Future nursing home increase data

[Tadpole]

Does anyone compute and share the data on the expectation of increases in nursing home costs? I know insurance companies must do some kind of projection but I doubt they show the data that goes into it.

 

[MichaelB]

There are two kinds of nursing home, rehab centers and long term care facilities. According to this source, long term care facilities, along with assisted living, have been increasing monthly prices between 3.5% to 5%. http://www.lifehealthpro.com/2013/07/30/nursing-home-cost-rises

The price of a room has increased an average of 4.8 percent per year since John Hancock last commissioned an LTC price survey in 2011.Over the past five years, price increases for private rooms have averaged 3.6 percent per year.The average cost of a semi-private nursing home room has increased an average of 4.7 percent per year over the past two years, to $82,855 per year.The five-year average annual increase has been 3.6 percent per year.

The ALF my aunt called home increased 5% per year, and my mom's ALF just did the same.

 

[Tadpole]

Thanks, MichaelB! That's actually lower than I expected. But going forward I thought scarcity of rooms might lead to the bidding up of available slots (as well as the increase in Medicaid placements). Admittedly it might be difficult to guess/predict these effects.

 

[braumeister]

Due to increasing demand, I would expect availability to increase in the future. But I'm the last person whose predictions you want to listen to.

 

[Tadpole]

Yes, I didn't consider expansion in the factors that might affect the cost. Many, many unknowns.

 

[Senator]

I let Fidelity do the LTC projections, although I am not the least bit concerned. I suspect that it will be all part of Medicare at some point. Worse case, I am on medicaid. I am self-insuring.

 

[Tadpole]

Senator, We are self-insuring also. I woke up bored and thought I would try to do better projections since my husband's mom is almost 100 years old and our investments may be too conservative. I have been mentally allocating $250,000 to future LTC costs but from 70 to 100 is thirty years. That's enough time to really erode that $250K if it doesn't keep pace with LTC inflation. And who knows what Medicare/Medicaid will be 20-30 years from now.

 

[Senator]

Senator, We are self-insuring also. I woke up bored and thought I would try to do better projections since my husband's mom is almost 100 years old and our investments may be too conservative. I have been mentally allocating $250,000 to future LTC costs but from 70 to 100 is thirty years. That's enough time to really erode that $250K if it doesn't keep pace with LTC inflation. And who knows what Medicare/Medicaid will be 20-30 years from now.

Odds are, if you go in, it will not be for very long. Three years tops. The first days are covered by Medicare. The last days are covered as Hospice care.

If you continue to improve, it's covered by heathcare. If not, and it's a one-way trip, assets and medicaid.

If I go in for the duration, I am spending all my cash on strippers and beer, right in the home.

 

[Tadpole]

I hear you. I think my husband might agree. Oh well, as I said, if I could get more insightful data than I myself can guess, it's something to do on a rainy day. The WA coast has lots of those.