are home generators going to be unavoidable in the future?

[NW-Bound]

People who contemplate or may simply be curious about DIY solar+battery systems can watch the YouTube channel by David Poz.

This fellow is not an engineer (you don't need to be one to DIY a solar system), but he has done more tinkering and building stuff than other YouTube channels I have run across. He actually tries to go off-grid and I don't know if he has cut the cord, but he knows it's really tough to do so in the winter when his panels are covered with snow. He has investigated and built several specialized generators to charge his battery when the PV panels cannot deliver.

I have lost track of how many large batteries he has built from used lithium cells. It is obvious that he keeps on building to have material for his channel, and must have given away or sold his older batteries.

 

[GaryInCO]

I am not going to install any lithium battery inside the home or garage. The risk may be small, but we keep reading about EVs of various makes burning down people's home, and I would think EV makers know more about batteries.

And that's why I have them in a backyard garden shed.

There's nothing wrong with putting batteries in a shed. But all those reports you read about EV fires say more about sensationalist reporting than about EV battery fires.

Data from the NTSB says ICE cars have roughly 60x more fires than EVs, and hybrids are worse. That suggests you should be more worried about your ICE car than your battery.

https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/

Now it's true that IF you do get an EV fire, it's a b**** to put out. Basically you have to let it burn itself out, which takes a while. Not ideal if it's in your garage. That's true for LiIon batteries; LFP batteries are safer and less fire-prone.

 

[NW-Bound]

Data from the NTSB says ICE cars have roughly 60x more fires than EVs, and hybrids are worse. That suggests you should be more worried about your ICE car than your battery.

https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/

.

I know of the above statistics. I also know that many of the ICE cars are old and decrepit, while the EVs are still relatively new.

One thing about the statistics that I have been looking for is the nature of the fire of ICE cars. It makes a difference whether the fire is caused by an accident or with the engine running, or a spontaneous fire that happens when the car is parked, unattended, and not moving.

 

[NW-Bound]

Speaking of the fire hazard with the NMC type, a few years ago I read of the invention of a new type of material for the electrode separator. This new type, when heated above a certain temperature, changes its characteristic and becomes impermeable to the ion flow. What it does is to stop the thermal runaway problem of the Li-ion cell.

I don't know if this type has been put into production, and how common it is.

 

[OldShooter]

I know of the above statistics. I also know that many of the ICE cars are old and decrepit, while the EVs are still relatively new.

One thing about the statistics that I have been looking for is the nature of the fire of ICE cars. It makes a difference whether the fire is caused by an accident or with the engine running, or a spontaneous fire that happens when the car is parked, unattended, and not moving.

A career in high tech taught me that it is the guys out front who have the arrows in their chests. I am grateful for the early adopters/aka test subjects and will wait for a few more years to see how things turn out. In this market, that also leaves time for further improvements in battery safety and energy density, both of which appear to be needed.

 

[NW-Bound]

Li-ion cells generally do not self-combust under normal use within their specified operating range. Usually, problems are caused when their safe operating envelope is breached.

To ensure that the cells are not abused, all applications require a BMS (battery management system) to watch over the voltage, current, and temperature of each cell. The problem is that the electronic circuit of the BMS employs many ICs and they can fail.

I don't know about the rate of failures of BMS built into the EV battery packs, but on the surplus market there are a lot of battery packs for power tools and other industrial applications that are sold dirt cheap because their BMS fail. Hobbyists buy them to open them up and salvage the good cells.

I would think that the electronics should outlast the cells, but ICs are not as reliable as they used to be. Years ago, I read of corner cutting in the semiconductor fabs in China, and the clean room and manufacturing processes are not kept up-to-snuff. Could that be a reason electronics don't last as long now?

 

[OldShooter]

... I would think that the electronics should outlast the cells, but ICs are not as reliable as they used to be. Years ago, I read of corner cutting in the semiconductor fabs in China, and the clean room and manufacturing processes are not kept up-to-snuff. Could that be a reason electronics don't last as long now?

Not sure where you get your "not as reliable" fact. Re fabs, any fab strives for perfection because shortcomings reduce process yields. Fewer good chips for the same amount of money spent. It has little to do with the reliability of product that tests good. So any thought of cutting corners is economic suicide for a fab manager.

 

[NW-Bound]

Not sure where you get your "not as reliable" fact. Re fabs, any fab strives for perfection because shortcomings reduce process yields. Fewer good chips for the same amount of money spent. It has little to do with the reliability of product that tests good. So any thought of cutting corners is economic suicide for a fab manager.

What I read about was that the wafer was not properly processed to completely clean off various chemicals that were used in the manufacturing process. The minute contaminants left behind eventually caused the chips to fail.

The bad fabs knew this, but did not care if the chips failed after 5-10 years, because electronic product life is short nowadays. You don't get brownie points for making things that last forever because the buyers do not know nor care. The problem is it will cause some infant mortalities. A small percentage of chips will randomly fail prematurely.

Semi-fabs use huge amounts of ultra-pure water. It is said that Taiwan Semiconductor uses 8 gallons of water for each chip!

 

[NW-Bound]

For a quick summary, the interested can read this 1995 article: https://sst.semiconductor-digest.co...-affects-the-reliability-of-microelectronics/

Excerpts:

Reliability problems are often associated with contamination. Defects that are not severe enough to cause a chip to fail at initial testing, thus not enough to cause yield losses, can become more severe as the chip ages...

 

[OldShooter]

What I read about was that the wafer was not properly processed to completely clean off various chemicals that were used in the manufacturing process. The minute contaminants left behind eventually caused the chips to fail.

The bad fabs knew this, but did not care if the chips failed after 5-10 years, because electronic product life is short nowadays. You don't get brownie points for making things that last forever because the buyers do not know nor care. The problem is it will cause some infant mortalities. A small percentage of chips will randomly fail prematurely. ...

Quite a story. Fab engineers that I know would find it quite funny, as would customer QC engineers. I spent about 10 years in that business, but you have too much misinformation there for me to deal with in detail. Sorry.

Semi-fabs use huge amounts of ultra-pure water. It is said that Taiwan Semiconductor uses 8 gallons of water for each chip!

Yes. The fact that people even consider building fabs in Phoenix is one of life's mysteries for me.

 

[Spock]

...
I would think that the electronics should outlast the cells, but ICs are not as reliable as they used to be. Years ago, I read of corner cutting in the semiconductor fabs in China, and the clean room and manufacturing processes are not kept up-to-snuff. Could that be a reason electronics don't last as long now?

I worked for a while at a well known (but will remain nameless here) maker of turbofan engines and APUs for large and small jet aircraft.
On the biz jet side (smaller engines, lower volume) we had a multi-year executive driven project to replace the mil-spec ceramic packaged microprocessors in the FADEC (full authority digital engine controller) with the cheaper plastic commercial equivalent.


The status meetings to report progress were agonizing with all of the engineers shaking their heads and muttering (AFTER the exec had left the meeting) about how stupid this was. The cost savings between the two packages (something like $5 per part) was overwhelmed just by the salaries in the conference room for ONE status meeting, let alone the cost of processing the EC paperwork with the FAA.



Another factor hitting the news lately is counterfeit parts. A cheap rubber stamped logo on the outside of the chip and you can't visually separate the counterfeits from the FAA qualified part.


Lastly sucking down quality is the old problem of sorting parts. All of the processors of a given generation are made on the same wafer and fab line. After the working parts are cut from the wafer and packaged, they are run through various tests. Parts that work at (for example only) 5GHz but fail at 10GHz are sold as 5GHz parts when in reality they are failed 10GHz parts. The sloppier this testing gets, but more weak 10GHz parts you get without any fab changes.

 

[NW-Bound]

I worked for a while at a well known (but will remain nameless here) maker of turbofan engines and APUs for large and small jet aircraft.
On the biz jet side (smaller engines, lower volume) we had a multi-year executive driven project to replace the mil-spec ceramic packaged microprocessors in the FADEC (full authority digital engine controller) with the cheaper plastic commercial equivalent.

The status meetings to report progress were agonizing with all of the engineers shaking their heads and muttering (AFTER the exec had left the meeting) about how stupid this was. The cost savings between the two packages (something like $5 per part) was overwhelmed just by the salaries in the conference room for ONE status meeting, let alone the cost of processing the EC paperwork with the FAA...

Your story does not surprise me.

And if people tried to cut corners with a flight-critical system, we can imagine what cost cuttings go into consumer products. They say, eh, it does not matter, and people will throw this into a landfill in 3-4 years anyway. The problem is when the BMS of an electric scooter fails and burns down an apartment complex, hey, life's tough.

Another factor hitting the news lately is counterfeit parts. A cheap rubber stamped logo on the outside of the chip and you can't visually separate the counterfeits from the FAA qualified part...

I thought this has been going on forever. I first read about counterfeit parts for aerospace apps 25 years ago.

Relating to this battery+inverter business, I will recount the story of my repair of a blown-out inverter (caused by my error). I needed to get 8 of these TI CD19505 MOSFETs. They are rated at 200A continuous, 400A surge, yet all 8 of them had their leads vaporised in an instant by my lithium bank. No, none of the circuit breakers had time to pop. Amazing.

Anyway, I wanted to buy genuine replacements, but this happened during Covid, and none of the US distributors had this transistor in stock. On the Web, I found a Chinese distributor that had a high rating by US buyers, so I ordered 10 from him. Plus, I order some more from an Aliexpress seller, whose price was about 1/2.

The only thing I could measure easily to verify was the Rds of 2.3 milli-ohms of the transistor. The respected distributor parts came in just right. All right! More than the cost of the parts, the work going into extracting the blown transistors and implanting the new ones was darn painful.

You can guess about the cheaper parts. Well, these were probably some cheaper MOSFETS in the same family which were remarked to be sold as the bigger ones. They could still be used for lower power apps, so I kept them.

PS. Had I used the inferior MOSFETs, the inverter would most likely get resurrected fine. For a while, that is. The higher Rds would cause higher heat dissipation when the inverter got loaded to its rated power, and the transistors would burn up. This repaired inverter is on the 2nd summer, and is still running. Fingers crossed.

 

[NW-Bound]

Quite a story. Fab engineers that I know would find it quite funny, as would customer QC engineers. I spent about 10 years in that business, but you have too much misinformation there for me to deal with in detail. Sorry.

I first read about early failures of IC chips caused by inadequate processes back in the 90s, when I was still working. And back then, I still subscribed to a few IEEE periodicals, plus industry publications. As I recalled, this was prompted by observed high premature failures of chips coming from China, which was producing more and more chips for the world. The early failure phenomenon caused people to scratch their head.

I never worked in the solid-state industry. Maybe these guys were just trying to be funny.

Yes. The fact that people even consider building fabs in Phoenix is one of life's mysteries for me.

The 8 gallons to wash each chip will not be discarded. TSM will recycle this water using reverse osmosis (RO). And the power to do RO will come from solar energy, which is available here nearly year round. And by storing the water, they don't need to run the plant at night when the sun does not shine. So, no humongous battery is needed, unlike other electric uses.

 

[ls99]

RE: bogus parts. Waay back in the 70ies, there was a guy running parts on Canal street in NY. He had two barrels of low power transistors, one each of NPN and PNP, when an order came in he just stamped whatever number was ordered on the unit(s).

 

[Koolau]

I worked for a while at a well known (but will remain nameless here) maker of turbofan engines and APUs for large and small jet aircraft.
On the biz jet side (smaller engines, lower volume) we had a multi-year executive driven project to replace the mil-spec ceramic packaged microprocessors in the FADEC (full authority digital engine controller) with the cheaper plastic commercial equivalent.

The status meetings to report progress were agonizing with all of the engineers shaking their heads and muttering (AFTER the exec had left the meeting) about how stupid this was. The cost savings between the two packages (something like $5 per part) was overwhelmed just by the salaries in the conference room for ONE status meeting, let alone the cost of processing the EC paperwork with the FAA.

Another factor hitting the news lately is counterfeit parts. A cheap rubber stamped logo on the outside of the chip and you can't visually separate the counterfeits from the FAA qualified part.


Lastly sucking down quality is the old problem of sorting parts. All of the processors of a given generation are made on the same wafer and fab line. After the working parts are cut from the wafer and packaged, they are run through various tests. Parts that work at (for example only) 5GHz but fail at 10GHz are sold as 5GHz parts when in reality they are failed 10GHz parts. The sloppier this testing gets, but more weak 10GHz parts you get without any fab changes.

Your story of demand for cost-cutting to the determent of company and customers reminds me of a situation at my division of my Megacorp. Our plant manger held quarterly meetings of all staff personnel. One of these meetings, he was into cost cutting. His solution: Making fewer copies. SO: Every time one of us made a copy (or copies) we had to fill out a log that described the document being copied. How many copies were being made. The reason for making the copies (I forget what else.) I back-of-the envelope calculated that an average copy run (let's say 10 copies) the documentation cost more than the copies in time spent (oh, and monthly routing of the documentation.) People dutifully filled out the forms for a couple of months and then noticed that nothing happened. So, eventually the whole stupid thing just sort of went away. We never heard about it again.

I always hated it when a manager got some "big idea" and then forced it on us. It never w*rked and it always cost a lot of time and money and made things worse. Yet, we couldn't get support for our own good ideas from that level of management. Still can't believe that Megacorp made any money, but they did (thank goodness - did I mention that my old Megacorp stock is making me a small (well, medium) fortune?)


Returning you now...

 

[NW-Bound]

The 8 gallons to wash each chip will not be discarded. TSM will recycle this water using reverse osmosis (RO). And the power to do RO will come from solar energy, which is available here nearly year round. And by storing the water, they don't need to run the plant at night when the sun does not shine. So, no humongous battery is needed, unlike other electric uses.

I meant to say "the RO treatment plant". The fab of course cannot stop at night.

 

[Chuckanut]

A comment on another thread about low cost taxpayer subsidized EV leases in Washington state caused me to think about where the electricity will come from.

Be careful. Washington state is headed to an electric power shortage within about 5 years. Lack of replacement generating ability and lack of adequate transmission lines seems to be in the work.

This year for the first time, I was advised by the utility company to reduce the temperature on my home during the coldest part of the Winter (at or under freezing for most of the week) to prevent overloading the electrical network. In my 40+ years in the state this is the first time I have received such a warning.

Washington State’s Approaching Energy Crisis – Good Intentions Gone Wrong?

WA State has trouble on the horizon – with its electrical grid, as in not being reliable, and as in risk of rolling blackouts. The trouble stems from decarbonizing. Getting rid of coal is the low-hanging fruit, but just getting rid of it without a real plan to replace it can do more harm than good.

www.forbes.com

 

[REWahoo]

My back up plan is not a generator. It's my car and a list of hotels. That'll work for a few days if needed.

The winter storm that hit us in February of 2021 wiped out power for hundreds of miles around us and lasted for days. That's why we had (and still have) a generator, portable electric heaters and a couple of window air conditioners.

 

[Chuckanut]

I am seriously thinking of getting a solar generator just to provide enough electricity to cook some warm food and run some lights if they cut off my power in the winter. I can't put solar on my roof, but I could spread a small panel out on my deck and use it to charge a battery that could power a few lights and a small coffee pot.

 

[dixonge]

This is one heck of a deal: 57 kWh of LFP cells, made in Japan, new unused surplus, for $7000.

That's $123/kWh for raw cells, compared to paying $4000 for a turn-key 14 kWh battery, or more than $10K (installation included) for a Tesla Powerwall with 13.5 kWh.

Shipping is not cheap as the pallet weighs 1280 lbs. FOB California.

Crazy price difference - didn't realize how expensive the PowerWalls were!

I am not going to install any lithium battery inside the home or garage. The risk may be small, but we keep reading about EVs of various makes burning down people's home, and I would think EV makers know more about batteries.

And that's why I have them in a backyard garden shed.

Smart. This guy found out the hard way...

House burned down

So, after 4 to 5 years of working flawless, the 100 kwh lifepo4 battery caught fire at night and burned our house down. Luckily our family just made in out on time. Inspection of the fire expert revealed that a melt fuse melted, and created an arc between the 2 points wich ultimatly started the...

diysolarforum.com

I am now the proud owner of a home generator! I paid $400.

OK, it's not much of a generator. Around 100 amp-hours. It's portable for camping and stuff, and we can run our new electric cooler and charge devices if the power goes out. Plus we have solar panels to recharge it! But we'll only need it at night since our apartment is being run off of four large panels during the day.

Back when we lived in Tx in the late 90's or early 2000's there was a storm that cleaned out a lot of dead branches in the trees and they took out a lot of power lines. Power was out for 2-3 days. Borrowed a friend's small generator. Kept the fridge running, that was about it. Swore to get my own after that. Never did. Until now! lol

 

[Texas Proud]

Wow... I wonder who thought up the idea of calling a large battery a 'generator

A generator has to actually generate something... a batter just supplies the power it has stored...

I guess it is great marketing as people are buying them...

 

[Sunset]

I am seriously thinking of getting a solar generator just to provide enough electricity to cook some warm food and run some lights if they cut off my power in the winter. I can't put solar on my roof, but I could spread a small panel out on my deck and use it to charge a battery that could power a few lights and a small coffee pot.

We have no electricity at our cabin, and recently added some solar (small scale). I use solar panels (4x100watts) to feed my solar battery "generator" which has 1,500 Wh capacity.
That solar battery is enough for charging all our devices and running an e-kooler for 60 days without fail, but sometimes it got pretty low when cloudy days were in a row.

It would fail making coffee.. I use a propane stove to do that, as heating up something uses an immense amount of electricity.
A small propane camp stove would be the answer to cook.

 

[JackJester]

Would love to go full solar off grid at home but for now I snagged a lithium power pack with 180w solar panel. This is mainly to drive my fishing trolling motor for a week off grid in remote British Columbia. Baby steps. Powerbox+ 135 Waterproof Solar Generator, 12V 135Ah DL+ 1,000CCA Battery Included

 

[dixonge]

Wow... I wonder who thought up the idea of calling a large battery a 'generator

A generator has to actually generate something... a batter just supplies the power it has stored...

I guess it is great marketing as people are buying them...

Does a solar generator generate solar? Or is it a generator powered by the sun?
Marketing-speak is interesting...

We have no electricity at our cabin, and recently added some solar (small scale). I use solar panels (4x100watts) to feed my solar battery "generator" which has 1,500 Wh capacity.
That solar battery is enough for charging all our devices and running an e-kooler for 60 days without fail, but sometimes it got pretty low when cloudy days were in a row.

It would fail making coffee.. I use a propane stove to do that, as heating up something uses an immense amount of electricity.
A small propane camp stove would be the answer to cook.

We have had to make many choices like that, just for our 'car camping' plans (I still think of it as 'overlanding' because our car has 4x4 but that's a whole 'nother topic). We got a camp stove in spite of my tech brain really wanting an induction cooktop. We have passed (for now) on Starlink because it requires a decent amount of watts to run. Instead we will be using a little battery-powered hockey-puck sized HomeFi cellular router. Electric cooler and diesel heater were conscious choices that fit within our power budget calculations. (this required many YouTube videos measuring actual watts used overnight)
I think we will be just using warm-to-hot water from propane stove for instant coffee. Electric kettle also uses way too much electricity...

 

[Chuckanut]

Wow... I wonder who thought up the idea of calling a large battery a 'generator

A generator has to actually generate something... a batter just supplies the power it has stored...

I guess it is great marketing as people are buying them...

I suppose the solar cells are the generator part of these gadgets.