Herd Immunity in the US out of Reach

[RAE]

Well I guess we don't need to ask you what you do all day... you started posting saying it's a personal choice to get vaccinated, but I'm getting a big whiff of something else going on here. I'm unabashedly pro-vaccine and will tell anyone that right from the get go.

"Big whiff of something else going on here"? Not sure what you mean by that, Ivansfan, but it seems to me that kjpliny has done quite a bit of research on all of this (way more than most people), and has made his decision based on the information he has obtained. I respect that, and I respect his choice as well. Like kjpliny, I am neither pro-vaccine nor anti-vaccine, but base my choices on the best available information, along with an assessment of the risk involved. Others (like you) have made a different choice, and that's fine.

 

[ivinsfan]

"Big whiff of something else going on here"? Not sure what you mean by that, Ivansfan, but it seems to me that kjpliny has done quite a bit of research on all of this (way more than most people), and has made his decision based on the information he has obtained. I respect that, and I respect his choice as well. Like kjpliny, I am neither pro-vaccine nor anti-vaccine, but base my choices on the best available information, along with an assessment of the risk involved. Others (like you) have made a different choice, and that's fine.

To be fair you have had Covid and come out fine, so if you hadn't Covid do you think you'd feel differently? There's a lot of information out there on both sides pro and con and YMMY.

 

[RAE]

To be fair you have had Covid and come out fine, so if you hadn't Covid do you think you'd feel differently? There's a lot of information out there on both sides pro and con and YMMY.

If I had not already had COVID, I am not sure what my decision would be regarding the vaccine. I have none of the risk factors for serious complications from COVID, so that would argue in favor of not getting the vaccine (and as it turns out, I was able to recover from COVID within a week with no long-term issues, so that is one indication that my immune system was pretty strong). On the other hand, I do understand that if I chose to not get vaccinated (and had also not had COVID), that I could pose a risk to others that I may interact with (although the evidence for asymptomatic transmission of COVID is really pretty limited). It would probably come down to my need/desire to interact frequently with others, especially in indoor settings. As I said earlier, I really do not interact with many people outside of my immediate family, and I'm careful to use a mask and keep my distance from others whenever I do go out. I'd have to weigh all of these factors before coming to a decision.

 

[Fermion]

When you do look at deaths from people who have had the vaccine, you have to realize that the number of vaccinated people is very large (hundreds of millions) so it is going to be hard to assign the blame for a death directly to the vaccine and not to just random bad luck for a few people in a large group. I think (but don't have time to find right now) that the placebo group in one vaccine study actually had more serious adverse effects than the actual people who got the vaccine. You take 100 million people and a few are going to die each day just from random health events.

 

[MuirWannabe]

There just isn’t an aspect of Covid (or maybe anything these days) that isn’t wrought with disagreement and infighting. Suppose we shouldn’t be surprised the vaccine aspect yields the same us/them as the testing, social distancing, masking, and the reopening aspects have.

I’m thankful for the vaccine. Was an early initiate back in January when I was fortunate to get it. Still, it seems weird to me that we would be driven to be upset by those who choose not to get it. Yes, I suppose it possible the disease could mutate into a new form that renders the current vaccines less effective. But anything is possible. A new Covid coming out of a bat market in Timbuktu is possible. After all, it happened this time. And even if all Americans were held down and injected, the entire world is in play. It could still mutate back in Timbuktu. Or maybe, just maybe, we will be okay.

We can’t control everything. Life offers no guarantees. We each do the best we can. To pretend otherwise is to play God.

 

[JohnML]

I can see that some people don't want to get vaccinated yet (I know at least one person here is waiting for Novavax.) I live in Canada and our numbers are getting very, very bad with ICUs filling up (they're transferring patients to another city due to lack of ICU beds.). I can try to protect myself by not going out, but I shudder to think what may be the outcome if I should have to visit ER with something unforeseen. I have gotten my first Pfizer shot as soon as it became available for my age group and I already have the 2nd shot scheduled.

Over here in Canada, AstraZeneca is approved (from 30+) despite the chance of blood clots in every 100,000 to 250,000 people, and it's flying off the shelf because we're short of vaccines (We just started our distributions of Pfizer once again - 2M per week or something like that.)

If you're an essential worker in manufacturing, your chances of catching COVID is very, very high so they were getting any vaccines available. (According to the infectious doc on CTV today, COVID causes blood clots in 1 in 20 people, 1 in 5 in hospitalized patients and 1 in 2 in ICUs or something like that. Yet, we still see huge lines to get vaccinated with vaccines, including Astra Zeneca.

Hopefully, with children vaccinated, the percentage is high enough that we'll get some herd protection.

Thank you for mentioning blood clots.



My wife has a genetic blood clotting condition called Factor 5 Leiden (FVL). Once it became known that blood clots were common in COVID infections she immediately scheduled her vaccinations (within the state guidelines of course). Both of our children (adults) were tested for and also have the FVL genetic disorder. To us it was very important to avoid COVID and get all of them vaccinated ASAP.



FYI, somewhere around 5% of the US population has FVL. Most probably do not know it...


https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/diseases/17896-factor-v-leiden

 

[ivinsfan]

There just isn’t an aspect of Covid (or maybe anything these days) that isn’t wrought with disagreement and infighting. Suppose we shouldn’t be surprised the vaccine aspect yields the same us/them as the testing, social distancing, masking, and the reopening aspects have.

I’m thankful for the vaccine. Was an early initiate back in January when I was fortunate to get it. Still, it seems weird to me that we would be driven to be upset by those who choose not to get it. Yes, I suppose it possible the disease could mutate into a new form that renders the current vaccines less effective. But anything is possible. A new Covid coming out of a bat market in Timbuktu is possible. After all, it happened this time. And even if all Americans were held down and injected, the entire world is in play. It could still mutate back in Timbuktu. Or maybe, just maybe, we will be okay.

We can’t control everything. Life offers no guarantees. We each do the best we can. To pretend otherwise is to play God.

Travel restrictions, masking, small businesses going under due to covid restrictions. People in hospital unable to see loved ones at their bedside due to covid visit limits. Children unable to get vaccinated for Covid at this time. Are these enough reasons to not be happy that people "choose" not to be vaccinated? Unless you believe Covid to going mysteriously disappear the way it came, vaccinating is our best weapon to fight off Covid.



We could just wait until enough non vaccinated people get Covid so we hit herd immunity. I'm sure only a few of those people will die or become long haulers...Nothing will make me happier then the day the US has no Covid deaths. We can make it long or we can make it short. We now have the weapon...

 

[teetee]

To be fair, if they really stay home and never see people they aren't a hazard to others, but how many people really do that?

None except those who is not mobile or choose to shut in.

For those who think masks wearing mandate violates their freedom, they will not likely be interested in taking the vaccine. This thread has been evolved into the similar debate, just more civilized so far, except this time it is the vaccine, not masks.

I still don't see a good enough reason not taking the vaccine if you have no known allergic reactions to vaccines in general. Being in fear that you might be extra special that your health will get destroyed by vaccines rather than becoming immune against the virus, when I think about it, is not rational statistically.

It is like saying airplanes, trains, taxis, boats, and bikes are all too dangerous. Even if I walk on the side walk, I can get hit by a stray bullet or a toilet seat from the sky. I am just going to stay inside and wait to see for all the transportation methods to iron out all defects to be absolutely safe before I step outside. No one can say it is illogical, but it is not rational. When you let the unknowns dictate your decisions, it is no longer a rational decision.

 

[NW-Bound]

When you let the unknowns dictate your decisions, it is no longer a rational decision.

+1

Particularly when the suspected unknowns are overwhelmed by the proven knowns.

 

[Dtail]

We have a friend who is a strong anti vaxxer and insisted that with her regimen of vitamins, etc; that she would not get Covid.
Well after she disappeared socially for a few weeks and after grilling from a few of us, she admitted she got Covid, but it was only a mild case.

 

[Another Reader]

Well, it looks like Pfizer is about to apply for full approval. That will be a game changer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/health/pfizer-vaccine-children-approval.html

We still have the issue of immunecompromised people that do not develop antibodies even with two doses. Those folks are potential mutation sources, as likely are at least some Long Covid patients, with persistent virus.

 

[RAE]

It is like saying airplanes, trains, taxis, boats, and bikes are all too dangerous. Even if I walk on the side walk, I can get hit by a stray bullet or a toilet seat from the sky. I am just going to stay inside and wait to see for all the transportation methods to iron out all defects to be absolutely safe before I step outside. No one can say it is illogical, but it is not rational. When you let the unknowns dictate your decisions, it is no longer a rational decision.

I think we are about at the end of this debate/discussion, but I wanted to make one last comment on what you said here. Your comparison is not really valid (in my mind), because the risks of a plane or train crashing (and other things you mention) are well-known, based on many, many years of data on those kinds of events happening. With regard to this vaccine, we only have a few months worth of data. Yes, it has been given to millions of people with few serious side effects so far, but it's still only based on a few months worth of data. It would not be surprising if other side effects (or other unknowns regarding the vaccine) are discovered after it has been used for a longer period of time (and that has happened with other vaccines, by the way). Hopefully nothing serious will turn up, but we simply can't say that with a high degree of certainty at this point. So, I would reject your conclusion that everyone who chooses to not get the vaccine is not being rational.

 

[audreyh1]

Well, it looks like Pfizer is about to apply for full approval. That will be a game changer.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/04/health/pfizer-vaccine-children-approval.html

We still have the issue of immunecompromised people that do not develop antibodies even with two doses. Those folks are potential mutation sources, as likely are at least some Long Covid patients, with persistent virus.

OK! Moving right along!

Pfizer expects to apply to the Food and Drug Administration in September for emergency authorization to administer its coronavirus vaccine to children between the ages of 2 and 11, the company told Wall Street analysts and reporters on Tuesday during its quarterly earnings call.

The company said it also plans to apply this month for full approval of the vaccine for use in people from ages 16 to 85. And it said it expected to have clinical trial data on the safety of its vaccine in pregnant women by early August.

By early next week, the F.D.A. is expected to issue an emergency use authorization allowing the vaccine to be used in children 12 to 15 years old, a major step ahead in the U.S. fight against Covid.

 

[teetee]

I think we are about at the end of this debate/discussion, but I wanted to make one last comment on what you said here. Your comparison is not really valid (in my mind), because the risks of a plane or train crashing (and other things you mention) are well-known, based on many, many years of data on those kinds of events happening. With regard to this vaccine, we only have a few months worth of data. Yes, it has been given to millions of people with few serious side effects so far, but it's still only based on a few months worth of data. It would not be surprising if other side effects (or other unknowns regarding the vaccine) are discovered after it has been used for a longer period of time (and that has happened with other vaccines, by the way). Hopefully nothing serious will turn up, but we simply can't say that with a high degree of certainty at this point. So, I would reject your conclusion that everyone who chooses to not get the vaccine is not being rational.

Just curious: What would be a good time threshold for you to think the vaccine is reliable?

How are you going to defend that threshold if another person says no, it should be at least twice as long?

Should we perhaps set the minimum threshold to one generation (30yrs?) So some of us can still be alive to receive it and telling ourselves it is safe?

This is the exact unknown factor I tried to convey in my previous example. The statistical historic data won't mean much if there is no alternative with different statistics.

 

[kjpliny]

Just curious: What would be a good time threshold for you to think the vaccine is reliable?

How are you going to defend that threshold if another person says no, it should be at least twice as long?

Should we perhaps set the minimum threshold to one generation (30yrs?) So some of us can still be alive to receive it and telling ourselves it is safe?

This is the exact unknown factor I tried to convey in my previous example. The statistical historic data won't mean much if there is no alternative with different statistics.

For each person, this time will be different depending on their personal situation, their comfort level with the data and their risk tolerance. Some may want to wait a few more months, some may wait a year or two, and some may never make the decision. It is entirely up to them of course.

 

[RAE]

For each person, this time will be different depending on their personal situation, their comfort level with the data and their risk tolerance. Some may want to wait a few more months, some may wait a year or two, and some may never make the decision. It is entirely up to them of course.

Yes, I agree. I have not said that I will never get the vaccine; only that I choose to not get it at this time, based on my personal situation.

 

[ivinsfan]

For each person, this time will be different depending on their personal situation, their comfort level with the data and their risk tolerance. Some may want to wait a few more months, some may wait a year or two, and some may never make the decision. It is entirely up to them of course.

And of course one would hope that Covid would be accepting of your personal time line.

 

[RobbieB]

My decision to get vacc'ed was easy. I want to return to "life before"

 

[Mark1]

Well, there are different ways to get to herd immunity and with imported cases and vaccine resistors it isn't realistic to think that the virus is going to fade away entirely. I think there is clustering of folks who don't want the vaccine so there will likely be a potential for severe localized outbreaks. The virus is pretty efficient and it will get to many of the unvaccinated eventually.

+1. It might take a few years, but we will get there.

My decision to get vacc'ed was easy. I want to return to "life before"

+1. No way I'm waiting a few more years, I went from exclusive curbside pickup shopping to now eating/drinking in restaurants/microbreweries many times a week with friends.

 

[audreyh1]

Right now the entire globe is the repository for the SARS-CoV-2 virus. And while it keeps spreading it has opportunities to mutate. The US only has a certain amount of protection as long as other parts of the world are on fire. This whole process of bringing it down to low levels everywhere will take years. Question to me is how many travelers does it take to overwhelm whatever localized immunity the US achieves. I guess we’ll find out.

 

[Freedom56]

Some evidence that the AstraZeneca and the Chinese COVID vaccines are not effective as the mRNA vaccines. Cases are surging in the most vaccinated nation with 62.2% of the population fully vaccinated.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/poli...ated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

 

[audreyh1]

Some evidence that the AstraZeneca and the Chinese COVID vaccines are not effective as the mRNA vaccines. Cases are surging in the most vaccinated nation with 62.2% of the population fully vaccinated.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/poli...ated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

Well that’s very disappointing!

It would only get worse with a bunch of tourists arriving.

 

[Chuckanut]

Not every mutation is a vaccine defying super virus. Most are not much. Some are less powerful than the original.

So far the vaccines seem to be able to handle all the variants. If that changes, I’ll adjust. And I’ll be glad I did more normal things when I had the chance - that’s today.

 

[NW-Bound]

Some evidence that the AstraZeneca and the Chinese COVID vaccines are not effective as the mRNA vaccines. Cases are surging in the most vaccinated nation with 62.2% of the population fully vaccinated.

https://www.bloombergquint.com/poli...ated-nation-reintroduces-curbs-as-cases-surge

Well that’s very disappointing!

It would only get worse with a bunch of tourists arriving.

That place called the most vaccinated nation is Seychelles, an archipelago of 115 islands and less than 100,000 inhabitants. It already opened up to tourists.

From https://www.travelandleisure.com/travel-news/seychelles-opening-tourist-covid-restrictions.

The Seychelles opened to all fully vaccinated travelers, including those from the U.S., in January. The 115-island paradise, where Prince William and Kate Middleton honeymooned, was the first African country to welcome vaccinated travelers, according to CNBC. It hopes to reach herd immunity by mid-March, when 70% of the local population is expected to be vaccinated, the AP reported.

Visitors to the Seychelles, where George and Amal Clooney also honeymooned, will need to maintain social distance while relaxing on the country's white-sand beaches and frolicking in its turquoise waters. And don't forget to pack a face mask, as they're still required.

 

[audreyh1]

So the residents got vaccinated, but have had a bunch of tourists arriving since January, have a big covid surge, and now have to go into a 2 week lockdown? How is that going to work?

Well according to Travel and Leisure magazine they opened to all international tourists except South Africa beginning March 25. That timing is a lot closer to the current surge.

The destination plans to welcome all international visitors, except those from South Africa, beginning March 25, according to the Department of Tourism. Visitors won't need to quarantine or be vaccinated, but they will have to test negative for COVID-19 within 72 hours of their departure.

Oh, well, I guess they thought they were going to lick COVID too and reach herd immunity by mid-March. https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coron...covid-19-herd-immunity-by-mid-march-1.5331451