How many active years do I have left?

[Out of Steam]

My wife and I (75 and 77, respectively) were talking about this the other day. We don’t seem to have returned all the way to our pre-COVID levels of activity.

I sometimes do weekday hikes (relatively flat terrain, 3-5 miles) with a group of seniors. That seems to be about the age where people start dropping out, though there are a few hiking in their early 80s.

 

[FREE866]

Yeah, this seems pretty optimistic...tells me I'll live to 101!


What's interesting is that my healthy lifestyle ---exercise, healthy eating, sleep, etc is BECAUSE I retired at 50!


When I was working my exercise schedule was ok, not great because of time constraints due to the 50+ hour workweek! I also feel that the stress of work affected sleep as well.

 

[ncbill]

Ridiculously optimistic.

What I call Lake Wobegone syndrome..."where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."

You're not that special...look to SS data for your remaining life expectancy.

 

[aja8888]

No, I got 101.5. Scary that!

I guess I didn't try hard enough!

 

[RobbieB]

Raised my life expectancy to 96 and 25 more healthy years.

Cool, more boating time!

 

[NW-Bound]

Ridiculously optimistic.

What I call Lake Wobegone syndrome..."where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."

You're not that special...look to SS data for your remaining life expectancy.

That's exactly right. Not everyone can be special.

We all share the above thought, but we don't want to put down fellow posters so as not to depress them.

 

[RobbieB]

Yeah, I was thinking 90.

 

[Car-Guy]

I'm not saying my numbers were low but after running the calculator,

During my last doctors appointment I asked if I could just make these annual visits. He looked at me and said, your an optimist one aren't you.

I don't look for expiration dates on my beer anymore.

When I buy a CD, 30 days is long term

I stopped buying green bananas.

When I use a fountain pen, I want fast drying ink.

 

[skyking1]

Yeah, I was thinking 90.

I'd be pleased to be upright and functional till then.

 

[RetMD21]

Ridiculously optimistic.

What I call Lake Wobegone syndrome..."where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."

You're not that special...look to SS data for your remaining life expectancy.

SS doesn't differentiate smoking and other important risk factors

 

[rodi]

I know some people who did really well and lived completely independently until their very late 80s. They had a few health scares along the way, but overcame them.

I know (or have known) several seniors who were in great health/active until - boom - one day they weren't. Broken hips over age 80 seem to be a common denomenator.... a decline happens after.

Stepmom is alive at 95, but bedridden. She was an active college professor 6 years ago, driving 2 years ago, and still super active until 2 years ago. Now she's in hospice. It was sudden.

MIL is almost 96. Has had dementia for 8 years and been in memory care for 7 years. Physically, her heart is healthy, she's just started being wheelchair bound... but her mind is mush.

A woman I walk with and have for 8 years is 82. She's declined in the last few years... started out needing walking poles. She doesn't come out daily anymore. No longer walks on the sand for balance/fatigue issues. Definitely more scattered, mentally, than she was. The decline has been obvious.

 

[rodi]

It says I'll live till 97 with 4 1/2 bad years. But it didn't ask *any* family history questions.

Mom died at 67 of cancer.
Dad beat cancer in his 50's, died of a different cancer at 77.
Brother beat melanoma in his 20, and died of a different cancer at 48.
3 of 4 grandparents died in their 60's or 70's... all of cancer. The 4th hit 91, but also died of cancer. None had dementia.
My family is it's own little cancer cluster.

Hubby's family is the opposite - everone lives till their 90's... but all have dementia for several years prior to dying.

Family history is important in these type of calculators. This one is worthless clickbait.

 

[F.I.R.E User]

Results

Your predicted future healthy years is 47.3 Years
Your Relative Healthy Life Expectancy is about 19.0% above Average
Your predicted future unhealthy years is 3.2 Years
Your predicted future total years of living is 50.5 Years i.e. Your predicted age at death is 44 + 50.5 (Current Age + Life Expectancy) = 94.5 Years
Your predicted future unhealthy years, if disabled by a cognitive disease, is 5.6 Years

This site is very basic. Is there a more through site?

 

[RunningBum]

Ridiculously optimistic.

What I call Lake Wobegone syndrome..."where all the women are strong, all the men are good-looking, and all the children are above average."

You're not that special...look to SS data for your remaining life expectancy.

I don't base my retirement chances on remaining life expectancy. Far too easy to outlive this. I use stuff like this to determine a realistic "worst" case. Will I live to be 99? Probably not. Could I live to be 99? Yeah, that's not out of reach. So I make my plans for just in case I live to an age in this range. Fortunately I didn't have to slave away at a job a dozen extra years to cover this. I have empathy for those who have to make such a decision.

If you think my take is ridiculous, we'll just disagree. You don't have input into my plan, and I really don't care what your plan is, unless you run out of money and are screaming for the government to help you out because you didn't consider that you could possibly live to 90.

That said, this was a pretty light attempt to estimate anyone's longevity. If the term GIGO still used? Garbage In, Garbage Out. Maybe it's GAGIGO. Garbage Asked, ...

 

[jldavid47]

I know (or have known) several seniors who were in great health/active until - boom - one day they weren't. Broken hips over age 80 seem to be a common denominator.... a decline happens after

I played bridge at the club just before Thanksgiving with a 92 year old who was still sharp as a tack and very able physically. It was the last time I saw him. He fell the following week and less then 3 months later died. You just don't know.

 

[jldavid47]

I don't base my retirement chances on remaining life expectancy. Far too easy to outlive this. I use stuff like this to determine a realistic "worst" case. Will I live to be 99? Probably not. Could I live to be 99? Yeah, that's not out of reach. So I make my plans for just in case I live to an age in this range.

+1

This is what I do as well. My planning spreadsheet goes out to age 100. I do not expect to be around that long although my paternal grandmother died one week short of her 103rd birthday so who knows?

 

[RetMD21]

That said, this was a pretty light attempt to estimate anyone's longevity. If the term GIGO still used? Garbage In, Garbage Out. Maybe it's GAGIGO. Garbage Asked, ...

I think most people missed this in the OP

The Goldenson Center’s calculator is admittedly still a work in progress. It’s still too early to say to what extent their findings are accurate and as they refine their calculator, there could be potential to add categories.

This calculator tries to account for some of the factors important to longevity and independence. It's not perfect.

For planning, I think the SSA lifetables are inadequate for folks who are healthier than average. For example, SSA predicts a negligible 4% survival to 100 for 1 member of a couple of a couple who are 65. The Society of Actuaries table gives a 16% probability. I think the difference is important but that's just me.


source: How Much Can I Spend in Retirement, Wade Pfau p 46

 

[Katsmeow]

I know (or have known) several seniors who were in great health/active until - boom - one day they weren't. Broken hips over age 80 seem to be a common denomenator.... a decline happens after.

For years my mother was living independently on her own. She did have health problems -- diabetic, kidney disease, heart failure -- but they just didn't seem to really slow her down that much. She was 93 and still driving, mentally fine, etc. She was just about to turn 94. Two and a half months later she was dead.

There was just a sudden cascading effect. She got weak and ended up in the hospital for a few days. Then went home and had low blood sugar and ended up back in the hospital and then rehab. She got weaker. Then she got pneumonia.

The thing is that 3 months before she died I would have thought she had at least a few more years left. And then she didn't.

Another close relative just died at 93. About 4 years before she was active, living on her own and mostly good health. Then she fell and broke her hip. She recovered from that fine but lost a lot of weight and got delirium and ended up in a nursing home. Everyone thought it was dementia. And, then she recovered and her mental faculties returned and she went back home and lived on her own another 4 years. Then she started getting weak, had trouble swallowing and ended up in the hospital. A few weeks later she was gone.

Anyway, in both of these cases they seemed fine and independent until just suddenly they weren't and then they died. Almost shocking how quickly it happened.

 

[NW-Bound]

I played bridge at the club just before Thanksgiving with a 92 year old who was still sharp as a tack and very able physically. It was the last time I saw him. He fell the following week and less then 3 months later died. You just don't know.

Not a bad way to end a life. I would not mind getting that.

 

[ncbill]

I don't base my retirement chances on remaining life expectancy. Far too easy to outlive this. I use stuff like this to determine a realistic "worst" case. Will I live to be 99? Probably not. Could I live to be 99? Yeah, that's not out of reach. So I make my plans for just in case I live to an age in this range. Fortunately I didn't have to slave away at a job a dozen extra years to cover this. I have empathy for those who have to make such a decision.

If you think my take is ridiculous, we'll just disagree. You don't have input into my plan, and I really don't care what your plan is, unless you run out of money and are screaming for the government to help you out because you didn't consider that you could possibly live to 90.

That said, this was a pretty light attempt to estimate anyone's longevity. If the term GIGO still used? Garbage In, Garbage Out. Maybe it's GAGIGO. Garbage Asked, ...

If you make it there, you won't be doing much in your 90s. Few would still be driving, so there's that savings.

An inexpensive life if you manage to stay in your home..."running out of money" is FUD for those here who have planned for their retirement.

And as others point out, once you make it there you needn't worry about lingering months or years once something does happen.

 

[timbervest]

Interestingly if I enter what I think is my healthy weight and choose all the healthiest choices for each question I max out at 103.5 years old.

 

[RunningBum]

If you make it there, you won't be doing much in your 90s. Few would still be driving, so there's that savings.

An inexpensive life if you manage to stay in your home..."running out of money" is FUD for those here who have planned for their retirement.

And as others point out, once you make it there you needn't worry about lingering months or years once something does happen.

Apparently you haven't priced memory care, especially when mobility is lost. Not so inexpensive, if that happens to me like it has my mother. As I said before, you worry about yourself. Don't tell me what I needn't worry about.

 

[braumeister]

Apparently you haven't priced memory care

This is the scary part. I was paying nearly $6K a month for my mom's memory care, ten years ago in a low COL area. And that was just the basic charge, independent of medications, etc.

 

[ncbill]

Apparently you haven't priced memory care, especially when mobility is lost. Not so inexpensive, if that happens to me like it has my mother. As I said before, you worry about yourself. Don't tell me what I needn't worry about.

If you're worried about LTC costs you can buy gold-plated insurance even now.

Not cheap...you might have to drop $250,000 or more for generous daily coverage plus fixed COLA (3% or 5%) plus an unlimited duration rider.

But using up retirement savings to pay for those costs?

Forget it...I'd rather have the money go to my heirs.

That's after seeing mom diagnosed around age 50 and spending the next ~15 years institutionalized, a small part in memory care but most of that simply lying in a bed, unable to communicate.

Which is why my health care POA is so restrictive...any terminal illness, including dementia, only palliative care is permitted.

In my dotage, I'm content to let me first infection be my last rather than seek to eke out a few more years at my family's expense.

Though my general point was retirees should spend retirement money while younger...the successful early retirees I've know were all retired from work in their 50s but their days of extensive travel were over by around age 70 simply due to increasing physical limitations.

 

[RetMD21]

Though my general point was retirees should spend retirement money while younger...the successful early retirees I've know were all retired from work in their 50s but their days of extensive travel were over by around age 70 simply due to increasing physical limitations.

Many will spend less with age but I don't understand why you object to RunningBum's preferences.