FinanceGeek
Recycles dryer sheets
- Joined
- Jun 30, 2007
- Messages
- 374
For a few years now, this forum has speculated about the number of people who will ER as soon as they can purchase health insurance policies not tied to employment. Now, the MSM is catching on to ACA as another thing that reduces the phenomenon of "job lock" with respect to health insurance.
A New Reason Not To Work | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance
http://www.columbia.edu/~tg2370/garthwaite-gross-notowidigdo.pdf
The paper they base this on has little to do with ER as we discuss it on this forum, its mostly about the effect of "new" availability of HI due to ACA mandated Medicaid expansion. They conclude that the aggregate employment rate (which I think means something like labor force participation rate?) may fall between 0.3 and 0.6 percent. Which the paper states is in line with the 0.5% numbers estimated by CBO. But by focusing only on the segment of the population who will now be Medicaid eligible, I suspect both this paper (and CBO) greatly understate the likely decline in the labor force participation induced by ACA.
What these numbers don't capture are the (IMHO much larger) group of people who will take less demanding jobs, return to college, start new ventures, etc. once they are no longer compelled to work in traditional corporate organizations to get access to group health insurance despite pre-existing conditions.
With respect to the title, I recall elimination of "job lock" was widely bandied about as a reason to enact the COBRA law in the 1980s. And indeed, the world of even less HI portability pre-COBRA was far less worker friendly than what we have today.
A New Reason Not To Work | Daily Ticker - Yahoo! Finance
http://www.columbia.edu/~tg2370/garthwaite-gross-notowidigdo.pdf
The paper they base this on has little to do with ER as we discuss it on this forum, its mostly about the effect of "new" availability of HI due to ACA mandated Medicaid expansion. They conclude that the aggregate employment rate (which I think means something like labor force participation rate?) may fall between 0.3 and 0.6 percent. Which the paper states is in line with the 0.5% numbers estimated by CBO. But by focusing only on the segment of the population who will now be Medicaid eligible, I suspect both this paper (and CBO) greatly understate the likely decline in the labor force participation induced by ACA.
What these numbers don't capture are the (IMHO much larger) group of people who will take less demanding jobs, return to college, start new ventures, etc. once they are no longer compelled to work in traditional corporate organizations to get access to group health insurance despite pre-existing conditions.
With respect to the title, I recall elimination of "job lock" was widely bandied about as a reason to enact the COBRA law in the 1980s. And indeed, the world of even less HI portability pre-COBRA was far less worker friendly than what we have today.
Last edited: