Electric Vehicles - Models Discussion

[Chuckanut]

No one is saying everyone should have any particular vehicle.

Today, the above is mostly true. But, there are future mandates that will force people to buy EVs.

My state is mandating no new ICE vehicles can be sold by 2030. Other state's are mandating 2035.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wa...te-100-electric-new-car-sales-by-2030/620303/

Washington lawmakers last week passed legislation adopting a target for the state to end the sales of new gasoline-powered cars by 2030, a deadline that is five years ahead of neighboring California, making it the most ambitious goal in the country.

 

[Midpack]

Today, the above is mostly true. But, there are future mandates that will force people to buy EVs.

My state is mandating no new ICE vehicles can be sold by 2030. Other state's are mandating 2035.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wa...te-100-electric-new-car-sales-by-2030/620303/

By no means am I discounting what you're saying but we'll see how that plays out. I find it hard to believe anyone will buy an EV they really don't want. They will hold on to their ICE, buy a newer used ICE, go to another state to buy a new ICE - and special interests and voters will be all over legislators then. And the infrastructure, including the grid to support further adoption has to be addressed, so far that seems to be mostly talk.

 

[Fermion]

Today, the above is mostly true. But, there are future mandates that will force people to buy EVs.

My state is mandating no new ICE vehicles can be sold by 2030. Other state's are mandating 2035.

https://www.utilitydive.com/news/wa...te-100-electric-new-car-sales-by-2030/620303/

Meanwhile, our town in eastern Washington state with a population over 6000 has a whopping 5 public EV chargers.

Remember, this is the state where the governor brought a gift of apples which had maggots to eastern Washington (which has many signs about the apple maggot quarantine). Not a lot of thought goes into these decisions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/... personal,relentlessly to keep from spreading.

 

[aja8888]

Meanwhile, our town in eastern Washington state with a population over 6000 has a whopping 5 public EV chargers.

Remember, this is the state where the governor brought a gift of apples which had maggots to eastern Washington (which has many signs about the apple maggot quarantine). Not a lot of thought goes into these decisions.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/17/... personal,relentlessly to keep from spreading.

Our township of 120,000+ has about 10 chargers at the Mall (some free, some cost, some usually are not working), otherwise, there are maybe 20 elsewhere (roughly 15 mile radius) and I estimate 10 of them are Tesla Superchargers.

If it wasn't for home charging, having an EV around here would be a bad choice.

 

[Midpack]

If it wasn't for home charging, having an EV around here would be a bad choice.

+1. The current infrastructure (and grid) is good for home charging and long road trips on an exception basis. I wouldn't own an EV yet, if I had to rely on public chargers entirely/mostly, not even (superior) Tesla chargers. Chicken and the egg?

 

[Fermion]

Our township of 120,000+ has about 10 chargers at the Mall (some free, some cost, some usually are not working), otherwise, there are maybe 20 elsewhere (roughly 15 mile radius) and I estimate 10 of them are Tesla Superchargers.

If it wasn't for home charging, having an EV around here would be a bad choice.

It is why I don't see how these mandates can possibly be met. If you have 1 public charger per 500 or so cars, even if 90% of people charge at home, there will still be a huge demand when it takes at least 30 minutes at a time to charge on these. We also have five large apartment buildings in town and I have not seen any outside charging ports there in the lots.

Maybe they can build all this infrastructure in 6 years?

 

[REWahoo]

Maybe they can build all this infrastructure in 6 years?

Yes, but I think it will be difficult and uneven. I suspect these deadlines/mandates will be pushed back in some states.

 

[aja8888]

It is why I don't see how these mandates can possibly be met. If you have 1 public charger per 500 or so cars, even if 90% of people charge at home, there will still be a huge demand when it takes at least 30 minutes at a time to charge on these. We also have five large apartment buildings in town and I have not seen any outside charging ports there in the lots.

Maybe they can build all this infrastructure in 6 years?

There are over 2,500 (or more now) apartment complexes in the greater Houston area. None around here have any charge facilities that I know of or have heard about.

Remember, these "mandates" are created by politicians who have different motives for carrying the flag of progress to the media!

Where I live, we have hundreds (thousands?) of small businesses that do lawns, cut trees, dig trenches, remodel homes, build homes, etc that have TRUCKS hauling BIG trailers full of HEAVY equipment. Does anyone really think an EV is going to fit in here and handle this work?

 

[Midpack]

There are over 2,500 (or more now) apartment complexes in the greater Houston area. None around here have any charge facilities that I know of or have heard about.

Remember, these "mandates" are created by politicians who have different motives for carrying the flag of progress to the media!

Where I live, we have hundreds (thousands?) of small businesses that do lawns, cut trees, dig trenches, remodel homes, build homes, etc that have TRUCKS hauling BIG trailers full of HEAVY equipment. Does anyone really think an EV is going to fit in here and handle this work?

This says about 10% of Houston apartments have EV charging, 5,627 of 55,522 units? That said, I am sure some apartment managers (greatly) exaggerate their EV charging facilities. Some are probably decent, while others are probably not maintained or just a 220V plug somewhere.

https://www.apartments.com/houston-tx/ev-charging/

OTOH this one shows about 3.5% have EV charging. https://www.apartmenthomeliving.com/houston-tx/apartments-for-rent/ev_charging

 

[audreyh1]

It is why I don't see how these mandates can possibly be met.

I pretty much laugh at these mandates because it’s spouting off talk - easy to say, not so easy to do. There are programs happening to improve the infrastructure but it won’t be nearly enough to meet the goals. Legislators will get in real hot water if they don’t back off when the deadlines loom.

 

[MichaelB]

Yes, but I think it will be difficult and uneven. I suspect these deadlines/mandates will be pushed back in some states.

I agree. For large scale public charging they also need to greatly reduce the total time to charge.

 

[aja8888]

This says about 10% of Houston apartments have EV charging, 5,627 of 55,522 units? That said, I am sure some apartment managers (greatly) exaggerate their EV charging facilities. Some are probably decent, while others are probably not maintained or just a 220V plug somewhere.

https://www.apartments.com/houston-tx/ev-charging/

OTOH this one shows about 3.5% have EV charging. https://www.apartmenthomeliving.com/houston-tx/apartments-for-rent/ev_charging

My wife was a District Manager for a big Houston RE company for 25 years (100's of complexes) until she retired 6 or 7 years ago. Back then, big complex owners (mostly PE firms, big banks, etc) were not enamored in the thoughts of installing chargers operated by others on their properties. She used to prepare capital and expense budget for many locations and frequently saw backlash on planned improvements. I'm sure it's gotten better, but the three or four complexes in my immediate neighborhood, have no chargers (yet).

What I have found with "public" chargers (not Tesla) is that they are poorly maintained once placed in service. One at the Mall I have used after I first got my EV, is now down, and it has been down for the last couple of months.

My feeling is that it will be a decade before EV charging has matured as a reliable undertaking and people will be comfortable with it.

 

[Midpack]

My feeling is that it will be a decade before EV charging has matured as a reliable undertaking and people will be comfortable with it.

I wouldn’t be surprised. Unfamiliarity is a part of it, but availability, reliability and charge speeds have a LONG way to go. Tesla is (way) ahead, but not faultless.

 

[Montecfo]

It is why I don't see how these mandates can possibly be met. If you have 1 public charger per 500 or so cars, even if 90% of people charge at home, there will still be a huge demand when it takes at least 30 minutes at a time to charge on these. We also have five large apartment buildings in town and I have not seen any outside charging ports there in the lots.

Maybe they can build all this infrastructure in 6 years?

Not to mention people will simply revolt. Overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars. They figure to remain a niche product at least for now. The figures on EV reliability are also not helping.

 

[MichaelB]

Not to mention people will simply revolt. Overwhelmingly, people do not want these cars. They figure to remain a niche product at least for now. The figures on EV reliability are also not helping.

Gallup poll from 4/23. I’d say people are open to EV. https://news.gallup.com/poll/474095/americans-not-completely-sold-electric-vehicles.aspx

 

[Rustic23]

43% would consider one in the future, well in the future I would consider a flying car.
Also this from the article
'Previous Gallup polling has found that Americans aren’t always the best judge of their future behavior when it comes to technology. For example, as recently as 2000, a quarter of Americans thought they’d never own a smartphone.'

the Iphone came out in 2007! little wonder folks in 2000 would not consider one.

I would put me in the 'would consider one in the future, however, I don't really see us owning one. Much more likely to own a hybrid.

 

[Chuckanut]

I agree. For large scale public charging they also need to greatly reduce the total time to charge.

The bank of 12 Tesla chargers recently installed at a shopping center near me rarely have less than 3 open stalls during the day. And I have seen lines forming at times when all 12 are stalls are in use.



There are four other non-Tesla charging stalls in the same lot. They get a lot less you these days. But, they are the old style, have a four course meal while you wait type of charger.



I read that Telsa will limit the amount of chargers that other makes can use. IIRC, of the 22,000 Tesla chargers, about 12,000 will be open for other makes.

 

[Popeye]

I just hope these public chargers don’t end up like those air machines at gas stations. You know, with the hoses always broken, or compressor out of order, or it eats your quarters and doesn’t work.

I wonder how long it takes a public charger to pay back the initial expense?

 

[DayDreaming]

It is why I don't see how these mandates can possibly be met. If you have 1 public charger per 500 or so cars, even if 90% of people charge at home, there will still be a huge demand when it takes at least 30 minutes at a time to charge on these. We also have five large apartment buildings in town and I have not seen any outside charging ports there in the lots.

Maybe they can build all this infrastructure in 6 years?

From this article,

"China is way ahead of the U.S. in EV adoption and provides a glimpse into what our future may hold. There are already some 20 million all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles swarming the country’s roads, according to BNEF. Last year, China put 890,000 public charging connectors in the ground, the group estimates. That’s over five times the amount of plugs the U.S. has installed, period."


I'm not in favor of most EV mandates, but I'm sure that infrastructure can keep up with demand. Maybe some government incentive is needed to build infrastructure ahead of demand.

 

[freedomatlast]

And to those who claim their ICE vehicles are unaffected, that’s not true either. They don’t lose nearly as much range as EVs, but they certainly aren’t unaffected. I remember hundreds of ICE owners who couldn’t start their cars on extremely cold days in Chicagoland.

At least the cabin heat is free (doesn't use additional battery power or fuel) in an ICE vehicle and cold start issues are pretty much a thing of the past with modern ignition and fuel injection systems.

 

[ls99]

Seems the fundamental problem, in very cold temperatures of EV with depleted or nearly so batteries is that there is no way to get a quick charge, say equivalent to 5 gal gas can which AAA or some good samaritan could provide, to get them to where a sufficient or full charge can be done to carry on.

Operator error in battery management causing the problems was previously ,in good detail was discussed in previous posts.

Thus they are clogging the charging stations. Requiring a tow to get to where functioning chargers are available. Or many hours of wait time. AAA or some other provider of recovery services can't show up with huge mobile battery to get them going. Maybe in time such service will be available for a small fee.

 

[Midpack]

Seems the fundamental problem, in very cold temperatures of EV with depleted or nearly so batteries is that there is no way to get a quick charge, say equivalent to 5 gal gas can which AAA or some good samaritan could provide, to get them to where a sufficient or full charge can be done to carry on.

Operator error in battery management causing the problems was previously ,in good detail was discussed in previous posts.

Thus they are clogging the charging stations. Requiring a tow to get to where functioning chargers are available. Or many hours of wait time. AAA or some other provider of recovery services can't show up with huge mobile battery to get them going. Maybe in time such service will be available for a small fee.

While the situation is obviously a black eye on EV charging during winter, so far I’ve read about one Supercharger station in Chicago. If it’s a wholesale failure due to extreme winter cold, why only one station in one city reported? Turns out there are 13 Superchargers in the Chicago metro area, and 3 of them were down for some period. It also appears 50 stalls (cumulatively?) were down across the Chicago network, of 156 (admittedly guessing assuming 12 per station)? Not good certainly, and I am sure there have been some stalls down all over, but I wonder how many winter failures there are across the entire network, just to add some perspective? There are somewhere between 17,000 and 22,000 Tesla Supercharger stalls in the US…

 

[ERD50]

Gallup poll from 4/23. I’d say people are open to EV. https://news.gallup.com/poll/474095/americans-not-completely-sold-electric-vehicles.aspx

But I think that makes the point about mandating EVs. Sure, some of the public is open to them, already own or plan to own one, but that's only 16%. Who knows how many of the "might consider" would decide "no" when the mandates roll around? It very well "might" depend on where they are living at some future, unknown time and place (have a garage and charge capability at home). And a full 41% say "no".

That's a lot of people who say "no" and are not going to be happy if a mandate comes to be. EVs are fine if they fit your needs, buy one. But this mandate stuff is nonsense, IMO.

-ERD50

 

[folivier]

I totally agree. Currently an EV won't work for me unless I have 2 cars which I don't want or really need. But someday when we sell the cabin and are living full-time in our condo then an EV could make sense. I have an attached garage so adding a charger would be fairly easy. At that time our trips would be mostly local so the range would work. And once self driving is perfected especially in city traffic then it would be nice to say "take me to the doctor's office, or to our grandkids soccer game."
But that is (hopefully) 10 years or so in the future.
But then again us as retirees are not the demographic they're targeting.

 

[Midpack]

But I think that makes the point about mandating EVs. Sure, some of the public is open to them, already own or plan to own one, but that's only 16%. Who knows how many of the "might consider" would decide "no" when the mandates roll around? It very well "might" depend on where they are living at some future, unknown time and place (have a garage and charge capability at home). And a full 41% say "no".

That's a lot of people who say "no" and are not going to be happy if a mandate comes to be. EVs are fine if they fit your needs, buy one. But this mandate stuff is nonsense, IMO.

-ERD50

Talk is cheap, and there are plenty of ways around these supposed mandates, they’re really aspirational by some legislators. No one has been forced yet and I seriously doubt anyone will be forced to buy an EV they don’t want for a very long time despite a few “mandates” that are on paper.

By no means am I discounting what you're saying but we'll see how that plays out. I find it hard to believe anyone will buy an EV they really don't want. They will hold on to their ICE, buy a newer used ICE, go to another state to buy a new ICE - and special interests and voters will be all over legislators then. And the infrastructure, including the grid to support further adoption has to be addressed, so far that seems to be mostly talk.

Yes, but I think it will be difficult and uneven. I suspect these deadlines/mandates will be pushed back in some states.

I pretty much laugh at these mandates because it’s spouting off talk - easy to say, not so easy to do. There are programs happening to improve the infrastructure but it won’t be nearly enough to meet the goals. Legislators will get in real hot water if they don’t back off when the deadlines loom.