888]

And I don't have to smell the gas fumes at the pump. But those chargers are often an afterthought as to where they put them!

If you are smelling gas fumes at the pump, something is wrong with the station's dedicated vapor recovery system on each gas pump. These are there by law at all gas stations.

 

[Car-Guy]

^^^^^
I was thinking the same thing. I rarely smell gas fumes at gas stations these days.


Makes me wonder if there is an Ozone or other smell(s) when charging EV's.

 

[aja8888]

I was thinking the same thing. I rarely smell gas fumes at gas stations these days.

Vapor recovery has been on gas pumps for decades. Some stations in remote areas didn't have it as the Clean Air Act exempted them. I'm not sure if that's the case anymore though.

 

[Koolau]

If you are smelling gas fumes at the pump, something is wrong with the station's dedicated vapor recovery system on each gas pump. These are there by law at all gas stations.

For years, I've seen controls in some states. If our local stations here in the heartland have the controls, I don't recognize them.

 

[NW-Bound]

In my earlier post about "lamp post" EV chargers, I mentioned that Shell was behind this Ubitricity business. Yes, Shell, an oil company.

Back in 2000 or perhaps earlier, I looked into solar PV panels, which back then were going for higher than $5/W. I saw solar panels sold under the brands of Shell, BP, and some other oil names that I don't recall right now.

They eventually divested of their PV business. I never knew why, nor have read anything about this.

 

[Chuckanut]

I’ve driving a lot of back roads in various Western states over the past few years. I can assure you that there are still many stations that don’t have vapor recovery systems. Interestingly, there are also stations that will sell you gasoline with no ethanol in it. It’s more expensive, but they claim better mileage.

Fast charging stations? Sometimes yes. Sometimes no. One town had one rather beat up charging statin located in a state park parking lot. That was it. Another town had a budget chain hotel that included two Tesla superchargers out back by the laundry/maintenance area. Given the utter lack of traveler services in the surrounding area, my guess is Tesla made them an offer they would be fools to refuse.